Live Register rises to 5.2%

pfkf1

Things don't seem to be getting any better, along with 100 primary school teaching jobs to go due to cut backs, American manufacturing company symantec, is reviewing 150 jobs at their plant in Blanchardstown, a decision will be made next week, also another 40 jobs have gone from Voice Newspaper Group who have closed down most of their circulation in Ireland.

Victor

pfkf1 wrote: »

Just saw on rte.ie, that in the midlands, unemployment has reached 5.9%, that means that out of every 100 people 6 are unemployed, that is far too high.

No, its would be 6 out of every 100 workers unemployed, but thank you for the Indo-style maths.

pfkf1 wrote: »

If this continues will we see Gardai losing their jobs, nurses, this recession is becoming reality very quickly.

When was the last time you saw a Garda being made redundant?

ballooba wrote: »

Those figures are irrelevant. 80,000 people enter the worforce each year. We need total employment to increase by 80,000 plus just to keep our heads above water.

You are forgetting that 30,000-40,000 people retire every year.

pfkf1

Victor wrote: »

No, its would be 6 out of every 100 workers unemployed, but thank you for the Indo-style maths.When was the last time you saw a Garda being made redundant?

First point, you are correct, but you got my point.

But when was the last time Teachers were sacked, All I'm asking will other front line staff be sacked to make up for this governments poor handling of the economy, I'm just saying that this governments response to a big downturn in the economy is to get rid of front line staff. All I asked was will it come to this? The example of the Gardai may be a little extreme, but my point was that we are already seeing the results of a potential 8 billion deficit and unemployment reaching over 6%.

Remember the government said only 2 months ago that by the end of year we would have 5.6% unemployment, we already have 5.2%, what if he 60% off like he was for the deficit that would mean we could see unemployment hit close to 8% he (Cowen) is rapidly going down as the worst minister for Finance in the history of the state.

ballooba

Victor wrote: »

You are forgetting that 30,000-40,000 people retire every year.

That's accounted for.

Person age 20 - 64 By Year:
2003 2,395,500 (53,400 increase)
2004 2,448,900 (71,800 increase)
2005 2,520,700 (84,800 increase)
2006 2,605,500

Victor

ballooba wrote: »

That's accounted for.

Person age 20 - 64 By Year:
2003 2,395,500 (53,400 increase)
2004 2,448,900 (71,800 increase)
2005 2,520,700 (84,800 increase)
2006 2,605,500

Hmmm, slightly different as it includes immigration. The number of school / college leavers is lower.

Raintonite

These are sort of strange times indeed. I remember last summer as rumblings began to emerge in the property market that many people claimed property prices never go down or at worst we might see a little stagnation before the boom took off in full flight some time in 2008. Now I'm reading posts where the unemployemnt figures are seen a temporary blips or something not really relevant to ongoing economic progress of the country. More messages of: "don't worry, be happy." Like everyone else, I don't want to see a recession. I am not, however, willing to sit back and ignore what looks likely to be a large budget deficit this year, a gloomy jobs market, tight credit and increasing base costs. The average punter needs to be informed about the situation in order to make budgetary plans but it seems there is a signficant proportion of the Irish population who wish to perpetuate a myth that everyone and everything will be just fine. It seems that there is a vicarious wish by vested interests to put a good spin on any news in order to lure the average sucker into taking on board more debt so that the vested interests will still see a good profit from their various business ventures. I just wonder how many suckers there are in Ireland?

Moriarty

Perception has a lot to do with how hard a slowdown this will be Raintonite. If everyone is told that a recession is coming and to batten down the hatches it will be a lot more severe for everyone as confidence in the economy will be lost.

pfkf1

Moriarty wrote: »

Perception has a lot to do with how hard a slowdown this will be Raintonite. If everyone is told that a recession is coming and to batten down the hatches it will be a lot more severe for everyone as confidence in the economy will be lost.

While that is true, people aren't stupid and you can see consumer confidence has gone way down, this can be seen by the way VAT returns have come nowhere near expectation, and by shouting recession from the rooftops will only ignite the situation, the fact remains that people seem to be aware of the fact that the economy is up the stream without a paddle.

Moriarty

I'd agree that people are aware we're not in boom-time any longer but I don't think it's fair to say that the majority, or even a sizeable minority, believe we're in recession. People realise credit isn't as easy to get these days, but it's still pretty readily available by historic standards.

Personally, I don't think it'll be as bad as it was in 2000/2001, nevermind anything more serious. I've heard a few forecasts over the past week or two saying that growth is expected to increase again towards the end of the year.

Zombrex

pfkf1 wrote: »

That may be the case, however, it is preferable to keep the live register as low as possible, especially in a year where we are heading for a 8 billion deficit, we can't afford to pay out that level of benefits and hope to maintain our economic growth and budget surpluses.

Well it is more accurate to say that it is necessary to keep the live register as low as it needs to be. Waste is not good, but at the same time the live register serves a valuable function. For example I had a friend who had to mind her mum full time for a while after she had a stroke. As far as I know she would be counted on the live register full time, and the benefits she got where huge help to her.

pfkf1 wrote: »

It is simply not good news to have a record increase in the live register 8,500 people claiming benefits, 5.2% the highest since 1999

Its the highest since 1999 in Febuary, the live register has crept above 5 before, but normally in summer months. It is a more of a signalling that the economy is turning down.

Don't get me wrong, I think the current government are a pack of idiots, my point is simply that it is more productive to discuss these figures with a clear head.

silverharp

it's text book end of bubble consequences. You can't have the biggest property bubble in history without having a considerable hangover. The trick will be to keep taxes steady, don't start borrowing, thankfully they cant go above 3% and let the market sort it out. Given that most of Europe is in a different part of the cycle there won't be a collapse of multinationals here etc. so its not the end of the world unless you are selling Spanish property to paddies!

Fursey

Benedict XVI wrote: »

All that is true but the problem is people had the chance to make a change of gov. less than a year ago and they (the people) F**ked up.

Papa - a change of Government would not have made much difference, FF & FG have much the same economic policies and many of the storms coming our way this year are beyond our ability to influence.

The rise in the price of Oil, the decline of the Dollar and to a lesser extent Sterling is out of our control.

But all the indicators are that 2008 will be the worst year for the Irish Economy since the early 1990's.

Raintonite

Moriarty wrote: »

I'd agree that people are aware we're not in boom-time any longer but I don't think it's fair to say that the majority, or even a sizeable minority, believe we're in recession. People realise credit isn't as easy to get these days, but it's still pretty readily available by historic standards.

Personally, I don't think it'll be as bad as it was in 2000/2001, nevermind anything more serious. I've heard a few forecasts over the past week or two saying that growth is expected to increase again towards the end of the year.

I know that sentiment plays a large part in our demand lead economy. But it is the very reason that credit is so readily available, although not as ultra-cheap as before, that is the root casue of our problems imo. It is somehow deemed patriotic to take on huge individual (or family) debt burdens so that manufacturing and service providers can make whopping great profits. Imo, we need to begin to educate people about the long term consequences of huge debt burdens. These mountainous debt burdens are not only going to hinder the present generation but generations to come. We have become so used to consuming for the moment we seem to have forgotten about the future. The political establishment, imo, has nutured this economic climate.

As far as the Irish economy beginning to expand again at year end, I just cannot agree with this sentiment. I view as the major obstacles to Irish economic expansion:

1. Higher credit costs and tougher lending criteria
2. Contraction of the construction industry and ancilliary services
3. The US recession (c. 90,000 Irish employees of US multinationals).
The fact that the US has for the first time in modern history become
a debtor nation. It income no longer meets its total debt obligations.
4. Higher energy costs (the IEA estimates 1 trillions dollars need to be
spent globally to satisfy growing demand. Nowhere near this
investment is taking place. There is a very real perception that the
middle east just doesn't having the required pumping capacity to meet
growing demand. Green energy sources are more expensive than
traditonal sources.
5. The base line price increases in other commodities
6. The probability that China will no longer be able to export price
deflation through cheap goods.

While Ireland is indeed better place than in the past to weather this storm, I just can't help thinking that govermental policy, especially in the last five years, has encouraged the demand side our economy through debt accumulation while being somewhat ineffective in creating a decent supply side environment. It was just too easy to ride back into power on the perception that asset prices and wages always go up and never go down.

pfkf1

Wicknight wrote: »

Well it is more accurate to say that it is necessary to keep the live register as low as it needs to be. Waste is not good, but at the same time the live register serves a valuable function. For example I had a friend who had to mind her mum full time for a while after she had a stroke. As far as I know she would be counted on the live register full time, and the benefits she got where huge help to her.


Its the highest since 1999 in Febuary, the live register has crept above 5 before, but normally in summer months. It is a more of a signalling that the economy is turning down.

Don't get me wrong, I think the current government are a pack of idiots, my point is simply that it is more productive to discuss these figures with a clear head.

I absolutely agree that the live register is important for people who are made redundant or who fall ill suddenly, it is a fantastic tool for that.

However I have to say you're incorrect about the live register going above 5% before according to the cso.ie, from their publications it certainly hasn't happened since before 2002, and the only reason why I can't say further back is because they don't have the figures going back further in their recent publication.

And the QNHS hasn't gone above 5% since the 4thQ in 1999, we have a live register of over 5% for the last 2 months now, and the 4thQ of 2007 was 4.6%, so the trend would indicate that we will reach over 5% in the 1st quarter of 2008.

EDIT: you can see from this link that the last time the live register went above 5% was November 1999, it is the highest the live register has been since August 1999. And if we were to go above 6% this year which is a real possibility it would be the first time that had happened since December 1998.
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/2004/lregan_jan2004.pdf

ballooba

Victor wrote: »

Hmmm, slightly different as it includes immigration. The number of school / college leavers is lower.

We're talking about workforce growth.;)

berliner

could there be too many immigrants in Ireland?187,900 on the dole.....Weird country.

ballooba

berliner wrote: »

could there be too many immigrants in Ireland?187,900 on the dole.....Weird country.

A good portion of those are people who don't want to work. They probably give out about d'immigrants too, taking the jobs they'd never do.

Moriarty

Moriarty wrote: »

Perception has a lot to do with how hard a slowdown this will be Raintonite. If everyone is told that a recession is coming and to batten down the hatches it will be a lot more severe for everyone as confidence in the economy will be lost.

Post of the thread tbh.
Perception mostly is what has slowed this economy down but not by much.
I had two chaps out to me yesterday wanting to take my number so they could tell the dole office that they looked for work from me.They were locals by the way.
I reported them.

As regards the rest of the contributions on this thread,alls that is missing is the cries of "where were you in 1922"..

It's interesting but regretfull to see this new breed of civil war politics in this day and age.

ballooba

Bertie Ahern in Irish Times wrote:

"Employment is still being generated. It's going to be a hard year, and we need to keep working hard at it."

Bertie spins this line over and over again. He just keeps going on about how many jobs we are creating. It's great that we are still creating more jobs than we are losing. Really it is. It means absolutely nothing though.

Circa 85,000 people joined the workforce in 2005, and circa 75,000 the year before. (Latest figures) Bertie's statements would seem to imply a breakeven point where job creation equals job losses. That is not the breakeven point.

If we are only creating as many jobs as we are losing then there are no jobs for new entrants to the job market. This includes immigrants and those coming of age and is offset by those emmigrating and those retiring.

ballooba

Deleted User wrote: »

Perception mostly is what has slowed this economy down but not by much.

Indeed. The perception that mortgage repayments kept going up. Blind confidence is not much good when you are crippled with mortgage repayments. The end of cheap credit is what has brought about this situation in Ireland. The factors are largely internal.

Raintonite

What I find a bit frightening at the moment is BA's assertion that 2008 will be a bad year due to the US recession. This is more or less admitting that things may yet get worse. Typical BA and governmental spin: 'Things are bad in the Irish economy but it's not our fault and we bear no responsibility.' Where have I heard that before!

As far as jobs are concerned, I wonder how many are in the high end category, so much lauded by this adminstration, and how many are minimum wage jobs? The growth in construction employment tended to create good wage packets - well above min wage. Things have stalled in this sector and I'm afraid they may get worse. From experience, I can definitely say things are bad, construction wise, in the northwest.

irish_bob

pfkf1 wrote: »

This compares to 4.6% last year, an extra 8,500 people have signed on, this government are quickly going down in as the worst government in the history of the state, and if these figures continue we could be looking at unemployment reaching well over 6% this year.

It also the 4th consecutive increase of the live register, and this coupled with a potential 8 billion deficit this year, we are in a recession, this government have become tired and complacent, which has shown up in the health, transport, crime and now the economy.

These are very worrying times ahead, with this incompetent government in charge.

It is highest level of unemployment since 1999, and is the single highest monthly increase in the live register in absolute terms.

The Celtic Tiger is now dead.

as long as your a public sector worker , it doesnt matter that the celtic pussy is taken a nap

Moriarty

""Employment is still being generated." - Bertie" thread merged back into this one.

Tha Gopher

ballooba wrote: »

A good portion of those are people who don't want to work. They probably give out about d'immigrants too, taking the jobs they'd never do.

What about laid off construction workers? Yes, there are other jobs, but if you offer a guy used to 35k a year the choice of going on the dole and waiting for work or commiting to 40 hours a week in a minimum wage job, he is going to pick the option that brings less money but leaves more free time to go looking for well paid work.

guinnessdrinker

ballooba wrote: »

If we are only creating as many jobs as we are losing then there are no jobs for new entrants to the job market. This includes immigrants and those coming of age and is offset by those emmigrating and those retiring.

But of the jobs being created how many are part time? What I would like to know is for every full time job lost, how many full time jobs are created?

berliner

ballooba wrote: »

A good portion of those are people who don't want to work. They probably give out about d'immigrants too, taking the jobs they'd never do.

The PC Police would be after me if i answered this so i'll say no more.

ballooba

Tha Gopher wrote: »

What about laid off construction workers? Yes, there are other jobs, but if you offer a guy used to 35k a year the choice of going on the dole and waiting for work or commiting to 40 hours a week in a minimum wage job, he is going to pick the option that brings less money but leaves more free time to go looking for well paid work.

I can sympathise with that. I was talking more about the long term unemployed. Very few of those 189,000 are recently laid off construction workers.

I do think though that construction workers are going to have to take a hit unless they can transfer their skills to another discipline. Construction workers have enjoyed a cushy position for the last 12 years or so that could only be sustained by the property bubble. They've been carried along by other sectors.

knipex

O'really? wrote: »

Can you please outline what decisions (bar the reduction in Corporate tax which was FF policy)

Errrrrrrr

Dont you mean PD policy ???

gurramok

I think we're now in recession.

CSO data out for Q4 '07 shows seasonally adjusted GDP at -0.8% GDP and -2.2% GNP from Q3.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/mhojmhsncwql/

No wonder there were big rises in the live register in the subsequent months.