Model Output - Early February 2008

Danno

So the search for Winter 07/08 continues. Models are suggesting High pressure to build to the south (initially) then to the west of Ireland as we approach mid-February. Will another "Northerly" ensue? Will it be equally as dissapointing?

Your thoughts please!

Paddy.1

Yeah it does look increasingly likely that high pressure will be the order of the day towards next weekend: ECM at 196hrs:


Positioning needs to be fine tuned, but the possibilty of a frosty spell is on the cards, for now..:cool:

Danno

1048 is quite mad for any time of the year let alone Feb!

arctictree

Some nice HP showing up on GFS around the boundary of FI. ECM in agreement too. Starting about Sunday. GFS then breaks this down into a strong easterly....

A

nacho libre

we better not have a snow event the weekend i'm out of the country. knowing my luck that's exactly what will happen. we'll get an arctic airflow over ireland with 1- 2 days of snow in late February.

arctictree

Can't resist it....chart of the year:



Sorry....!

nacho libre

Gonzo will be happy if that comes off.

Paddy.1

Well after what seems to be a few very mild days looks, still looks reasonably ok for a possible frosty spell from the 10th of Feb or so. Positioning must of course be fined tuned still, but chart below is getting into "reliable territorary"
Latest ECM at 144hrs:


Hopefully will help to keep feb mean down a bit..:o

Snowbie

Maybe chilly frosty nights but by no means cold days.Air too much sourced from maritime regions so days will be mildish (7 or 8c for feb) Not great for below mean avg temps.

I'd say snowbie with a southerly bay of biscay flow like that ,if you have the sun out,you could even have a 12 or a 14c.

Snowbie

Yep thats true BB if holes appeared,but with that wind direction it has anticyclonic doom and gloom all over it too with stagnant temps.The popular stratus muck as we all like to call it.

nacho libre

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Well after what seems to be a few very mild days looks, still looks reasonably ok for a possible frosty spell from the 10th of Feb or so. Positioning must of course be fined tuned still, but chart below is getting into "reliable territorary"
Latest ECM at 144hrs:


Hopefully will help to keep feb mean down a bit..:o

if it swings around to the east it will.

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

if it swings around to the east it will.

Will this do??


Painfully far out at 192hrs, but maybe one to watch. (until it changes next run anyway:D)

mike65

Its not going to amount to even a hill of beans. Winter is over (what winter?) Temps look like hiting early teens and certainly double figures everyday for the next 2 weeks except for tomorrow.

Mike.

Gonzo

yeah we could hit 14/15C some days over next 2 weeks. I think this winter has well and truly kicked the bucket. And I dont want a colder than average March with 24 hour cold snaps. March is too late for decent snow that will hang around. From March I like to think that things are on the warming up as we head towards Summer.

Danno

Oh goodie - pessimism abound!

usually when everybody on these boards is pessimistic, the weather has a tendency to send in some cold...

Snowbie

Reverse psychology Danno,sometimes it works;)

Supercell

In that case I'm forecasting 16-17°C in Wicklow in the next two weeks..

Oh wait...

Trogdor

Longfield wrote: »

In that case I'm forecasting 16-17°C in Wicklow in the next two weeks..

Oh wait...

:(I'd say I could well hit 16C here on Thursday. I don't really mind whether we get any wintry weather anymore now though, I'm just looking forward to some nice warm Spring (or even summer:eek:) like days:).
Anyway, we'll probably get our nearly annual cold spell late Feb/Early March

Paddy.1

Still unnervingly far out at 192hrs, but latest ECM showing an increasingly possibility of a strong continental influence going into next week, with even the hint of some troughing over the South Irish Sea:


Hopeing there isn't a back down from this later, as a continental based east wind brings the most beautiful weather of all (at least here).

Paddy.1

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Still unnervingly far out at 192hrs, but latest ECM showing an increasingly possibility of a strong continental influence going into next week, with even the hint of some troughing over the South Irish Sea:


Hopeing there isn't a back down from this later, as a continental based east wind brings the most beautiful weather of all (at least here).

Follow the isobars on that though Paddy.
Theres more sand in that wind than snow (I suggest neither as the sand will have fallen over Rome en route)
The top end of that high would need to pivot south west (where the 1036 is written) for the source to be true Easterly.

The 850's and the surface air would be useless if that map verified.
Cold rain and 6c in my opinion.

Last early january,what eventually verified for 24hrs was a true surface Easterly.Prior to that people especially on the UK fora were getting all excited about the hp and a continental flow and ignored questions about the source of the air being Africa.

Dont get me too wrong though.
This is a step in the right direction as it's at least a hint that a high may form (or move into) in some sort of usefull area.
It may still do the business should it appear up there oriented correctly.
In that map it isn't.

Paddy.1

You may be right BB, but I still love an east wind that has travelled over the continent(whether mild or warm. The troughing suggested by ECM at this point in time suggests that a cooler influence is trying to get in to the NE. Either way, I don't mind. Will be nice to have some beautiful, hazy weather for a change...

Paddy.1

Latest ECMWF release keeping the possibility of a more continental airmass to come over Ireland. Chart for Next Tuesday morning:


And 24 hours later (144), high moves over or to the North of Ireland:


Though not from a very cool source. The middle of next week brings the possibility of at least some surface cooling which could still bring some cool nights, which should counteract the average day time temps. Could be an interesting week ahead temp wise.

ninebeanrows

Some faint glimmers of hope that perhaps February will not be a completely mild and disappointing affair.

Some tentative signs of Northern Blocking in 7 days time,

arctictree

Just saw this weeks forecast. Looks like we will be getting dry winds from the continent all week. Europe is cooling down so temps will be dropping as the week goes by. Are we too late for an easterly blast?

A

Gonzo

back in the 80s we had Easterly blasts which delivered till the end of February so its not too late yet. Anything which happened in March was always a 24 hour affair.

ninebeanrows

No the outlook had some potential for a short while but now its a horror show with the high forming to our north but being sunk south by the northerly flowing jetstream.

Sinking into Europe and blowing up warm southerlies.

If your looking for an early spring however, the charts do look good.

Winter 07/08 is as good as over it would seem, if you could call it winter at all.

Gonzo

I feel really lucky that for me anyway this winter was saved by those miracle 12 hours of easterlys back in early Jan which dumped loads of snow which gave me 10 hours of a winter wonderland. If it wasnt for that this winter would go down in history to being the worst winter in living memory. Of course things cud still change, we have about another 5 weeks where there is still the possability of more snow showers. Once mid March has passed I look forward to the prospect of summer heatwaves.
We thought how could it possibly be milder than last winter, well this winter has proven us wrong, could next winter be even milder again???

After the worst summer ever followed by a most dissapointing winter for most of us, this summer better bring some proper lengthy beer and garden weather:)

Snowbie

I agree mostly Gonzo.You be one of the luckier ones.Remember i had to travel to Naul just see the snow and that was the southern flank of the snow trains,it would have been deeper just a few more miles north of there. That was nearly on a par like 1991(snow depth) but very short lived while '91 was over a week long.

There is usually a sting in the tail in winter and probably this year be no exception.
To compare this year to last,i still think there be no comparison. It is alot drier and calmer in this part of the world this year,okay no snow here(measurable depth) but just the temperate winter Ireland mostly get. Not near as wild like 06/07.

On another note,In Febuary its all to do with airmass and not how strong the sun is,alright its stronger than January but does not have any significant heating if we have an East blast or polar blast.With a southerly it does have an affect on surface heating just like it would have if it where June as the wind contains more moisture(humidity) and heat from desert or tropical regions.March be the battle ground between real surface heating and airmass,tis why its called March of many weathers.

Potentially this could have been an interesting winter due to lower SST's( from a cool summer and EG:snow on the coast Jan 3rd) and with our arctic high never materialised but we are coming into polar low territory more so than any other winter month IF we get the right synoptics. Again a simple NW/Nly at the end of Feb 2001 with just a slight raise in SST's up north produced a PL and dumped a lot of snow in this country but another key ingredient was more stratospheric warming in 02/2001 than 02/2008 which can still change.The time is still there.

Paddy.1

Snowbie wrote: »

Again a simple NW/Nly at the end of Feb 2001 with just a slight raise in SST's up north produced a PL and dumped a lot of snow in this country but another key ingredient was more stratospheric warming in 02/2001 than 02/2008 which can still change.The time is still there.

I hope you are right Snowbie, because in the medium term it is not looking great for cold temperature. Whatever potential this week has is blown away by some really deep southerlys towards the end of next weekend according to models. Hope this is just synoptic possibility the models are playing with rather than the actual.

Paddy.1

Well ECM hellbent of bringing a north African flow over Ireland at the start of next week:


I expect we will see scenes like this towards the end of February around the hills and meadows of Ireland:



Winter my arse. :mad: