Model runs-late february to end of march

Snowbie

darkman2 wrote: »

All so different just 100 miles to our East. The setup is not even marginal - its completely out of the question for snow tonight.

I agree.
Expect doomsday over on NW so.:D
Will they even put any trust in their "pub run"

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote: »

850hpa temperatures of around -5c, temperatures of 2-4c and moderate precipitation falling.

I reckon 4 inches from 400 metres up with slushy stuff from as low as 200metre up.

+250 metres I think , though i'd take an unlikely slushy stuff here at 205 metres:)

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

850hpa temperatures of around -5c, temperatures of 2-4c and moderate precipitation falling.

I reckon 4 inches from 400 metres up with slushy stuff from as low as 200metre up.

850 temps will rise to -3 tonight - Not saying snow is impossible on the highest ground but unfortunately for everyone in a habitable place certain criteria have to be met and none of the four basic ones are. Dont forget air thicknesses aswell will be above 528DAM tonight - thats not 'marginal' thats not a chance. Would not rule out sleet on higher ground though. Snow lying for the very tops of the mountains around 900m's.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

850hpa temperatures of around -5c, temperatures of 2-4c and moderate precipitation falling.

I reckon 4 inches from 400 metres up with slushy stuff from as low as 200metre up.

I agree with that assessment but then thats obvious from what I've posted already.
What can't be forgotten here is that there is a rabbit coming out of the hat that usually isn't there and thats in the form of existing cold surface air.
This is a night time event mainly and the front is travelling down in the worst possible conditions for warming that surface air irrespective of a slight warming aloft.

I'd be very surprised if anyone saw a flake at sea level of course-but you never know these things have a nack of surprising people.

arctictree

Longfield wrote: »

+250 metres I think , though i'd take an unlikely slushy stuff here at 205 metres:)

I'll take that! I'm just above 250 here! (250 at my gate and 260 at the top of the garden!). Anyone know when the precip will arrive?

darkman2

Snowbie wrote: »

I agree.
Expect doomsday over on NW so.:D
Will they even put any trust in their "pub run"

*cough* I was not actually saying there would be no snow in England but the occlusion wont be as active as some seem to believe. 2cm's if they are lucky. Remember they seem to have ignored the fact that over the last couple of runs the warm sector has been snaking ever closer to the East coast of England

Supercell

darkman2 wrote: »

850 temps will rise to -3 tonight - Not saying snow is impossible on the highest ground but unfortunately for everyone in a habitable place certain criteria have to be met and none of the four basic ones are. Dont forget air thicknesses aswell will be above 528DAM tonight - thats not 'marginal' thats not a chance. Would not rule out sleet on higher ground though. Snow lying for the very tops of the mountains around 900m's.

Yep, though I think it may be a little lower due to cooler temps at the clearance, but around that during the main event.

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

I'll take that! I'm just above 250 here! (250 at my gate and 260 at the top of the garden!). Anyone know when the precip will arrive?

maybe 2 or 3am ie the coldest part of the night

Supercell

arctictree wrote: »

I'll take that! I'm just above 250 here! (250 at my gate and 260 at the top of the garden!). Anyone know when the precip will arrive?

I meant +250 to WC's forecast..ie 650 metres..sorry AT!

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

maybe 2 or 3am ie the coldest part of the night

Actually the warmest part of the night for upper temps and dp's;)

patneve

If the sky was clear chances would increase for higher ground! Unfortunately we have this horrible overcast stuff above us.

Supercell

Rain is nailed on at this point for Ireland except for very very high up where no-one lives here.
Its just going to be cold rain later. I'm going to watch a dvd, rain later isnt really that exciting.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Actually the warmest part of the night for upper temps and dp's;)

Which I've already discounted regarding their effect for our high grounders tonight. Besides It wasn't the point I was making unless you think People generally go around saying things like "Brrrr,it's cold tonight the dewpoint must be very low,the upper air temps must be low"

People talk of cold in terms of air temp.

ninebeanrows

Something sneaking in under the radar, probably hopeless but a similar event to tonights with better temps for Sunday NIGHT/Monday Morning

UKM goes for it..



and precip

Snowbie

darkman2 wrote: »

All so different just 100 miles to our East. The setup is not even marginal - its completely out of the question for snow tonight.

darkman2 wrote: »

*cough* I was not actually saying there would be no snow in England but the occlusion wont be as active as some seem to believe. 2cm's if they are lucky. Remember they seem to have ignored the fact that over the last couple of runs the warm sector has been snaking ever closer to the East coast of England

Also to note the warm sector contains the heavier precip. Seems the hills over there will do well out of this but the east coast of the UK(low ground) will see snow but light snow at that as they are still in the cold pool of air. 2cm's is near generous, just a dusting for the majority on low levels in their east.

18z will finalise things.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Something sneaking in under the radar, probably hopeless but a similar event to tonights with better temps for Sunday NIGHT/Monday Morning




Thank you - I was wondering if someone would notice it. Ive been looking at Monday carefully for the last 2 days. GFS is having none of it but the UKMO has consistently shown something approaching potential on the Eastern side of the front. The reason is the air its bumping up against - IMHO less marginal then tonight.













GFS having none of it though...

darkman2

GFS ups Mondays risk for the East


http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-1-36.png?18

Paddy.1

After a day of big convection on Wednesday, potential storm brewing towards end of the week according to ECMWF:




Northern blocking still a feature thereafter with this model, but yet again is held off a while longer. Also looks a lot warmer that earlier runs:



Yesterday's 12z run::)



Some big showers if that came off..:)

Paddy.1

Pressure cell of 1035 mb over Newfoundland at 168hrs (ECM)



Encouraging for the northern block.:)

Rest of the run isn't that bad either...

216hrs

followed by a 1040er mb over Iceland at 240hrs

mike65

Why are you happy at the idea of bollock freezing weather and storms in March/April

I just ran the sequence to 360 hrs on wettercentral and its total crap - barely a day you'd called civilised, I hope they've got it wrong.

Mike.

Paddy.1

mike65 wrote: »

Why are you happy at the idea of bollock freezing weather and storms in March/April

Mike.

Sorry!!. I like the synoptics ECM is churning out lately, nothern block and all, for not so much the cold, I just love deep easterlys anytime, and at this time of year, coupled with a slack low pressure gradient, thunder is possible. That is why I am excited.

ninebeanrows

Im all for the build up of heat now too.

We are heading into April soon and i look forward to a few nice spring days with the leaves back on the trees, a nice 17c, sunny Spring day would go down a treat

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote: »

Im all for the build up of heat now too.

We are heading into April soon and i look forward to a few nice spring days with the leaves back on the trees, a nice 17c, sunny Spring day would go down a treat

WC, I agree totally.

Snow at this time of year melts in no time, lets have nice warm days with green lovely Irish landscapes and gentle breezes.

Edit: I'd take thunderstorm and hail/sneachta showers too

Paddy.1

Longfield wrote: »

WC, I agree totally.

Snow at this time of year melts in no time, lets have nice warm days with green lovely Irish landscapes and gentle breezes.

The thing is, that is actually what happen all winter. Warm and green is all we have had with a complete lack of any great winds. Bring this easterly on I say, whether warm or cold, I don't care.

Paddy.1

Well those looking for a more spring flavour to things could get there wish if ECMWF's latest run is to be believed at 192hrs:



Looks like a thundery set up though...:)

Paddy1

You show me heaven

Paddy.1

Looking good for convective showers from 120hrs onwards according to ECM:



Northern block still story of this model.:)

SpitfireIV

Germany is getting a lot of snow :rolleyes:

Just as well that I´m in Germany so!

Arrived here last Wednesday to some very heavy snow showers, we had a light sprinkling Sunday morning and now the forecast is showing more snow for today and tonight . Its sunny outside now, looks lovely but its bitterly cold and bits of snow blowing about.......I´m going for a walk

On that note...Time for Rory Bremner I think

Paddy.1

Deleted User wrote: »

On that note...Time for Rory Bremner I think

Hilarious Puts our weather in context...