It's not Hillary's to lose...

Tommy T

ghostdancer wrote: »

The DNC offered a new primary/caucus to the Florida Democratic Party but they told the DNC to f- off, as it would have to be paid for from their own pocket (several million) and the DNC said they wouldn't pay for it.

allowing Florida to seat delegates completely undermines the authority of the DNC. sure if they let Florida get away with it, then what stops states in 2012 moving theirs up past the dates set by the DNC.

the only way those delegates are getting to do anything is if Clinton pulls comfortably ahead in pledged delegates by the time the convention comes around.

if push comes to shove, i'm pretty sure Dean will take possibly pissing off some Florida delegates over possibly pissing off several million Obama voters.

there would be war within the party if they were allowed to vote, if their vote actually meant anything. they won't be.

Tommy, are you still living on that cloud, surely Tuesday knocked you back down to earth

Everytime I see Hillary she raises me up so I can stand on mountains...;)

Seriously though FL is vital for the Dem in the Presidential election. The Caucus idea sounds like a fair compromise no matter if Hillary of Obama wins it.

Because at the end of the day I want a Dem back in the Oval Office. If the DNC were so naive as to ignore 1.5 milion Dems in FL , hence handing the election to McCain, then they don't deserve to be in power..

whatawaster

Tommy T wrote: »

Everytime I see Hillary she raises me up so I can stand on mountains...;)

Seriously though FL is vital for the Dem in the Presidential election. The Caucus idea sounds like a fair compromise no matter if Hillary of Obama wins it.

Because at the end of the day I want a Dem back in the Oval Office. If the DNC were so naive as to ignore 1.5 milion Dems in FL , hence handing the election to McCain, then they don't deserve to be in power..

I agree, a caucus would be fair.

Manic Moran

Tommy T wrote: »

Because at the end of the day I want a Dem back in the Oval Office. If the DNC were so naive as to ignore 1.5 milion Dems in FL , hence handing the election to McCain, then they don't deserve to be in power..

You are arguing that a lot of Floridians will be so pissed off at the DNC that they would not vote for the Democratic candidate, whoever it is, in the General. That seems about as likely as die-hard Conservatives not voting for John McCain because they're pissed off that their candidate isn't conservative enough. I just don't see that happening.

The problem with holding a second caucus is that it sets an extremely poor precedent for other States in future.
"Ah, sure, we'll just hold our election stupidly early. Even if the DNC says they'll bar us, no matter, just look what they let Florida and Michigan do last time"

NTM

Tommy T

There is a precedent already.. Delaware 1996... Damn straight many Dems in FL would be pissed about not having their voices heard. FL is a borderline State anyway and such bad vibes would all but ensure a Rep victory in the State..

Lirange

A Saturday sweep of the three states for Obama and the delegate count is now essentially even.

According to polls Obama currently fares better than Clinton vs. McCain in a General Election scenario

PixelTrawler

Is Maine a winner takes all state for the Democrats

So far it seems Obama is on course to win Maine also - that'll bring things awful close!

ghostdancer

no, i think all the democratic primaries are proportional.

the major media outlets have now called Maine for Obama. 5/5 this weekend for him.

Lirange

Three more primaries on Tuesday. Obama currently ahead in polls for each.

Hilary has just sacked her campaign manager.

Jack Sheehan

Obama is the projected winner (with 99%, 98% and 92% respectively of the votes in) of Virginia, DC and Maryland. He's now ahead of Hillary in terms of Delegate counts, even with Super Delegates included. Thats nine states in a row. Surely you still cant claim she has an easy victory on her hands?

banquo

On to Ohio and Texas next. Looks like obama will lose texas, but polling in ohio shows him 39% hillary's 56, thich is not impossible in the next 3 weeks.

Also, democratic debate on CNN thurs 21st feb.

Lirange

Expect the poll difference to narrow in those states in the next week, particularly in Ohio. The primaries there are not until March 4th.

Meanwhile, next Tuesday are Wisconsin and Hawaii, two states that Obama should win handily to extend his winning streak.

ghostdancer

wisconsin should be tight, of the 3 polls taken in the last 10 days, Clinton was up 9 points in the oldest, with Obama up 4 points and 11 points in the most recent, so it could be close enough in the end...

clinton needs to win all the remaining states by something like 20% to tie in pledged delegates, which basically isn't going to happen.

the rest of the Clinton campaign is basically damage limitation, and to try drag it out to the convention, then entice the undecided superdelegates to go with her.

Lirange

Clinton was also up in Virginia a month ago.

He has the endorsement of Wisconsin's Governor and just about all the prominent Democrats in the state. Historically, if BOTH neighboring Iowa and Minnesota go with one candidate Wisconsin follows suit in each instance ... whether in a general election or primary. Obama's home base is just over the state line to south. Most tellingly though it appears Clinton will not even contest the state.

Super Delegates can change their mind and some have already indicated they may switch pending the outcome of pledged delegates. Realistically, I doubt in the end the Super Delegates will want to be the decider.

ghostdancer

yeah, i'm trying to prepare myself for the worst though

ghostdancer

...so the Clinton campaign rented out a list of their donors to one of Bill's supporters:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/13/172218/598/440/456203

and apparently, any states that Clinton doesn't win are "insignificant":

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/13/662535.aspx

banquo

Ha!

whatawaster

Tommy T has gone very quiet these last few days . . .

ghostdancer

how on earth the Clinton campaign still employs Mark Penn is a mystery to me....

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8551.html

Two days later, after Obama’s eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: “Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election. If it were, every nominee would win because every nominee wins Democratic primaries.”

Manic Moran

He's quite correct though, at least on that quotation. The ability to win the one does not necessarily result in a viability to win the other.

NTM

ghostdancer

he didn't say one though.

and winning primaries is most definitely a sign of who can win the GE.

is_that_so

I think the point is that it is a lot easier to win your own backyard as you have a captive audience and are just competing for the minds of your own party.
Winning in the GE is a different matter. The following candidates won primaries and the nomination only to lose the GE, some of them pretty spectacularly.

Adlai Stevenson
Hubert Humphrey
George McGovern
Walter Mondale
Michael Dukakis
and of course
John Kerry

Whoever comes through on the Dems side the GOP knives will be out.

Manic Moran

Think about what a primary is. You've got a Democrat standing up in front of a bunch of Democrats claiming to be the best represenative of Democratic values. Which is fine if you're a Democrat, but doesn't necessarily mean it's going to appeal to a swing-voter.

NTM

Manic Moran

Wisconsin is a very backwoodsy state, lots of hunters. Primary is this week.

Apparently today Hillary revealed that she shot a duck once. Ergo, she is entirely in synch with hunters' needs and you should vote for her.
I seem to recall this backfired for Al Gore as well.

In the meantime, people are noticing that Obama's supporters seem not to be the most enduring. Either that, or he's a jynx.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwzVLP2NcqI

NTM

Mutant_Fruit

Chalk two more up to Obama. That's one long winning streak.

banquo

Roll on March 4th.

Debate tonight. Got all my goodies laid out.

ghostdancer

Obama also won the Democrats Abroad primary, who reported results today, with 66% to Clinton's 33%. 11 delegates at stake, 4 of which superdelegates.

he also won the meaningless Washington primary on Tues, delegates were assigned in the caucuses on Feb 9th, which he also won, with 52 delegates to Clinton's 26.


debate should be interesting tonight. Clinton really has to pull out all the stops if she hopes to salvage her campaign enough to be competitive. i expect her to be negative as hell, i doubt she'll sink to the pathetically desperate levels she's gone recently with the "he plagarised Deval Patrick/had a COMMUNIST friend when he was young" talking points her campaign have pushed over the last few days, but i'd imagine this will be the most heated debate so far. she has no other options at this stage....



another bit of Clinton news while i'm here...

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=697

The Federal Elections Commission (FEC) now has the January financial reports in from the candidates. This is how much they raised, with links to the summaries filed by each campaign:

Obama: Raised $36.1 million, spent $30.5 million.
Clinton: Raised $13.9 million, spent $28.5 million

In other words, Obama operated in January on a surplus budget, raising $5.6 million more than he spent, while Clinton operated in January on a deficit budget, spending $14.6 million more than she raised.

The Clinton figure does not include the $5 million dollar loan she made to her campaign, for which she reportedly charged interest and, contrary to some press reports earlier this month, has not been paid back.

On March 20, we will learn what each campaign raised and spent for the month of February.

banquo

Most polite debate ever, save possible the previous one. I loved it when the presenters were really trying to get them riled up.

'change you can xerox' ... Well I though it was a good line...

metrovelvet

Manic Moran wrote: »

Apparently today Hillary revealed that she shot a duck once. Ergo, she is entirely in synch with hunters' needs and you should vote for her.
I seem to recall this backfired for Al Gore as well.



NTM

Typical Hillary. She was a Pelstinian sympathiser until she ran for NY State Senate. Then out of the blue she has Jewish relatives.

Let Obama win. It's karmic retribution for the Clinton's pushing affirmative action. The irony is delicious.

banquo

Ha! Nicely put.