The 6 Nations - Potenial Edge

Mellor · 24-01-2008 10:43am #1

So the rugby world cup wasn't too long ago, and a few of us had a nice run. Most of the bookies had a huge mistake. The handicapps were easy enough to pick and the in-running was massive +EV. Total points is an easy IR market.

So, I am hoping to continue this for the 6 nations. At the start of the 6 nations I daid that betting against Ireland in the handicap group matchs would be good, as they were over-priced and because PP, Boyles or similar will recieve more money on ireland than other team, so its better for they to weight it away from ireland. Does that make sense?
Ireland lost all the handicaps btw.

So, I'm thinking that a running thread for bets on the 6 nations might be a good idea. Its a week to go so getting it up for the weekend before is best. I'll start it off I suppose.

Week one

France vrs Scotland --- France (-5pts) to Win. 10/11
Ireland vrs Italy --- Ireland (-18pts) to win 10/11

I'd rather bet €20 on France than a tenner on each.

ArmaniJeanss · 24-01-2008 12:25pm

Mellor wrote: »

France vrs Scotland --- France (-5pts) to Win. 10/11

Thought for a minute there that France were being asked to only give up 5 at home.
Sadly this game is in Murrayfield.

Mellor · 24-01-2008 12:44pm

Yeah, they are away, still a nice HC imo.
boyles have it at -6
and the england games is -14

WH BONNEY · 24-01-2008 1:33pm

I take on board your comments regarding the recent world cup but I am of the opinion that in general the bookies are usually quite good on there handicaps.

Having said that I see France as really good value @ -5 to beat an at best average Scottish team.

Ireland -18 is not for me. There performances @ the world cup the resultaing fall in confidence and also the incresed pressure on both management & players leads me to believe that any kind of a win here is the utmost priority.

If you are inclined to go for Ireland I would wait untill very late in the day to see what the weather conditions are. A dry calm day would obviously be more beneficial.

wixfjord · 24-01-2008 6:39pm

Looked at this last night and thought france were good value. Thought about it a bit tho and doesnt seem so. France away are never at their best, they have a new coach and a lot of world cup players have been gotten rid of with some retiring. Theyve a few new players and scottish rugby isnt as weak as some think, glasgow have been going well in magners and heineken and edinburgh have caused some shocks. Any team with parks paterson lamont and the back row they have cant be bad so im leaving this alone. Wales +14 look good I think. Theyve got in gatland and edwards, henson seems to be in form as does martin williams, think they will either put on over on england or go very close, especially if sackey is injured.

Mellor · 29-01-2008 12:42pm

France have slipped to +4 on PP, but up on other sites
If the line moves there may be sub 100 book available

France - 4 @ 10/11, scotland 10/11
France - 6 @ evens (also scotland at evens)
France -7 @ 5/4, scotland @ 4-7

badbrian · 29-01-2008 6:16pm

I'll be having Italy + 18 with Boyles at evens. I think a few lacklustre performances will guarantee the end of Eddie, which I and most, and therefore I assume the key players want.

Pj! · 30-01-2008 2:45pm

Italy +18 at evens for me as well.

That handicap is just too big!

IrishMike · 30-01-2008 2:51pm

France -4 and italy +18 for me.
Cant see Ireland pulling a performance together.
Remember that is a vastly improving Italian team

Niall1965 · 30-01-2008 3:11pm

The Scots are a tempting price for the triple crown.

Mellor · 30-01-2008 9:51pm

I don't think Ireland will exceed 18 pts. but because the WC was poor, they will have something to prove. Add the fact that key italien players are missing, im staying away.

my only decision now is -4 or -7
On a €44 bet, the difference is €84 return or €99 return
I'm leaning to -4

Blisterman · 31-01-2008 11:59am

Ireland are 4-1 on paddy power to come second in the 6 nations this year. Might be worth a shot, and hope we beat either England or france.

jameshayes · 01-02-2008 10:27am

Here's the bet for tomorrow;

Italy win
England win
France win

15-1

IrishMike · 01-02-2008 11:28am

Lol italy win?
With an outhalf making his debut and a scrum half that has played 3 games in the 6 nations, very optimistic James

IrishMike · 01-02-2008 11:32am

My bet for tomorrow is
Italy +25 @ 1-3
England
France
Works out around 2.3-1

zAbbo · 01-02-2008 11:37am

IrishMike wrote: »

Lol italy win?
With an outhalf making his debut and a scrum half that has played 3 games in the 6 nations, very optimistic James

Masi has 10 caps, plays for Biarritz, and is probably the best playmaker they have. Granted he's in at 10, but I think he's a very capable player.

The smart money is on Wales to beat England.

jameshayes · 01-02-2008 11:51am

I'm heading along tomorrow so there is no chance of inplay bets which is a bummer but Yeah, I think italy can do us tomorrow... New coach, fresh players....

Mellor · 01-02-2008 12:20pm

"fresh players"

is that a nice way to say inexpierenced?
There are missing their best player imo

IrishMike · 01-02-2008 1:11pm

zAbbo wrote: »

Masi has 10 caps, plays for Biarritz, and is probably the best playmaker they have. Granted he's in at 10, but I think he's a very capable player.

The smart money is on Wales to beat England.

Masi has NO comptitive starts @ 10 for Italy.
That half back partnership have never played together.
There will be a lack of fluency its inevitable.
Ireland will win but not by a crazy amount - thats my prediction

jameshayes · 01-02-2008 1:53pm

I hope i'm wrong!

WH BONNEY · 01-02-2008 2:01pm

jameshayes wrote: »

I hope i'm wrong!

You are

jameshayes · 01-02-2008 2:07pm

It's practically the number 1 rule in betting - never bet against on a team who just changed their coach....

jameshayes · 01-02-2008 2:11pm

Italy are a powerhouse team - we cant play that way anymore - which was proved in the WC. I was at the Georgia game and seen it first hand - all they need to do is keep a close eye on ROG (who doesn't play well on the back foot) and find the holes in our team (trimble) and they'll be away with it... they play durty - we cant.

badbrian · 01-02-2008 4:36pm

I'm also tempted by HT FT Italy Ireland - 8/1 generally available.
Problem is I am going to the match hoping Ireland put in a dodgy display.

dsmythy · 01-02-2008 4:40pm

jameshayes wrote: »

It's practically the number 1 rule in betting - never bet against on a team who just changed their coach....

Except Newcastle.

Royale with Cheese · 01-02-2008 4:44pm

Can't see Wales beating England. It's basically a club team without their overseas players, who've been their best performers this season.

WH BONNEY · 01-02-2008 4:47pm

jameshayes wrote: »

It's practically the number 1 rule in betting - never bet against on a team who just changed their coach....

Off the top of my head, Newcastle United might show you why using that rule could prove futile.

I hear all your saying but seriously I think theres a better chance of Linfield playing their home games in Croker than there is of the Azzuri winning tomorrow.

lol i c dsmythy got there before me.

jameshayes · 01-02-2008 8:02pm

dsmythy wrote: »

Except Newcastle.

Newcastle are on the list with liverpool... we all got that one wrong!

Chucky the tree · 01-02-2008 8:26pm

Italy +8 at half-time, Scotland/france fpr ht/ft @ 7's

dsmythy · 01-02-2008 9:21pm

Italy with 8 at half time? That's a stonking good bet! I'm getting a little bit on.

myflipflops · 01-02-2008 10:37pm

jameshayes wrote: »

Italy are a powerhouse team - we cant play that way anymore - which was proved in the WC. I was at the Georgia game and seen it first hand - all they need to do is keep a close eye on ROG (who doesn't play well on the back foot) and find the holes in our team (trimble) and they'll be away with it... they play durty - we cant.

I hope you haven't backed Italy for much because i think your thinking is flawed. Picking out Trimble as a weak like defensively is fine (a centre playing on the wing) but who do Italy have to take advantage of his inexperience? Robertson and Canavosio arent exactly top notch operators. If anything, having someone like Trimble running at those guys is an advantage to Ireland.

You're correct in saying that O'Gara doesn't play well on the back foot but not many outhalves do. Also, i doubt we'll be on the back foot at all. Fair enough, the Italian front row look better than ours but elsewhere in the pack we definately look stronger. They'll miss Bortalami a lot and with Del Fava having been pretty poor for Ulster this year, i don't think our pack will fear them that much.

Italy look very vulnerable to me. The half back partnership is untested as a pairing and Masi has never played at 10 in a game of anyting like this intensity. Someone states that he plays for Biarritz but has anyone else seen Biarritz this year? They have been absolutely crap both in europe and the Top 14. Masi is a decent centre but a long way off being a test ouhalf (think Geordan Murphy starting outhalf for us). I know very little about the scrum half so i will reserve opinion but i don't fancy his chances.

Personally, i think this game is best watched. A lot of questions have been asked of Ireland since the World Cup and i want to see them play before i make any decision on this 6 Nations. I believe that the major physical training camps they underwent leading up to the World Cup should now come into play. The players are in the best basic physical shape of their lives and now they have games under their belt which they didn;t have in France. The Italy game will tell us plenty about them. My only bet on the 6 nations currently is O'Gara for top Irish tryscorer each way at 40/1 with Boyles.

Aplogies for the long, ranting nature of this post.

The 6 Nations - Potenial Edge

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