Any interest in a weather league?

Supercell

Seems that Paddy.1 has hit on a great idea with his February 2008 Temperature Competition tread.

So I was thinking what about a weather league for Ireland?, where boardsies can forecast the following months mean temperature and get points for closeness to met Eireanns official figures.

I was thinking of maybe a points system like this

Forecast accurate to :-

0.1 - 10 points
0.2 - 8 points
0.4 - 6 points
0.8 - 4 points
1.6 - 2 points
3.2 - 1 point

Bonus points :-

5 - bang on temp forecast
5 - Any synoptic station rain forecast accurate to 5mm
5 - Any synoptic station air frost days
50 - Any synoptic station with > 10 days snow lying

What ye reckon lads, any interest?

Personally I reckon I would be the best ever, no question...and I'm already looking forward to my name at the top of the league for all to see (unless some jammy so and so flukes a point or two)..:D

Top of the league in December will have the huge honour and glory of being names best boardsie weather forecaster ever! and six feet of snow will fall outside their house next Christmas morning, I guarantee it.*

Suggestions, yay, nay....?

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Until another competition starts and the snow on Xmas morning might not happen unless you live in Canada or somewhere that the mythical white stuff falls like Greece..

Snowbie

Yer on the friday night drinky buzz belting out those idea's again right:D

Ah be good craic, im gameball.:)

and who's keeping scores then?

Danno

Bring it on! - What does the winner get? (A pro vantage II?)

Trogdor

Yeh, good idea:).
We can leave out February though:o, I'm only 2.8C off atm:p

darkman2

Whats the point, id win every time:p

Supercell

Snowbie wrote: »

Ah be good craic, im gameball.:)

and who's keeping scores then?

Official results will be Met Eireanns of course.

I'll win this being Mr Weather , do you think you have a chance of proving me wrng?

Supercell

darkman2 wrote: »

Whats the point, id win every time:p

LOL!!..we shall see!!!

Snowbie

Longfield wrote: »

I'll win this being Mr Weather , do you think you have a chance of proving me wrng?

Look here mountain boy,you know altitude and alcohol confuses you quicker than at sealevel,it plays havok with the nasties in the mind. Tis all im saying.......:D

Slainte

Paddy.1

Sounds good. What's the story with the competition thread then, I was going to open one for March next week. Perhaps have a thread like that for each month where ongoing analysis can take place, while this one shows and keeps a record of end results with scoring?

kerry1960

yep count me in there mate.......erm , im a little worried bout 1st prize cause my snowpoles only 5ft high/long, could 2nd prize be something nearer say 2/3ft ......cough........:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Mothman

Longfield wrote: »

Official results will be Met Eireanns of course.

I think you need to clarify this and perhaps put in per Met Eireann website.

Official data may be different.

For example

Belmullet Aug 07
Website
rain 92.7mm
Temp 14.9C

Official data per Monthly Weather Bulletin (published about 3 months later)
Rain 88.9mm
Temp 15.0C

Differences may be because of different observation hours, 00-24z vs 09-09z and perhaps the way means are calculated.


sorry to throw this in the mix

Supercell

Snowbie wrote: »

Look here mountain boy,you know altitude and alcohol confuses you quicker than at sealevel,it plays havok with the nasties in the mind. Tis all im saying.......:D

Slainte

Listen up here, I resent the scurrilous accusation that I was drinking!!
Not a drop of alcoholic beverage passed my lips I'll have you know*

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Sounds good. What's the story with the competition thread then, I was going to open one for March next week. Perhaps have a thread like that for each month where ongoing analysis can take place, while this one shows and keeps a record of end results with scoring?

Thats pretty much the Idea I was having Paddy, should be a bit of fun having both running in tandem. I'm going to ask for forecasts for several figures in the last week of each month and then will tot up the results at the end of the following one.

kerry1960 wrote: »

yep count me in there mate.......erm , im a little worried bout 1st prize cause my snowpoles only 5ft high/long, could 2nd prize be something nearer say 2/3ft ......cough........:rolleyes::rolleyes:

I'll lend you some of my smaller 10 footers then

Mothman wrote: »

I think you need to clarify this and perhaps put in per Met Eireann website.

Official data may be different.

For example

Belmullet Aug 07
Website
rain 92.7mm
Temp 14.9C

Official data per Monthly Weather Bulletin (published about 3 months later)
Rain 88.9mm
Temp 15.0C

Differences may be because of different observation hours, 00-24z vs 09-09z and perhaps the way means are calculated.


sorry to throw this in the mix

Yep I'll use the data on the official website so there is visibility and no possibility of being accused of cheating!

Righteo so, seems like its a goer, I'll kick things off on Monday 25th, until then you all can continue to think you're good forecasters

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*On Thursday.

ch750536

Rather than a league, why not x questions, where each person involved poses one question which we all have to answer.

For example, my question could be

'What will the max be for valentia in June?'

as long as we are all sensible there should be 20 q's or so, which are easy enough to judge the winner, rather than always going back to large amounts of data for averages.

Other corkers: wettest station on Aug 23rd. First station to record -tive, first station to record 10hrs sun etc etc.

Supercell

Some interesting ideas there ch750536, I think I may throw in a few wildcard forecasts for bonus points like "Whats the max in Mullingar going to be on March 17th" etc

Paddy.1

All good ideas above. So will I not open March Competion thread so? as this may conflict with other predictions?

Supercell

Paddy.1 wrote: »

All good ideas above. So will I not open March Competion thread so? as this may conflict with other predictions?

Open away Paddy, I think the best thing is to have everyone make their forecasts on your tread and I'll just keep a seperate league thread using the figures on yours where I compile league tables and insult and pour scorn on those on low points whilst praising myself for sitting on the top of the league *ahem*

I'd suggest I PM you the monthly questions (I think just 5 predictions should be enough) tomorrow and you put them at the start of your thread?

How does that sound to you?

Paddy.1

Sound, But how about two seperate threads? Say one for rainfall, where various predictions and analysis can take place for the station and mean rainfall of each month, while the other thread concentrates on individual station temps as well as mean temp predictions and monitoring?
I think that way it would be less confusing at the end of each month for those who are doing the calculations for each event.

The max/min predictions along with the mean rain/temp forcast sound like a very good idea, opens the scope so to speak:)

Supercell

I've PM'd you Paddy, let me know what you reckon.