March 2008 Temperature Forecast/Analysis

Paddy.1

Going to open this one up a bit early to allow time for folk to decide how they think March 2008 will turn out temperature wise in our island nation. Starting this month this thread will be running along side the "League Thread", where forecasts will be monitored and scored. (Scoring system can be viewed HERE, where Longfield will keep a tab on things.

Anyway, from this month on, there will be 3 questions (forecasts) + 2 bonus forecasts for extra scores:
Here is graph of Overall Irish Mean (61-90) for March, along with a few of the mean totals for this month in random previous years to give an idea how March can vary from year to year:



As can be seen in graph, March 61-90 mean of the 13 synoptic stations is 6.3c. So how much do you think this coming March will deviate from this? You decide..

Anyway, here are the forecast questions:

A: March Overall Mean Temp.

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice.

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice.

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet?

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day?

Give them all a go, it will be a fun way to understand the unpredictable and volatile nature of our climate.

My own forecast as follows:

A: 6.1c. I think March may turn out cool and changable.:cool:
B: 14.9c at Claremorris station.
C: -2.4c at Casement Aerodrome
BQ
E: 11mm
F: 3.5 hrs.

Well thats it started off... Good luck to everyone!!

Forecasts and reconsiderations taken up to 1st March.

ch750536

Nice one Paddy, thanks.

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 7.2

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice. Shannon 17.3

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Shannon -0.5

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 0

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 1.2

nacho libre

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 6.2

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice. Shannon 16.8

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Birr -3.9

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 10mm

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 2.5

Snowbie

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 6.9C

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice. Dublin AP 17.1C

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Dublin AP -4.4

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 0mm

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 6Hrs

Weather BOFH

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 5.9C

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice.Casement 16C

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Casement -5.5

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 5mm

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 3Hrs

Supercell

The winning entry is below..

A: 6.9°C
B: 16.2° Dublin AP (questions B & C were reworded by Paddy a bit - It was supposed to be highest/lowest temp at any synoptic station during the month..)..but will go with the current interpretation this month
C: -3.1°C Casement
3mm
E: 4.2

nilhg

Might as well give it a go,

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 7.6C

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice. Birr 16.2C

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Kilkenny -3.5

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 6.5mm

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 3.5Hrs

Danno

Will answer these on Feb 29th @ 23.55hrs!

Paddy.1

Longfield wrote: »

questions B & C were reworded by Paddy a bit - It was supposed to be highest/lowest temp at any synoptic station during the month..)..but will go with the current interpretation this month

Sorry about that LF, misinterpretation on my part,:o I thought you meant the highest max/min at any station of choice rather than overall. But ah well.

PS, all who have forecast so far, feel free to change your mind up to 1st of march as patterns can change quickly.

kindredspirit

A). Overall mean. 7.7

. Highest temp. 17.00 Casement.

C). Lowest temp -1.5 Mullingar.

D). Belmullet rain. 17th 3. mm

E). Sun hrs 17th. Valentia 1.2 hrs.

Gonzo

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 7.4

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice. Dublin AP 18.2C

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Kilkenny -3.2C

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 0.0mm

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 3.4hrs

ch750536

Paddy.1 wrote: »

PS, all who have forecast so far, feel free to change your mind up to 1st of march as patterns can change quickly.

You are assuming charts, science & forecasting had roles in my guesses.

Paddy.1

Just two days remaining to have a guess. Will do up chart later for those who have forecast the Overall Mean so far.

Trogdor

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 6.5
B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice. Dublin AP 18.1C

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Birr -4.6

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 0mm

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 6.5hrs

Snowbie

I have just noticed that a few of us are going for 0mm of rain for our Belmullet bonus question. To the powers that be, are we using seperate answers or are several posters allowed the same result(guess) answer to any particular question.

Paddy.1

Snowbie wrote: »

I have just noticed that a few of us are going for 0mm of rain for our Belmullet bonus question. To the powers that be, are we using seperate answers or are several posters allowed the same result(guess) answer to any particular question.

Think it would be best if Longfield decided on that as he is charge of all that complicated stuff

Quick chart on entries for Overall Mean for March.


Heres to a cold, wet March!!

Mothman

Overall mean March temp for 12 stations (the usual 13 minus Claremorris) this decade.
2000 7.9C
01 5.9C
02 7.9C
03 8.1C
04 7.3C
05 8.2C
06 6.2C
07 7.2C

Most stations had warmest March in 1961, and no station has had their warmest March on record this decade.

and I'm not a power to be, but IMO you have to allow same answers for the likes of that question.

Snowbie

Right Longfield (power to be) whats your take on all this complicated stuff?

gurramok

After consulting the dolphins

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 7.1

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice. Dublin AP 18.2C

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Dublin AP -2.5C

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 0.8mm

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 0.4hrs

Here's to a miserable Paddy's day and a cool wet March with the odd spot of good weather thrown in for short bursts

Supercell

Snowbie wrote: »

Right Longfield (power to be) whats your take on all this complicated stuff?

Right, for these massively complicated issues at hand.

Tis a league, a win is a win, you get the answer bang on you get double points.

Normal rules apply, it is possible two people may share the top spot, but after a few months the weather visionaries like myself should be pulling away
Start to march already looking dodgy for my prediction..may have edit my post tomorrow!!

Its a leap year so ye all have until midnight tomorrow night to edit your predictions after that they are set.

Should be interesting.

Snowbie

Longfield wrote: »

it is possible two people may share the top spot,

But i dont want to share top spot with no one.;)

Paddy.1

Snowbie wrote: »

But i dont want to share top spot with no one.;)

Just as well, because that throne has my name written on it!!!

ps longfield, how are you judging max/mins. Are they absolute, or confined to stations that were chosen.

Snowbie

Paddy.1 wrote: »

ps longfield, how are you judging max/mins. Are they absolute, or confined to stations that were chosen.

The complication continues:D

I'll doubt you get a response out of him sometime soon as he is too busy editing all his answers.

FTW Here is a tip, March is going to be an entirely dry'ish month with below normal temps,except for Belmullet which will have an excess of 100mm of rain on paddy's day.I will edit my totals soon but the edit button is not working for some reason?????

Supercell

Jayus my head hurts and its not even Saturday morning yet!

Regarding maxes/mins, for this month I'm going with per station which will be a pain in the nutz to calculate individually, next month on will be absolutes.

I'm confidantly forcast much chopping and changing of forecasts tomorrow night especially as its a Friday and no doubt I'll be full of cheer.
Think I might award myself a few points extra for that accurate forecast

M.T. Cranium

The mean temp ... 7.3 (not so mean)

The highest temp ... 21.1 C at Dublin

The lowest temp ... -4.0 C at Birr (see why they named it that)

Mar 17 rainfall at Belmullet ... why not? ... I mean 5.5 mms

Mar 17 sunshine at Valentia ... 6.2 hours

DOCARCH

Mean Temp 6.9c

Highest Temp 18.7c at Casement

Lowest Temp -2.8c at Kilkenny

March 17th Rainfall at Belmullet 6.0mm

March 17th sunshine at Valentia 3.5 hours

Paddy.1

Cheers to everyone who participated and good luck to all.:)

Here is final forecast chart for March 2008:



Let the game begin!!!

gurramok

Hey Paddy, where am i in the chart?!

Paddy.1

gurramok wrote: »

Hey Paddy, where am i in the chart?!

Sorry man!! I can't believe I did that. Will do up new chart tomorrow, be assured of your place on it!!

6.8, not too late am I?

Danno

Sorry lads, was away with a family member in hospital over the weekend. Hope I can still enter. If so, then here goes my guesstimates...

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 6.4c

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice. Casement with 19.5c

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Kilkenny with -4.8c

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 11.2mm

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 2hrs