Model runs-late february to end of march

Snowbie

18z gone from a reload of a northerly to a disturbance off our west coast in one run.
Swings and roundabouts once again.

From the 18z indicates cold and frosty nights countrywide throughout easter with a chance of more general precip over the west and SW. Cool by day with the added chance of convection by day in stronger sunshine. 850mb temp ranging from -4c to -8c throughtout easter peroid.

Will the 0z paint a different picture again just like yesterdays 18z run?

nacho libre

the bbc weather tonight has the wintry weather confined to the east and north of ireland with the west fine. which has me thinking the high out in the Atlantic must be too close for comfort.

darkman2

GFS and UKMO starting to upgrade things a bit


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Lets see how the ECM goes but things looking up

ninebeanrows

The models seem to indicate the cold being shunted east...

London looks like it could see a white easter alright!

But back in Ireland it looks like were likely to be too close to the High pressure and we will be affected by shortwaves moving down the country.

darkman2

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/332/ECM1-144clf7.GIF

I agree for the moment but further upgrades cant be ruled out. Indeed there would be snow showers on that ECM chart.


168 still going........

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-168.GIF?18-0

Further snow showers


192......

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-192.GIF?18-0



An upgrade no matter what way you look at it and snow cannot be ruled out.

Just for fun - 216 lol

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?18-0

it gets better

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-240.GIF?18-0

Paddy.1

Pressure building to the north and northeast during the middle of next week according to ECMWf 12z:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1921.gif

Will be interesting to see if ECM keep up this trend. (I hope they do:))

darkman2

Looking forward to the 18z GFS - UKMO/ECM and GFS have all upgraded - even though its not perfect it will be interesting to see ater what happens.

Supercell

I just see rain and hail showers in the west and very high ground from these charts.

Speaking of which...

LOL...


Thats probably the most unrealistic chart I've seen in a long time.

(Note it's a hot link that will change when the 18z rolls shortly)

nacho libre

John Eagleton's forecast tonight seemed to echo what bb said a few days ago.
So, it'll be cool, rather than being bitterly cold, with crappy rain and sleet showers, with any snow confined to the highest ground.

Snowbie

Well its a hatrick of 18z in a row and again so much different to the 12z.
No reloading of cold for sunday and the atlantic is drawn in much quicker and pushes the cold eastward.
The guessing game continues with this run.

nacho libre

Taken from met.ie:

Turning cold and rather unsettled for the Easter weekend. Good Friday will be a windy day, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers or longer spells of rain. Turning very cold later, as strong northwesterly winds veer northerly in direction. There is a risk of frost in sheltered places overnight, as well as a few scattered wintry showers. Holy Saturday will be very cold, with sunny spells and scattered showers, some of the showers heavy and of hail, with a risk of thunder. Some showers of sleet or even snow are possible on mountains. Breezy, with moderate northerly winds. Frosty for a time on Saturday night, but less cold conditions, with patches of rain or sleet, will develop later in the night or early on Easter Sunday. Easter Sunday will be mostly cloudy, with outbreaks of rain and drizzle. Easter Monday will be cold, but bright, with sunny spells and just a few scattered showers.

Snowbie

Met.ie(above) Vs Metcheck

This is an update to the previously issued Weather Watch on Tue 18th March 08.

There is now high confidence that a prolonged spell of wintry conditions will dominate the UK's weather throughout the Easter weekend and into next week.

Confidence in the specifics of the cold spell is increasing and it does look as though the snow threat will now extend further west than originally thought.

The colder weather will begin to feed into northern parts later in the day on Thursday and then more especially into Friday and Saturday. Wintry showers consisting of rain, sleet, snow and hail are expected across many northern and eastern parts during Friday and into Saturday, the showers spreading inland at times. Some snow accumulations are expected by the end of Good Friday and into Saturday, especially above 200m across the north.

There is now the potential for a more significant disturbance to run down the western side of the UK during the course of Easter Sunday. As a result there is currently a threat of some sleet and snow across Ireland, Western England and Wales on Sunday. More specific details with regards to this particular feature will be available in the coming days as we get nearer to the weekend.

This Weather Watch will be updated or upgraded by 11am on Thursday 20th March.

darkman2

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/UW72-7.GIF


Would be acceptable for snow to low levels for any disturbance moving south Saturday night. Whilst still marginal it cant be ruled out yet.

ninebeanrows

Yes Saturday looks rather chill for the whole country.

850hpa sub -8c, which is quite low.

Possiblility of some snow showers Friday night into Saturday.

Cold Day Saturday, maxima of just 4-7c

Late Saturday into Sunday morning chance of some prolonged snow for high ground, depending on exact track.

Cold rain and sleet at low levels.. into Sunday AM

darkman2

18z tantilisingly close to snow for the Eastern half of the country Sunday night....I think this will come down to a complete now cast.

Paddy.1

Well gone is the dream northern blocking that ECMWF had yester:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1681.gif

However, while ECM keeps pressure high over the Newfoundland/Baffin Island area and pressure is low over Eastern Europe, the potential remains. And as long as the synoptics don't return to the hellish pattern that destroyed this winter, I abide with joy.:)

Supercell

Potential for showers in the northwest with fair weather elsewhere, I'll take that!

Snowbie

An interesting 6z just rolled out.
Eastern side of the country especially shrouded in -9 850mb from Friday evening before the little feature or shortwave runs into NI late on Saturday evening pushing south. As with all shortwaves the temp rises as it passes over the country so any precip to fall will be of rain at most elevations.

Temps before and in the wake will be low so leading edge or back edge could be of a wintry nature, sea level cold rain throughout or sleet at best.
Another feature to run down the west side on Monday with 850 temps -4c over Ireland with the cold just shunted east and entirely covering UK in -10mb 850.

Other forms of precip will be from an ever stronger sun generating land convection that could possibly bring snow to lowers levels in the heavier of the showers but this is entirely a nowcast setup.

Next few runs look interesting

patneve

meteociel shows snow clipping the eastern coast saturday (diagonal lines=snow)...very slight chance of this occurring though
Central Europe is in for a hammering though!

darkman2

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2.gif


interesting...

Trogdor

darkman2 wrote: »

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2.gif


interesting...

Unless on higher ground, anything West of this feature is just going to be cold rain. Percip will only be wintry on its Eastern side where it is up against the colder air. I think our best chance on the East coast for anything wintry will be Friday night and Saturday.

Gonzo

In January or even mid February this would be interesting and a much higher chance for snow, this is now way too marginal, its almost April, I'd say only the mountain tops will see flakes of snow, rain everywhere else.

Supercell

Probably going to be the last chance of snow this winter/spring so might as well enjoy it.
Maybe some tempory lying snow up at Sally Gap and higher, for the rest of us probably occasional sleet and very wet snow is all we are going to see.
I'll enjoy it anyhow as for once won't be be work clicking refresh on my webcam lol!

arctictree

Gonzo wrote: »

In January or even mid February this would be interesting and a much higher chance for snow, this is now way too marginal, its almost April, I'd say only the mountain tops will see flakes of snow, rain everywhere else.

I remember getting 6 inches of snow in late March 2004 (I think). It started snowing in the afternoon and kept snowing until the next morning. The next afternoon was a slushy mess in +10c sunshine.

A

Gonzo

I think i only ever remember gettin decent snow in March/April twice in my lifetime, last time I remember it was definitely mid 80s around 1986, I remember waking up to 8 inchs of snow and by evening there was barely an inch left on the ground it melted so fast.

Planet X

1999, April 14th, Stillorgan, at least 3 inches of snow.
My son was born the next day.
We took pictures..............of the snow aswell.

arctictree

Planet X wrote: »

1999, April 14th, Stillorgan, at least 3 inches of snow.
My son was born the next day.
We took pictures..............of the snow aswell.

Yes, the charts seem to confirm this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1999/Rrea00119990414.gif

Must have been a very cold day!

A

Paddy.1

ECMWF's pressure build to north is back on for end of next week: 144hrs, a nor'easter over Iceland/Greenland:



Encouraging to say the least, though still cruelly far out. Hope there is no back down in later runs.

Incidently, while there is reminiscence going on. This feature on the 1st of April 1917 brought over a foot of snow to many parts of the county, with drifts of up to 10 meters over West Connaght and North Munster:



No doubt this event was in part initiated by the ongoing coldness of that winter over Northern Europe, but the April of 1917 was one of the coldest of the 20th century with frequent snowfalls during the first half of the month especially. Snow lay for many days nationwide.

April is a funny month...:cool:

darkman2

ECM and UKMO both very interesting tonight from 96hrs onward. Looks good for next week in general.