Kenny more popular than Ahern

ballooba

Despite dropping a percentage point in his approval rating Enda Kenny has moved ahead of Bertie Ahern who dropped three percentage points. I believe this is the first time a Fine Gael leader has had a higher approval rating than Ahern.

Also of note is that respondents were divided on whether Ahern should resign with 44 percent saying he should and 46 percent saying he shouldn't. Cowen has a much higher approval rating than Ahern, albeit as Minister for Finance rather than leader.

Personally I would find Cowen a lot more palatable as Taoiseach than Ahern. He has played a good game in sitting on the fence with regard to the Taoiseach's financial affairs but I think he will have to declare his hand sooner rather than later.

Poll results at: www.ireland.com

is_that_so

It was also noticeable that that most familiar of FF ministers John Gormley was also on hand to lend support. It does give FG some comfort but I am not sure what else it does apart from give them a bit more license to plug away on the "appropriateness" of what Bertie was doing.

I'd suggest that the loss for Labour has been more due to their preoccupation with themselves . Excluding Eamon Gilmore's attacks of late they have been fairly anonymous since they elected him.

It would have been interesting to see what effects, if any, the Hain resignation might have had on our perception of Bertie.

oscarBravo

Watching this on the news last night, a comment struck me: "when the figures are adjusted to account for the overstatement of support for Fianna Fáil that always features in these polls..." (or words to that effect - I don't remember precisely). Equally, the ireland.com report says "The adjusted figures for party support..."

What are they adjusting, and why? Anyone know?

LostinBlanch

I think it's because historically the polls have always overstated FF support. SO they had to use some kind of algorithm to discount this. They used it for the last election and it was more accurate.

oscarBravo

I guess the question then becomes: why do opinion polls overstate FF support?

ballooba

oscarBravo wrote: »

I guess the question then becomes: why do opinion polls overstate FF support?

Have you a hypotheses to profer?

oscarBravo

Nope, genuinely puzzled.

flogen

oscarBravo wrote: »

I guess the question then becomes: why do opinion polls overstate FF support?

If I'm not mistaken the given reason is that Fine Gael supporters are on average more likely to vote than Fianna Fáil supporters.

So where support may be 60:40 in favour of FF, for example, only 75% of FF's supporters actually get out and register that at the polls, where on the other hand 90% of FG's do so.

(all of those figures are pulled freshly from the air and just used as an example).

So in order to make the poll as indicative of the actual electoral result they re-work figures to factor this trend in.

moe_sizlak

is_that_so wrote: »

It was also noticeable that that most familiar of FF ministers John Gormley was also on hand to lend support. It does give FG some comfort but I am not sure what else it does apart from give them a bit more license to plug away on the "appropriateness" of what Bertie was doing.

I'd suggest that the loss for Labour has been more due to their preoccupation with themselves . Excluding Eamon Gilmore's attacks of late they have been fairly anonymous since they elected him.

It would have been interesting to see what effects, if any, the Hain resignation might have had on our perception of Bertie.

what possible effect could hain,s resignation have

this is ireland and politicians dont resign here unless someone accidently discovers a body in the trunk of there car

irish people by and large dont mind a bit of corruption and by and large like there politicians a little bit dirty
were more like the italians in that way
apparently a politician in sweeden a few yrs back had to resign because it became public that he was paying his house keeper in cash

murphaph

moe_sizlak wrote: »

what possible effect could hain,s resignation have

this is ireland and politicians dont resign here unless someone accidently discovers a body in the trunk of there car

irish people by and large dont mind a bit of corruption and by and large like there politicians a little bit dirty
were more like the italians in that way
apparently a politician in sweeden a few yrs back had to resign because it became public that he was paying his house keeper in cash

Well personally I've had enough of the italian political life model and fancy a bit of nordic conservatism. Would you prefer the economy of Sweden or Italy?

The_Minister

oscarBravo wrote: »

I guess the question then becomes: why do opinion polls overstate FF support?

This didn't occur in the last election, but it was a consistant, identifiable trend in the previous ones. They should probably stop doing that, since it no longer applies.

Húrin

murphaph wrote: »

Well personally I've had enough of the italian political life model and fancy a bit of nordic conservatism. Would you prefer the economy of Sweden or Italy?

Italian poltics exist to make Irish polticis look good

Executive Steve

If Kenny is more popular than Ahern it says more about Ahern than it says about Kenny.

The_Minister

[cm]tyranny wrote: »

If Kenny is more popular than Ahern it says more about Ahern than it says about Kenny.

He's only more popular if you fiddle with the figures to match a trend that doesn't apply any more.

Nevyn

I would love to know if those who take part in such polls are infact registered to vote and if they did they bother in the last election ?

Those who don't bother to vote should not be allowed to whinge about who things went.

ballooba

The_Minister wrote: »

He's only more popular if you fiddle with the figures to match a trend that doesn't apply any more.

Sour grapes?

ateam

These polls measure satisfaction as far I know, not popularity. I still think that there is a minority in the country that doesn't even know who Enda Kenny is.

EamonnKeane

so what, leukaemia is more popular than bertie by this stage

The_Minister

ballooba wrote: »

Sour grapes?

No, fact.
The superior result for Kenny is only achieved by altering the figures based on a trend that was bucked in the last election. The unadulterated figures should therefore be used, which still put Ahern ahead.

guinnessdrinker

The_Minister wrote: »

No, fact.
The superior result for Kenny is only achieved by altering the figures based on a trend that was bucked in the last election. The unadulterated figures should therefore be used, which still put Ahern ahead.

I can't work it out. Can you give us the unadulterated figures? It would be interesting to compare them.

LostinBlanch

The_Minister wrote: »

The superior result for Kenny is only achieved by altering the figures based on a trend that was bucked in the last election.

The figures were more accurate last time round, because they came up with a mechanism to allow for previously overstated FF support

The_Minister wrote: »

The unadulterated figures should therefore be used, which still put Ahern ahead.

Thereby repeating the mistakes of previous polls which consistently overstated FF support. :rolleyes:

John_C

oscarBravo wrote: »

I guess the question then becomes: why do opinion polls overstate FF support?

I think the simple answer is to do with the people who don't know who they support. Most of them are deciding between opposition parties, particularly between FG and LAB, rather than between FF and an opposition party. The polling companies give a greater portion of the 'don't knows' to FG and LAB to allow for this.

The_Minister

LostinBlanch wrote: »

The figures were more accurate last time round, because they came up with a mechanism to allow for previously overstated FF support


Thereby repeating the mistakes of previous polls which consistently overstated FF support. :rolleyes:

They were more accurate -when the polls overestimated FF support.
This did not happen the last election, the polls underestimated FF support, so this ajustment should not be made.
Adjusting the figures like this does not make sense when the rationale for the adjustment is gone.