Edwards leaving the race helps Hillary bigtime...

Tommy T

It leaves her with a clear run of the White vote(90% of his voters were white) in the South and the hispanic/working class vote he had in the rest of the country.

Edwards pulling out now was obviously arranged with Hillary. They both know his vote will propotionately go to Hillary rather than Obama and at the same time John doesn't have to publicly endorse either candidate.

Teddy can cheerlead all he likes from the sidelines, its votes that count and Hillary's got them with some to spare...

mikemac

You say it's arranged with Hillary. Will Edwards get the VP slot as some sort of compensation?
That's if he even wants it

is_that_so

It will probably come down to what is on offer. He has said he'll be talking to both. His base would naturally favour Clinton anyway but with so little time he needs to a make that call now. The best political move might be just to sit back and not endorse either. Obama needs him far more than Clinton does. For Clinton he could be that balance to offset her polarising effect. And of course he's been all about change so he'd fit nicely into Obama's camp.

Tommy T

micmclo wrote: »

You say it's arranged with Hillary. Will Edwards get the VP slot as some sort of compensation?
That's if he even wants it

I'm not sure if he wants the VP position but i'm pretty sure he'll be offered it behind closed doors.

moe_sizlak

theres no guarentee his vote will now go to hillary , its not like with the republicans where a canditiate with a mainly white blue collar support base would avoid the black canditiate
blue collar white democrat voters would be a little more liberal to put it mildly

whatawaster

I think Obama will probably get the bulk of Edwards votes. A lot of Edwards support was from the anti-Hillary democrats, and there are a significant amount of them.
I think if Edwards does endorse anyone, it will be Barack.

purple'n'gold

Looks like the americans have a choice to make for their next president, a young black man or an old white man.

Manic Moran

Tommy T wrote: »

It leaves her with a clear run of the White vote(90% of his voters were white) in the South and the hispanic/working class vote he had in the rest of the country.

Edwards pulling out now was obviously arranged with Hillary. They both know his vote will propotionately go to Hillary rather than Obama and at the same time John doesn't have to publicly endorse either candidate.

Teddy can cheerlead all he likes from the sidelines, its votes that count and Hillary's got them with some to spare...

You're obviously reading articles I'm not. The radio this morning said the Edwards voters were going to lean Obama, the San Francisco Chronicle today has almost a 3:1 ratio of declared former Edwards supporters leaning Obama vice Hillary in California. CNN's senior political analyst on the website today is similarly saying that in California, this is to Obama's benefit. Hillary's still leading in CA, but the lead is shrinking. I doubt she's taking it as much of as a given as you are.

NTM

swiss

Manic Moran wrote: »

You're obviously reading articles I'm not. The radio this morning said the Edwards voters were going to lean Obama, the San Francisco Chronicle today has almost a 3:1 ratio of declared former Edwards supporters leaning Obama vice Hillary in California. CNN's senior political analyst on the website today is similarly saying that in California, this is to Obama's benefit. Hillary's still leading in CA, but the lead is shrinking. I doubt she's taking it as much of as a given as you are.

NTM

I haven't seen any of the above articles, but I did read a bbc news article with the following snippet:

But according to a recent poll, four in 10 Edwards supporters said Mrs Clinton was their second choice, while a quarter of voters said they would go for Mr Obama.

Both Clinton and Obama will spin this so that it will appear to benefit them. Policy wise I would guess that Edwards politics would be closer to that of Obama but it would be naive to say that race isn't a factor in this election and my suspicion is that more Edwards voters would favour Clinton than Obama as a second choice.

We should get a clearer idea after super Tuesday, but as it currently stands I think this could tip the balance in Clintons favour.

SteveS

Manic Moran wrote: »

You're obviously reading articles I'm not. The radio this morning said the Edwards voters were going to lean Obama, the San Francisco Chronicle today has almost a 3:1 ratio of declared former Edwards supporters leaning Obama vice Hillary in California. CNN's senior political analyst on the website today is similarly saying that in California, this is to Obama's benefit. Hillary's still leading in CA, but the lead is shrinking. I doubt she's taking it as much of as a given as you are.

NTM

I am hearing the same thing around here. Are you voting in the primary?

Manic Moran

SteveS wrote: »

I am hearing the same thing around here. Are you voting in the primary?

No. Richardson dropped out before I requested a ballot. (Only vote-by-mail in my area). Republicans won't let me vote. Nobody else is enticing me. I'll just vote on the local ballots and propositions.

NTM

kenco

Sad, in many respects he was the only candidate with any real policies. I have always thought he was a potential great president but with little or no chance of getting the nomination.

Interestingly enough he is the one demo in the polls who has consistently beaten all the potential rep candidates. I have a feeling the dems might look back at the end of this process and think 'what if'?

Cant see him being VP but I could see him in a senior cabinet position.

His delegates will break down around 2:1 to Obama.

banquo

Last week the polling in california was IIR 46% to Clinton, 30% to Obama and 11% to Edwards. [all sources are rasmussenreports.com]

Today:
43% Clinton
40% Obama


...with 17% up for grabs, and in primaries gone by [not saying that california will follow suit] undecideds tend to go with obama at the last minute, so it could be Obama's!

At the same time, betfair.com are offering 7/4 to hillary to win california and 2/1 to obama.

So it's anyone's game.

[/speculation]

ghostdancer

Edwards voters in SC very slightly favoured Clinton, but in NH, very strongly favoured Obama.



banquo, 2 things there:

i agree with you there, but while the number of the popular vote indicates a "win", it's really down to the delegates awarded to each candidate. Clinton allegedly "won" Nevada, but Obama got more delegates, and at the end of the day, as Clinton's own campaign manager said, it's delegate numbers that matter. so while Clinton may win in terms of the popular vote, and delegates in CA, i think that a strong overall delegate count is what will matter to Obama, similarly, the same happening in NY, where i believe he has a pretty strong lead in the city, while Clinton is stronger throughout the rest of the state.

the other thing, is that i've heard that something like 30% of ballots are mail-in, which in theory, will give Clinton a boost as these would have been sent before last minute or before the current shift towards Obama has taken place. i'm not totally sure if that's correct, but i believe this is the case anyway....

Manic Moran

ghostdancer wrote: »

the other thing, is that i've heard that something like 30% of ballots are mail-in, which in theory, will give Clinton a boost as these would have been sent before last minute or before the current shift towards Obama has taken place. i'm not totally sure if that's correct, but i believe this is the case anyway....

A large number were indeed sent in early, but it seems that the majority of these early ones were for the obvious front-runners, not people likely to drop out part-way-through. A lot of people have been holding on to their ballots: I always hand-deliver my mail-in ballot to a polling station.

NTM

banquo

ghostdancer,

your point about the mail ballots was good one, I hadn't considered that...

also, you're right that delegates are what count, though something can be said for hte momentum going into the next contest that comes with a win.

Does anyone else think [from the debate on right now] that these 2 have made a deal behind the scenes?

Tommy T

Of course the race in tightening in CA but in places like NY and NJ Hillary's lead has grown since Edwards departure...

banquo

Yeah, obama hasn't a hope there. But he's leading now in Georgia...

Looking forward to the polling after last night. I'd say Hillary swung a lot of undecideds.