Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

Paddy.1

GFS latest run now has storm centre to the near NW on Monday..



Much chopping and changing up to D Day I reckon.

Off topic, It is actually getting very windy here now, is there anybody else noticeing this?

Paddy.1

Snowbie wrote: »

Also trailing this potent storm on Monday is another storm for Wedensday.FI but the jet streak is very active, so the possibility is 50/50 for the second to happen even this far out.

I'll just get my kite dusted off..:o

Mothman

I suggest thread titled changed to highlight potential

Duiske

Seen some discussion on Netweather of a possible severe storm forecast for Ireland and nothern parts of the uk from sunday evening into monday afternoon.

This is from the Guardian newspaper this morning.

Snowbie

Mothman wrote: »

I suggest thread titled changed to highlight potential

Agreed. Title changed.

Duiske

Sorry about that Snowbie. Did not see this thread.

Snowbie

Duiske wrote: »

Sorry about that Snowbie. Did not see this thread.

Thats no problem.

From the 12z, there will be minimum gale force winds for a sustained 24hrs starting 2100 Sunday evening to 2100 monday evening.

I have family due to land in Dublin around 9pm-10pm Sunday - what ya reckon!?

Mad windy here NOW!

JanuarySnowstor

The latest fax has the core over Dublin
Everything South of this takes a violent hammering
Cork looks..........:eek:

homosapien

each successive GFS run over the past 36 hours or so intensifies this "manic" depression for 9/10th March. The time period of strong winds has also been extended, either that or my eyes are beginning to fail me usually the other way around from my memory of past "bombs"....with downgrades closer to the expected timeframe of arrival on our shores ..perhaps still time for this. I'm also in Cork and we had moderate winds earlier in evening and I was thinking what things will be like this time Sunday/early Monday!

nacho libre

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The latest fax has the core over Dublin
Everything South of this takes a violent hammering
Cork looks..........:eek:

just a question on that; how come when a storm goes in over, either the South of England or Northern France, the strongest winds are not to be found south of the low pressure system? where as over Ireland if it tracks over the centre of the country the strongest winds will be to the south of the low pressure's track?

kerry1960

something totally off topic , but here's the result of my elderly parents in law's misadventures with a frying pan , i took this cameraphone pic at 4.30pm (thu) in tralee while the firemen finished 'mopping up' inside/downstairs/kitchen section , utterly destroyed , a disaster ,but at least there both ok .

im not even sure why i posted this , after all this is a weather forum , but the thoughts of sun/mon's storm destructive wind potential is'nt very good is it , it's grand if you live underground/under water , or on a beach , but people who are ramping a major storm ,cop on , these yokes are lethal ,

im praying this is one event that does not happen

Paddy.1

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Cork looks..........:eek:

Always did;)
Looking at the latest fax chart and gfs run (00hrs), there seems to be a firming up that the center of the low will pass directly over Ireland. A few miles north or south will have a huge impact on a local level. There is also a nice wrap-a-round occlusion being progged on its immediate back edge which could bring the potential for some sleety snowie messy type percipitation in the breeze:


As others have mentioned, Southern areas seems to be most at risk at this stage from the strongest winds, but the initial southerly looks quite potent as well.
With a low that explosive passing over the auld sod, It wouldn't surprise me if there are random and sparodic falls of snow locally as the "eye" crosses over.

Is there a major pattern change emerging?

M.T. Cranium

I hope for the best but fear the worst seeing this very strong low just three days away now ... central pressure seems to be dropping on this latest model run again, 945 mbs. Suggests the potential for 100 mph wind gusts on Monday in some parts of Ireland, and 80 mph fairly widespread. And another one will be along Wednesday ... not quite as bad (they say) ... good luck.

Mothman

As of Friday morning, this is Met Eireann take on the storm

Winds will back southerly and increase on Sunday evening, and it'll become stormy during Sunday night. Winds will gust well over 100 km/h and, together with the very strong winds, some heavy rain is expected. The stormy, wet weather will continue through Monday, the storms perhaps abating for a time before returning as winds swing westerly. Some area may receive as much as 20-30mm of rain through this stormy period. The storm will finally die down during the first half of Tuesday; the rain breaking up into showers at that stage as winds settle back to the southwest.

And Kerry1960, I'm sorry for your and your families troubles, rest assured that no one here is wishing any harm on anyone. Glad to hear your folks are safe, but obviously very traumatic

I'm off for weekend. 2 days ago I decided to cut short trip by a day having originally planned to come back on Monday.
There'll be a good bit of reading here to catch up on, upon my return.

Snowbie

@Kerry1960, sorry to hear about that, hope everyone is ok.

The chart above has the central core right in over Ireland. So we will experience a lull in some parts of the country after the initial southerly gales.Atm the southern third of the country looks like having prolonged gales throughout.

I dont think Paddy this is a good setup for snow, actually its a downgrade with the warm sector of the core over the country. The highest peaks i reckon would favour but low lying areas will be just a rain event. The back end of the storm later Monday evening will probably bring wintry showers over the western seaboard.

Enjoy your weekend MM.

hawkwing

latest metoff uk :

The Met Office is expecting an intense low pressure system to move east across the UK during Monday 10 March, bringing severe gales and potentially damaging gusts across some areas. Southerly winds are expected to strengthen during the first part of Monday but then turn westerly later. Gusts of 60 to 70mph are expected but there is a possibility of 80mph gusts over exposed coasts and hills. Much depends on the exact track of the low centre but at this stage, parts of Wales and the southern half of England are considered at greatest risk. Disruption could occur to transport and power supply networks and there may be damage to buildings. This warning will be updated around 1030 on Saturday 8 March 2008.

Issued at: 0930 Fri 7 Mar

M.T. Cranium

After looking at the 06z GFS run, the storm continues to impress with its very low central pressure of about 947 mbs and a very tight gradient over western and southern Ireland especially, from about 0300 to 2100 hours on Monday. Although the UK metoffice doesn't cover Ireland their map of risk zones shows the maximum risk extending into almost all parts of Ireland, however, I would say the west coast south of about Galway is most at risk with areas from there east to around Dublin and south being exposed to the higher gusts of this storm which could easily reach 90 or even 100 mph if the GFS has this nailed down (at 72 hours now, not that difficult to imagine). With the new moon just occurring now, high tides are already going to be above normal and with these winds west-facing harbours may be overtopped by storm surge. Some prodigious waves likely in the southwest. South coast also should get hit fairly hard by this especially perhaps the earlier stages when winds are more SW, later on they will be about W to WNW. A fairly low snow line will develop late on Monday but at elevations where most people live the precip will be either rain or hail, and quite squally at times.

ch750536

Jeebus, I'm at altitude with little cover to the south, about 20 miles inland from ballbunion.

I'll do a football test, where you kick the ball in the air as high as you can & then measure the distance travelled.

Non scientific, but fun. will try to get it on camera.

Yup according to Bren of meteogroup over on two-gusts in SW Ireland could be frequently above 100 miles per hour going on the latest ECM.
Yes thats miles not km's.
So a horrendously breezy night for you ch750536.
I'd genuinely be stocking up on the batteries and candles if I were you and a gas bottle for the cooker.

kerry1960

kerry1960 wrote: »

something totally off topic , but here's the result of my elderly parents in law's misadventures with a frying pan , i took this cameraphone pic at 4.30pm (thu) in tralee while the firemen finished 'mopping up' inside/downstairs/kitchen section , utterly destroyed , a disaster ,but at least there both ok .

im not even sure why i posted this , after all this is a weather forum , but the thoughts of sun/mon's storm destructive wind potential is'nt very good is it , it's grand if you live underground/under water , or on a beach , but people who are ramping a major storm ,cop on , these yokes are lethal ,

im praying this is one event that does not happen

i wish to apologize for my rather over the top post from earlier , of course this is a weather forum and people are perfectly entitled to express a preference for any type of weather they wish , opinions are not going to make the met situation any better or worse ........ ok , its back to filling 20ft skip today/tom , hope this upcoming storm does not harm anyone , also thanks to those for kind words.........;)

Snowbie

The track is not set in stone as yet and i dont think it will be untill +12. The core could still wobble north off the north coast affecting the whole island with sustained winds and gusts. Atm its likely the southern third of Ireland will bare the brunt but the core is due to track right in over head here in Dublin.

The winds be cyclonic variable for a time after southerly gales and pick back up from the west as the core passes from a line Dublin to Galway north of that.

nacho libre

according to the bbc weather, at lunchtime, it showed the low tracking in over northern ireland not in over the centre of ireland. Don't all rush to answer my earlier question:)

Snowbie

nacho libre wrote: »

just a question on that; how come when a storm goes in over, either the South of England or Northern France, the strongest winds are not to be found south of the low pressure system? where as over Ireland if it tracks over the centre of the country the strongest winds will be to the south of the low pressure's track?

Friction over a landmass tends to slow winds down. Hills or any elevated land/buildings can cause friction.

While here, well were just a dot in the ocean but winds would not be as strong over land as would be around the coast.

Tails142

Issued at 09:59 Friday, 7 Mar 2008



SEVERE WEATHER ALERT



An intense Atlantic storm is expected to cross Ireland during Sunday night and Monday.

Southeast to East winds, later becoming West to Northwest, are expected to reach mean speeds of 35 to 50 kt at times (65 to 95 km/h), with gusts of 60 to 90 kt (110 to 170 km/hr).

Heavy rain and high seas during this period could lead to some localised flooding.






Valid 1800 Sunday 9/3/2008
to 0600 Tuesday 11/3/2008

mike65

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/ani/gfs/

Mike.

rc28

Tails142 wrote: »

Issued at 09:59 Friday, 7 Mar 2008



SEVERE WEATHER ALERT



An intense Atlantic storm is expected to cross Ireland during Sunday night and Monday.

Southeast to East winds, later becoming West to Northwest, are expected to reach mean speeds of 35 to 50 kt at times (65 to 95 km/h), with gusts of 60 to 90 kt (110 to 170 km/hr).

Heavy rain and high seas during this period could lead to some localised flooding.






Valid 1800 Sunday 9/3/2008
to 0600 Tuesday 11/3/2008

:eek::eek:
That's the highest ever wind forecast from meteireann I can ever remember!
170 km/h equals 105.6 mph.:eek:

DOCARCH

rc28 wrote: »

:eek::eek:
That's the highest ever wind forecast from meteireann I can ever remember!
170 km/h equals 105.6 mph.:eek:

Exact same sentiment - never seen gust forecasts of 170 km/h!!!

rc28

What part of met.ie is that warning from, I can't find it?

JanuarySnowstor

Probaly from some foolish weather crowd like weathercheck:D

Only joking Matty