Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

Cornilius

So there is no snow risk?

Paddy.1

I am not really expecting widespread snow Snowbie as the low passes, just sparodic localised possibilities. I just think the intense mixing of air will cause shortlived and very localized variations, particularly as low moves to one's east.
Plenty of rain is still more of a possibility though:rolleyes:

GFS latest run certainly is a downgrade alright though. Still looking potent though for Munster at this stage.

JanuarySnowstor

You must be mad Paddy if you see a downgrade in that
Maybe for Galway but for the South it looks dangerous for most of Monday

Paddy.1

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You must be mad Paddy if you see a downgrade in that
Maybe for Galway but for the South it looks dangerous for most of Monday

Isn't that what I said....? or is Munster not in the south?

JanuarySnowstor

This storm is making news already before it even starts

I just hope my half built garage roof doesn't try to "glide" away

Paddy.1

This link was posted up on TWO earlier today with regards tides and stuff. But animated air pressure charts and wind etc are contained within it as well with zoom in/out features. I am not sure what models they use, but seems tie in with latest GFS synoptical outlooks.

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/pressure/in/

Handy I think to get a more 'homely' view:)

Supercell

One of my colleagues in work who sits by a seat with a view of Dublin bay said he was seeing big ships leaving the bay all day, very unusual. We both reckoned they must be seeking shelter somewhere safter.

SpitfireIV

Longfield wrote: »

One of my colleagues in work who sits by a seat with a view of Dublin bay said he was seeing big ships leaving the bay all day, very unusual. We both reckoned they must be seeking shelter somewhere safter.

Interesting that, maybe they were listening to the 2fm news today , whom had a news snip on the approaching storm, something about some bridge in Dublin which might have to be closed and sand bags being distributed for the potential flooding which may occour.

Just as a side note, and probably completely unrelated, but the past couple of days I've noticed a hell of a lot of seagulls here around the river in the town, never seen so many this far inland before, does be a feckin' load of them circling around in the sky too, noisy buggers! Could they be inland for shelter, knowing whats coming?

M.T. Cranium

Naco libre, I would be game to answer your question, but I don't quite understand it as first posed there ... storms that go in over southern England or France also have their strongest winds to the south, generally speaking, although we have to go back to past years to find many. But perhaps there is more to this question than meets my eye?

Trogdor

Heavy rain, spring tides, and low pressure=trying times for the river bank:eek: as long as the low doesn't slip South and pull in Easterlies here I think we should be reasonably safe flooding wise altough details can certainly change as we get closer. Although we are now overdue a flood(usually every 20 years) last was hurricane charlie in 86.
They're going round with the sandbags
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0307/weather.html

Supercell

nacho libre wrote: »

just a question on that; how come when a storm goes in over, either the South of England or Northern France, the strongest winds are not to be found south of the low pressure system? where as over Ireland if it tracks over the centre of the country the strongest winds will be to the south of the low pressure's track?

They always are, even in NH hurricane centres, not sure how you came to this conclusion?

Snowbie

Or is it he meant why are they not as potent as what we frequently see here and in UK is why i answered this?

Snowbie wrote:

Friction over a landmass tends to slow winds down. Hills or any elevated land/buildings can cause friction.

While here, well were just a dot in the ocean but winds would not be as strong over land as would be around the coast.

I too am trying to decipher that question.

pp_me129

Any more news on this? looking quite interesting

Gonzo

some of the forecasters like sky news and bbc were hinting at snow and wintry weather for monday up till yesterday but this has now changed to rain and temperatures around 7 to 9C, looks like the snow risk is gone except for high ground maybe but one thing is for certain its gonna be very windy and feeling very cold in that severe wind.

LookingFor

Some detail via RTE:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0307/weather.html

Dublin City Council have erected sea defences and announced temporary road closures because of a flood warning.

The council say there is a risk of flooding late on Sunday night and around lunchtime on Monday because of high tides.

They have put dam bags on seafront areas in Sandymount, Ringsend and Clontarf.

They will also be closing the Liffey boardwalk and nine road sections in Sandymount during the alert periods.

These periods will last from 11pm to 2am on Sunday night and 11.30am to 12.30pm on Monday.

A Met Éireann spokesperson said it is too early to say what conditions will be like.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Naco libre, I would be game to answer your question, but I don't quite understand it as first posed there ... storms that go in over southern England or France also have their strongest winds to the south, generally speaking, although we have to go back to past years to find many. But perhaps there is more to this question than meets my eye?

ah i must be mistaken then.

The reason i asked the question is because of the storms, that generated gusts of over 90 mph, hitting Northern France in recent years. of course this is probably a rare enough occurence there, but it just seemed that recently when storms have developed off the west coast of French they have been fairly potent.
what i found confusing was given France obviously has a way bigger landmass than us how come gusts this strong could be sustained as the low pressue system would move in from the coast. As I recall it being mentioned on the news that places like amiens - which is well inland - recorded gusts in excess of 90 mph.
the strong winds that i mentioned being in the northern half were probably due to the rapidly developing low pressure having a tight gradient so the strongest winds were generated in its aftermath rather than the strongest winds being located close to the low as it moved across the country. Is that plausible?

themadchef

I'm really worried about Sunday. I remember my old geography teacher saying if pressure went below 950 then it was going to be major storm.

Our house is right on the sea (thank god it's an evelated site).

Hate storms. Just feel like it's going to be awful

Better get my candles ready tomorrow, no doubt we will lose power, always do!

darkman2

There will be snow for a time between 2am and 11am on Monday morning in the East, South and North. This will likely lead to disruption during rush hour.

Paddy.1

That sounds very precise Darkman. Typically the west misses out on all the good stuff.

Ah well.. better luck next time, eh.

If latest ecm anything to go by, wednesday, as others metioned earlier, could be another rough day, this time in the north and north east by the looks of things.

maquiladora

It's the lead story on RTE news.....

Warning of severe weather this weekend


Met Éireann is warning of severe winds and heavy rain later this weekend.

The worst conditions are expected to hit Irish coasts on Sunday night and Monday.

Dublin City Council has also begun precautionary measures to combat flooding in the capital.

Met Éireann is forecasting very stormy conditions with heavy rain and the risk of some flooding on Sunday night and Monday.

A band of exceptionally low pressure is expected to bring severe winds -particularly in the south of the country.

Wind gusts of up to 120 or 130 km/h are likely, with rainfall of about 20-30mm expected between Sunday night and Monday.

Unusually high tides are also posing a risk of flooding in some areas.

Dublin City Council is taking precautionary measures on seafront areas, with dam bags installed in Sandymount, Ringsend and Clontarf.

The Liffey boardwalk and nine sections of road will also be closed during the flood alert periods - from 11pm on Sunday night to 2am on Monday and from 11.30pm to 12.30pm on Monday.

Fishermen and sailors are being warned of hostile conditions on the Irish Sea.

Met Éireann is also advising drivers to expect difficult conditions on roads around the country.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0308/weather.html

maquiladora

Flood alert along coast as 'worst storm of the century' approaches

By Patricia McDonagh
Saturday March 08 2008


COASTAL areas in Dublin are to be placed on flood alert this weekend because of expected high tides and stormy weather conditions.


The flood warning, which will come into effect tomorrow between 11am and 2pm and on Monday between 11.30am and 12.30pm, is expected to cause serious disruption.

The warning, issued by Dublin City Council last night, will also see the Liffey Boardwalk closed during the alert period.

Met Eireann has predicted that the weekend will be one of the windiest spells this winter.

It has issued gale force warnings of well over 100kmh for tomorrow, with stormy conditions set to continue on Monday.

High winds are also predicted to hit Britain in what experts have warned the "worst storm of the century".

During the flood alerts, roads in the Sandymount area will be closed, while dam bags are being placed in at-risk seafront areas. Parts of Beach Road, Strand Road, Merrion Gates, Marine Drive junction and Seafort Avenue junction will all be closed.

Lea Road junction, Gilford Avenue junction and Newgrove Avenue junction will also be closed, while the pedestrian access to Martello Tower will be closed off.

Dublin City Council last night said it had placed a number of precautionary flood measure in locations such as Sandymount, Ringsend and Clontarf.

However, it denied that sandbags will be dropped off to particularly vulnerable houses along the Tolka and Dodder rivers.

A spokesperson said precautionary measures were in addition to substantial defence works, which have been carried out over the last six years.

The strongest gales are expected to peak on Monday in the northern parts of Ireland and the weather will be particularly severe. An emergency number for Dublin City Council will be manned over the four hours of high-tide periods. Residents are being urged to call 01-6796186 if they need assistance.

- Patricia McDonagh

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/flood-alert-along-coast-as-worst-storm-of-the-century-approaches-1311149.html

arctictree

00z GFS is showing the centre of the storm right over Dublin at 12z on Monday. Will that mean temporary light winds for the capital?

A

rc28

The low is too far south for any serious winds to hit anywhere north of munster now, what sort of winds should we expect before and after the centre of the low pushes through up here?
Does anyone else think it's ridiculous to call it the storm of the century when meteireann are only forecasting max gusts of 130km/h? These are pretty ordinary for a winter/early spring low pressure. There have been plenty of times in the last few years when the met has forecasted 150km/h winds.

LookingFor

Are there any vis or IR satellite images showing this storm, yet?

Also, when does a storm like this cross the divide and, say, become a hurricane? This is probably a very stupid question, but I'm just curious. We're talking here about it being really serious if the pressure goes under 950, but what kind of pressure would you have in a hurricane?

ch750536

I think technically, according to the yanks anyway, it can never become a hurricane due to its location.

It can have hurricane force winds though.

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

just a question on that; how come when a storm goes in over, either the South of England or Northern France, the strongest winds are not to be found south of the low pressure system? where as over Ireland if it tracks over the centre of the country the strongest winds will be to the south of the low pressure's track?

Tends to be due to a number of things Nacho, but the combination of a sharp temperature contrast coinciding with an oridinary low passing closer to the quasi-stationary Azores High than usual tends to increase explosive potential and gradient squeeze.

You rightly pointed out that in general, winds tend to be strongest on the south and west sides of an active low. This is due in the main to the above factors. The Azores High tends to be quite intense normally, thus intensifing gradient squeeze to a developing low that passes to the north of it, thus the southern or western flank of the high tends to be the most potent.

The slacker northern side of a low is due to the same factors more or less. Air has mixed more successfully on northern side of a low, so less severe winds as a result, coupled with the fact that, generally speaking, there is not usually an intense high to the north of a depression to enhance gradient squeeze.

There are exceptions though, so if you see a storm on the way where the stongest winds are on the northern side of a low. Beware, there is chilly weather to come for a while..!!! I.E, intense high pressure to the north.

Paddy.1

rc28 wrote: »

Does anyone else think it's ridiculous to call it the storm of the century when meteireann are only forecasting max gusts of 130km/h? winds

It is beginning to look that way alright. Ironically, what is stopping most of us getting the brunt is the actual eye of the storm widening out as it passes over us. However, still early days yet, meteorlogically speaking

Snowbie

As the core of this LP is crossing over the country, there will be a lull in the winds before picking up from the west as i have mentioned before in this thread.

I dont think some realise in here that if the core was to stay just off the north coast then the country would have been battered by storm winds for over a 24hr peroid from three wind directions.Now this would be the storm of the century.

Although its going to be windy/stormy? for the majority of the country to begin with then a lull followed by posssibly stronger winds as the LP passes, it is less severe than what it could have been atm.
Myself i wont believe the track of the LP untill T12 out, the slightest deviation of this track can transfere the stronger winds from one place to the next if the LP wobbles.

The general consensus is that the track comes in over Ireland but where?
Over Dublin- the initial storm winds will be kept off the cork coast untill later.
Over Louth- then Cork would feel the brunt of storm force winds for the majority.

rc28

Actually meteireann are forecasting 170km/h gusts which is 105.6mph but I don't know where that poster got that warning from yesterday as this forecast only appeared on their site this morning;http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp
Issued at 08 March 2008 - 08:48
SEVERE WEATHER ALERT
An intense Atlantic storm is expected to cross Ireland during Sunday night and Monday.

Southeast to East winds, later becoming West to Northwest, are expected to reach mean speeds of 35 to 50 Kts at times (65 to 95 km/h), with gusts of 60 to 90 Kts (110 to 170 km/hr).

Heavy rain and high seas during this period could lead to some localised flooding.
Valid from 1800 hours Sunday 9/3/2008