March 2008 Temperature Forecast/Analysis

Kippure

6.6

rc28

Sorry, only saw this now, don't include me if you couldn't be bothered but i'm going with 7.1c

Thanks for including me

I think many of us were too busy looking at the February page to even notice this one, well I was anyway

Danno

Cheers folks! Here's hoping for a 2-in-a-row!

Mothman

Rain, sunshine and daily temperature min/max graphs
Malin Head rain figure estimated
Data from Met Eireann or Ogimet

Paddy.1

March 08 mean up to midnight 2nd is 7.5c (rounded). Overall Irish Mean for March so far is 1.1c above normal.

squonk

Maybe I'm a bit late but here goes...

A: March Overall Mean Temp. 7.2

B: Highest March max temp in synoptic station of your choice. Dublin Airport: 13.5

C: Lowest March min temp in synoptic station of your choice. Dublin Airport: -2

Bonus Questions

What will be the rainfall total be on St Patrick's day at Belmullet? 1.8mm

E: What will be the sunshine total (Hrs) at Valentia on St. Patrick's Day? 2.8 hours

Paddy.1

No probs Squonk. Will put you up on Mean chart now. Good luck!

March 08 overall mean up to midnight 3rd is now 6.0c, which is -0.3c below normal so far.

Edit: Updated Forecast Graph:

Trogdor

Trend graph so far

Paddy.1

Graph of Monthly D.F.A for this year with Monthly data included for 2007 for comparison.



This is just to chart gathered temp data from Met Eireann to compare the current year's temperature trend the 61-90 average; also with the trend for 2007, the warmest year on record, according to some.

Some believe that the current La Nina phenomena is beginning to have an impact on global temps with a tend towards cooler conditions. Whether or not this is true, will be interesting I think to keep an eye on the chart above this year to see if there is any noticable trend developing.

One interesting thing to note, 2008 is proving to be just a tad cooler up this point (end of feb) than up to the same point last year. Will this trend continue?
Stay tuned for more....;)

Paddy.1

OIM up to midnight 4th has risen slightly from value on the 3rd. Mean stands at 6.1c, a rise of 0.1c. Overall Mean values still 0.2c below average, with Dublin, Birr and Clones showing the highest negative deviations, while Malin Head and Valentia safely in the positive.

Mothman

Overall mean 6.3C as of 5th. Today will raise it by perhaps 0.4C

Paddy.1

Updated graphs charting station breakdowns and averages so far this March.

Mean temperature values of each of the main Met Eireann synoptic stations:



Rainfall totals so far this March in respective stations with mean and current average totals included:



East is driest again so far this March. Malin Head wettest station so far with 30.6% of its average rainfall falling so far this month.

Figures courtasy of Met Eireann, and can be found here:
http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp

Trogdor

Updated trend

Supercell

6.9 here we come .

Paddy.1

Longfield wrote: »

6.9 here we come .

Not quite yet!! Mean remains unchanged today (up to midnight 7th) at 6.5c rounded, but within that value, a drop of 0.02c has occured from mean total of the 6th.

Only Claremorris reporting a 0.1c degree rise from previous day's value.

Will be interesing (I think) to see if the unsettled period coming up will have any bearing on the Overall Mean over the next 4 or 5 days or so.

Paddy.1

Overall Mean has risen to 6.6°C today. Unlikely that it will rise much over the next 2 or 3 days.

Overal Mean Rainfall is 21.5mm. 26% of normal so far, which at this stage in March, is bang on average.

Trogdor

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Overall Mean has risen to 6.6°C today. Unlikely that it will rise much over the next 2 or 3 days.

Yep, i've been knocked away from the closest after leading for 2 days.


Kippure is now dead on with 6.6C

Forecasted temps

nacho libre

i hope next weekends weather will bring it back down to 6.2. I'd like to be in the lead for at least one day:D

Paddy.1

Overall Mean up to midnight 9th March stands at 6.5°C rounded. Data missing from Shannon and Mullingar. Mean could be 6.4°C contingent on updated data from these stations.

Paddy.1

Breakdown of Met Eireann Temperature and Rainfall totals up to midnight 10th:



Overall Mean still slowly falling, now at 6.4c rounded, which is near average.

Rainfall distribution:



Mean rainfall so far this March stands at 39.5mm, which is 49.6% of normal of average. This figure is expected to rise further towards the end of the week with persistent rain forecast for the south in particular.

Mothman

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Mean rainfall so far this March stands at 39.5mm, which is 49.6% of normal of average.

Something slightly wrong with % calculation. 39.5mm is slightly more than half of 78mm, so % should be slightly more than 50%

Away from the nit picking , the graphs above have just been updated.

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

Something slightly wrong with % calculation. 39.5mm is slightly more than half of 78mm, so % should be slightly more than 50%

Away from the nit picking , the graphs above have just been updated.

Now that is nit picking MM:p Calculation is fine, what is not shown is decimals beyond .00. You see, this is where I have the problem with rounding figures, conflicts will show in totals as compared to the actual figures.

But ah well, the above chart is a good indicator of rainfall %'s and totals.

Mothman

Paddy.1 wrote: »

But ah well, the above chart is a good indicator of rainfall %'s and totals.

This is true, I was a bit remiss in not balancing my message with the positives

Paddy.1

Sound MM, However your original point is valid. I will adjust chart tonight to reflect real values and percentages, which means I will have to use flat values; these I will show along with original standard rounding values.

Paddy.1

Mean up to midnight 11th remains at 6.4c, which is near average.

Info can be found here:

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=53

Danno

6.4c - Hope it stays that way. Unlikely though with the increase in Sun strength... But at least I have gotten it right for 2 days this month so far...

Paddy.1

Danno wrote: »

6.4c - Hope it stays that way.

Has done:) Mean remains at 6.4c today. Mean rainfall up to midnight last stands at 48.1 mm, which is 61.6% of the 61-90 March mean up to this point.

Wiclow Weather Trend Graph:

Trogdor

Overal Irish Mean I have at 6.5C for today, although I think using Paddy's rounding it may be 6.4C still

Paddy.1

trogdor wrote: »

Overal Irish Mean I have at 6.5C for today.[/IMG]

Overall Mean rainfall stands at 51.6mm up to midnight 13th, which is 66.2% of normal. Malin Head has highest total so far in absolute and mean terms, with 99.3% (86.0mm) of its expected rain falling so far this month.