Model runs-late february to end of march

15-03-2008 1:06am

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darkman2 with all due respect.

Gonzo · 15-03-2008 2:35am

unlikely for much snow then it will be extremely marginal, its just gettin too late now, it'll be nearly April then.

Paddy.1 · 15-03-2008 4:53pm

Friday next looks a most interesting day according to both ECM and GFS:

GFS:

Could be the North and East that benefits most out of this, whatever it may bring; the west and south will depend on convective forcings. Either way, not looking overly spring like in medium term.

CM21 · 15-03-2008 8:19pm

Certainly looks good for snow from friday on.

Supercell · 15-03-2008 8:26pm

If only it was Dec, Jan or Feb, too late I fear for any real excitement.
I'm on hols next week, any snow up by Sally Gap will be snapped!

Gonzo · 15-03-2008 9:02pm

its kinda annoying that we mostly seem to get the perfect snow type charts mid to late march every year when its just about too late, yet these charts never seem to happen in January/February when they would work wonders.

ninebeanrows · 15-03-2008 9:34pm

Well well well it looks like March could deliver again?

And continue to illustrate that our seasons are definately changing.

But don't think that just because it's going to be mid-late March that it cannot snow.

Obviously snow will melt during the day and melt quite fast but we've been living with these type of snowfalls for a long time now because we have had crap synoptics.

These synoptics look great and a Northerly in March can actually bring really cold weather, better than a High over Scandy, the synoptics forecast would bring the coldest weather there could be at this stage of the year.

Infact it could even be more exciting with that added kick of convection into the cold spell.

Some places could see lots of snow

Long way off yet, even though there is almost total agreement on it.

Expected to last a long time too!

darkman2 · 15-03-2008 10:03pm

It looks atm like we can expect fronts and active troughs to move south. We will need these at night in particular because shower activity will be restricted then to windward coasts. All models going for a potent, long, sharp cold snap.

nacho libre · 16-03-2008 12:22am

Surely it's too good to be true? I refuse to get my hopes up until i see the snow falling outside.

kerry1960 · 16-03-2008 1:31am

nacho libre wrote: »

Surely it's too good to be true? I refuse to get my hopes up until i see the snow falling outside.

once again , completely and totally off topic as usual (sorry snowbie) , but i had been looking forward to a trip to castlebar for the kerry/mayo match , unfortunately my football trip is off , so i'd settle for the following :

1 mayo to have the snow.

2 kerry to win the march .

slightly back on topic but i can't see the SW getting much from this upcoming cold spell , a few frosty nights , and a few nice bright chilly days will suit me fine ,

nacho libre · 16-03-2008 1:54am

kerry1960 wrote: »

once again , completely and totally off topic as usual (sorry snowbie) , but i had been looking forward to a trip to castlebar for the kerry/mayo match , unfortunately my football trip is off , so i'd settle for the following :

1 mayo to have the snow.

2 kerry to win the march .

slightly back on topic but i can't see the SW getting much from this upcoming cold spell , a few frosty nights , and a few nice bright chilly days will suit me fine ,

it's more likely we'd have the snow than beat Kerry:(

kerry1960 · 16-03-2008 2:29am

nacho libre wrote: »

it's more likely we'd have the snow than beat Kerry:(

some time next week , headlines ,

all roads in kerry blocked with snow ,

mayo footballers hammer the kingdom ,

would you swop ?:)

nacho libre · 16-03-2008 3:27am

kerry1960 wrote: »

some time next week , headlines ,

all roads in kerry blocked with snow ,

mayo footballers hammer the kingdom ,

would you swop ?:)

Of course!! Snow is far more important to me than a Gaelic match - especially a league game.;)

Paddy.1 · 16-03-2008 9:02am

nacho libre wrote: »

Snow is far more important to me than a Gaelic match

I agree;)

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008031600!!chart.gif

Great barbecue weather ahead if ECM to be believed, if thou art into that kind of thing.

Trogdor · 16-03-2008 11:40am

Interesting feature on the 06z GFS. Low forms off the North coast and comes down and runs across the Irish sea. Pointless to look at details that far ahead but that would give a very interesting night for the East coast, and for a lot of the country for that matter, if it came off!
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1684.png
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn16817.png
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1681.png

mike65 · 16-03-2008 12:03pm

I can't belive you saddos want snow during Easter! :pac:

For petes sake I'm waiting for the warm sun.

Mike.

maquiladora · 16-03-2008 12:56pm

Gonzo · 16-03-2008 1:03pm

mike65 wrote: »

I can't belive you saddos want snow during Easter! :pac:

For petes sake I'm waiting for the warm sun.

Mike.

I feel exactly the same way, Its mid to late March and T-Shirt weather should just be around the corner. There is something wrong about cold snaps in late March/early April just as there is something wrong about warm sunny days in January/February. I love snow but not when its this late heading towards summer. Its around now I expect the start of the buildup to hopefully a much better summer than we had last year.

rc28 · 16-03-2008 3:31pm

I agree, its almost April and snow at this time of year is useless- it melts easily in the strong sunshine and cold weather will stunt the growth of plants. I just want warm sunny days now- a repeat of last years April would be excellent.

darkman2 · 16-03-2008 3:42pm

Great 6z run this morning. It does look like the North and West will bare the brunt of the snow as is usual in a Northerly but given the time of year everywhere is at risk from Friday on. Get a disturbance in the flow the winds could shift Northeasterly at times and there is also a good chance of active troughs moving south which would bring the prospect of more prolonged sleet and snow at times.

ninebeanrows · 16-03-2008 5:42pm

Quite chill:D:D

darkman2 · 16-03-2008 8:26pm

Expect alot of snow Saturday night if this comes off........note the trough that has moved through

ECM1-168.GIF?16-0

nacho libre · 17-03-2008 1:12am

Nice chart. If that chart proves to be correct i hope it's cold enough on the ground for the snow to stick. A few of hours of lying snow Saturday night would be grand. I don't care if it's gone by midday on Sunday.

Snowbie · 17-03-2008 2:02am

Very quite in here after the 18z
FI 18z indicates a downgrade on the prospects for a significant cold shot over Easter.
24hr snap(toppler) followed by a pressure rise from the west with maritime air in the mix. -12 850s over the east on the 12z to -6c 850's on this run(18z) for same peroid.

Again always the danger of judging FI charts for a significant cold shot this far out.
One run but could swing back?
Interesting model watching over the next runs and see where it goes from there.

17-03-2008 9:46am

Snowbie wrote: »

Very quite in here after the 18z
FI 18z indicates a downgrade on the prospects for a significant cold shot over Easter.
24hr snap(toppler) followed by a pressure rise from the west with maritime air in the mix. -12 850s over the east on the 12z to -6c 850's on this run(18z) for same peroid.

Again always the danger of judging FI charts for a significant cold shot this far out.
One run but could swing back?
Interesting model watching over the next runs and see where it goes from there.

Yeah that was an injection of reality wasn't it.
I guess you can't blame people this time for being optimistic as there is so much ensemble agreement.
If we had that in january it would be exciting.

Right about now, it's not.

Incidently,this mornings GFS has changed things back again.
TBH I wish it hadn't-because if its going to get cold,I'd wish it got cold and snowed significantly rather than just got cold and sleety wet.

I'd rather a heatwave over that at this time of the year anytime.
Both have similar probabilities in general at this time of the year I think ie slim.

Snowbie · 17-03-2008 12:34pm

Yup, i concur that the ensemble agreement is consistent for awhile now.
6z has swung back in favour of a lengthy snap covering the Easter weekend again with added troughs moving down from the north.

Although i would not call for this untill much closer the time.
6z does indicate cold to very cold conditions compared to yesterdays 18z.
Also we are getting close to the reliable time frame.

17-03-2008 2:09pm

Madonna wasn't it?
Paraphrasing..

We've seen it all before,we've seen it all before , we've seen it all before...

Better synoptics earlier in winters gone by have been raved about on this forum and no snow fall (other than local flukes)of any significance yet in the nearly 5 years people have been posting about them.

I don't share darkman2's enthusiasm this time,I'd have thought experience would be telling this time and the huge number of times similar or better synoptics have delivered nothing but a damp sleety squib would be showing at this stage but they are not.
Realism needs to bite.
This is march almost april which is worse.
Another thing thats missing by the way is an unmodified cold surface air feed in any of the runs.
It's a thing thats you do definitely need.Experience tells us this in the last 5 years of posting about -5 to -10 850 temps.
Without the un modified/barely modified cold surface feed ESPECIALLY at this time of the year,I'm not getting excited.

Doubtless I'll hear from they who should have learned a bit more by now that all is rosy and we are soon to be snowed in.

Nonsense.

I'll save my own analysis of the upcoming cool spell for later in the week.

ch750536 · 17-03-2008 2:18pm

Don't sugar coat you're thoughts, tell us exactly how you feel.;)

The only thing going against your thoughts is the change in the weather. Sooner or later we will have snow, then I will be right to get excited about nothing.

Snowbie · 17-03-2008 10:54pm

The 18z is rolling out atm and comparing this to the 12z which transfered the moreof potential to the eastern UK, we shall see.
12z had a reload of a northerly through the easter weekend, what will the 18z bring now?

darkman2 · 18-03-2008 12:03am

Posted this on NW

Certainly looks good for SE England for some snow showers on Saturday with maxima around two or three degrees and a nice dose of Artic air. Those further west dont despair just yet and keep your eyes on this feature to the west of Ireland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1144.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png

Over the past couple of runs its been getting closer and is coming up against very cold air on its Eastern flank. Southeast England will do well out of this but others may have the last laugh on Saturday

Model runs-late february to end of march

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