Model runs-late february to end of march

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

If only it were the chart for the 7th of february and this was the 5th of february.

Tiz a pity you have to go so deep into FI for a beauty though and an even bigger pity that it's march.

That would deliver to the higher ground possibly with wintry showers into the East.

That deep in FI though is about as reliable as using a table spoon to dig the foundation of a house and using sand instead of cement...


Meanwhile in the sub 96 hr period - Enjoy the mild

Snowbie

Ok BB, i have to break my silence here. As you started this thread, i have to admit it is becoming interesting in the models recently and the trend continues with a very noticeable change in the making. A change to a possible northern or NE block aswell as the PFJ south of us.

Still FI territory but consistent but March is no surprise to bring conditions far colder than any winter month. As i said before its all to do with airmass especially in March.Winter just might have that sting in the tail and significant at that.

kerry1960

the charts for march starting to look interesting

kerry1960

and before anyone posts ' its too late for frost/snow in march/april ' look at this pic of a pic , the occasion of my sons 9th birthday , intense snowshower which left a deposit of app 1/4inch on the ground at app noon on 05/05/97 .

Paddy.1

ECM chopping and changing lately in long term but there seems to they seem to be getting on to a cautious trend about some sort of easterly trying to become established during first week in march:


Of course they may back down, but this is the second run they have had with pressure higher to the north than to the south.

Edit: in shorter term, with unstable air forecast for the beginning of next week, could be a thunder potential to look out for.

Trogdor

Interesting ensembles lately with a split around the 5th will the Northerly continue...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Paddy.1

According to latest gfs, it may:


A wrap around occlusion with that system would favour the east, while west stays with showers.

Certainly could be interesting. But no doubt will be modified in later runs.

arctictree

Well, according to the GFS 12z, it looks like we are going to get a Northerly blast from 5th March. Its just about in FI (next Wed) so we'll see how it plays out. I think from now on, any chance of snow would need a strong north/north easterly. E or SE just might not do it esp as we head into the middle of March.

A

Paddy.1

ECM 12z a huge disapointment. I didn't put up a chart because there is no good ones to choose from. My advice, don't look, might be a bit better tomorrow.

I hope.

Supercell

A northerly or NW would probably deliver some precip to the east at this time of year due to the power of the sun driving decent convection. Will need prolonged stuff under cloudy skies for any settling. Might be some on the mountains though.

Trogdor

arctictree wrote: »

Well, according to the GFS 12z, it looks like we are going to get a Northerly blast from 5th March. Its just about in FI (next Wed) so we'll see how it plays out. I think from now on, any chance of snow would need a strong north/north easterly. E or SE just might not do it esp as we head into the middle of March.

A

The Northerly actually begins(going by the charts, obviously hasn't happened yet) early on Monday with a risk of snow countrywide.
The split from about half way through the 4th is still there on the 18z ensembles. Will it get warmer or colder ...
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=113&ext=1&y=34&run=18

Snowbie

Yet another March looks set to begin cold but snowy?
As Longfield said above, the showers will pack a bit more punch with the added convection. Also a chnce of a GL block could be possible but i wouldnt hold my breath on that just yet.

Paddy.1

Snowbie wrote: »

Also a chnce of a GL block could be possible but i wouldnt hold my breath on that just yet.

Just as well you didn't. Latest ECM next Tuesday at 12hrs:



Back to the same old nothingness.

nacho libre

I wonder what track that high will take. Hopefully, it'll move along quickly and not move up and become stationary over Ireland.

Paddy.1

Certainly some interesting weather possible for early next week with models showing some sort of vigourous low developing. GFS take on it:

Has the low passing to the north, while ECMWF (the more reliable model), has it passing explosively along the south coast:


Personally I hope ECMWF are right, it would bring better chance of some gale driven sleet or snow for the east and south especially, GFS's outlook would just be another (windy) hit 'n' miss event again.

nacho libre

i hope it goes south too as it could pull down a cold north westerly airflow behind it

ninebeanrows

Looks like a prolonged run of below average temperatures is in the offing over the coming 2 weeks with very cold weather at times.

darkman2

Yeah it looks interesting but its a long way out. I dont think an avergae of -5 at 850hpa level in a North Easterly is going to cut it for snow in the East anyhow. We would need one of the more extreme ensemble members to occur but it does look wintry.

Paddy.1

A most interesting ECMWF 12z run for next sunday: (144hrs)



Certainly more interesting weatherwise for the east rather than the west, but of interest to me is the lack of any mild spell throughout the 12z run.

It is looking like some sort of medium term pattern change is beginning to emerge after our "great storm". It is possible that such low atmospheric pressure we all experienced over the last 24hrs has a longer term impact, in that it has offset or "jarred" the long-term pattern which was our curse over the last few months.

Hope so anyway..

The chilly theme continues in GFS by the way especially in FI.
This would be a lovely january or february chart..

nacho libre

yes, it would:(

Paddy.1

ECMWF keeps up a cool theme next week, if downgraded a touch. Looks like no real spring weather on the way just yet:



Another one day wonder...?

DOCARCH

White Easter anybody???

Snowbie

DOCARCH wrote: »

White Easter anybody???

Still Fi but with good model agreement over the last week, i'm surprised it's still hinting at such.

Over the next week is to be cold, average or below temps, so who knows the theme may just continue up to and including Easter.

darkman2

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Its on the way.......;)

mike65

C'mon on. March is the cruelest month, or is that April?

Mike.

maquiladora

12Z GFS is incredible...

Snow pretty much everywhere from Saturday 22nd to Thursday 27th. :pac:

Such a pity its deep in FI, imagine if it actually happened though...

darkman2

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF


UKM on board....

Supercell

Sleety crapola, no lying snow at ground level - 300metres + is all I see there lads.

Longfield

Longfield wrote: »

Sleety crapola, no lying snow at ground level - 300metres + is all I see there lads.

Agreed.
darkman 2 - you're ever the optimist but even you should know deep down the charts you posted would give sleety crapola.
I'd hold on the weather warnings if you're issuing them to RTÉ etc for a while..

darkman2

lol I never said those charts were going to bring snow to low levels. Maybe some wintry showers. The reason I posted them is becuase of what happens once the trigger low moves SE and pressure builds into GL. Gonna be a special Easter this year;)

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=58260

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=58269