McCain to win election

Chong · 29-10-2008 2:35pm

I for one dont want McCain to win but I bet at work he will win, I cannot see Obama winning this despite what Polls and media say.

Ludo · 29-10-2008 2:55pm

I agree...I honestly can't see Obama winning this no matter what the polls are saying. Maybe it is the fact I have no faith in US "democracy".
When I see people like Joe the bloody plumber or Sarah Palin being treated like some sort of expert in international or economic affairs, it makes me think the common conception of Americans being dumb has actually got some merit. I know it is not true but if McCain wins this election, then I may change my mind on that.

Benedict XVI · 29-10-2008 3:12pm

Ludo wrote: »

I agree...I honestly can't see Obama winning this no matter what the polls are saying. Maybe it is the fact I have no faith in US "democracy".
When I see people like Joe the bloody plumber or Sarah Palin being treated like some sort of expert in international or economic affairs, it makes me think the common conception of Americans being dumb has actually got some merit. I know it is not true but if McCain wins this election, then I may change my mind on that.

What exactly would be wrong with US "democracy" if McCain won ?
If he won would you think it was rigged?

If people decide to elect an older white candidate over a younger black one it does not mean that there is anything wrong with the system.

Ludo · 29-10-2008 3:28pm

Ah it is just that I cannot remember any election in my life time where there has been such a chasm between the two candidates.

One if offering inspiration, fresh ideas, a positive outlook, youthfulness with gravitas, intelligence, good policies, leadership, etc, etc, etc.

The other is offering the same old negative clap-trap, scare tactics, personal attacks, complete lack of management ability (his campaign sucks) and a continuation of the policies which have got us (the world..not just the US) in the current crap and is running a terrible campaign (or rather has lost control of his own campaign..see management skills), an ever-changing message/policies depending on what he thinks will get him a few votes, encouraging an extreme polarisation of the country, claiming the campaign would be more positive is he got his way about town hall meetings (wtf like....if you do it my way I'll behave. How old is he again...80 or 8?) etc, etc, etc,

The choice is so obvious. This election should be a landslide in any sane world.
And to think I actually wanted McCain to win this last year. Of course I will be accused of being brain-washed by Obama or worshipping his ass or something by people that disagree with what I say here but I can honestly say I have never seen such a clear-cut obvious choice in an election.

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar · 29-10-2008 3:29pm

what good policies and fresh ideas of obamas do you like?

The Mad Hatter · 29-10-2008 3:31pm

Benedict XVI wrote: »

What exactly would be wrong with US "democracy" if McCain won ?
If he won would you think it was rigged?

If people decide to elect an older white candidate over a younger black one it does not mean that there is anything wrong with the system.

I don't think he was talking about rigging - it's clear enough that Sarah Palin shouldn't be let near any position of power, but whether the majority of American voters can see this remains to be seen.

Benedict XVI · 29-10-2008 3:37pm

The Mad Hatter wrote: »

it's clear enough that Sarah Palin shouldn't be let near any position of power.

You are stating the above as if it some sort of fact, or is it your opinion ?

It is the opinion of the voting public of Alaska that she should be in a position of power, and that's a fact.

Steviemak · 29-10-2008 4:07pm

Benedict XVI wrote: »

4. The Bradley effect – Some white voters may tell the pollsters that they will vote for Obama, but when they go into that booth they may select McCain.

The Bradley effect was on exit polls not pre election polls. Its completely different.

The Mad Hatter · 29-10-2008 4:32pm

Benedict XVI wrote: »

You are stating the above as if it some sort of fact, or is it your opinion.

I'm not sure by what criteria a person who is anti-science, anti-women's rights, who seems to think that ignorance is a virtue and who doesn't even seem to know the responsibilities of the job she's applying for could be in any way qualified for any position of power.

It is the opinion of the voting public of Alaska that she should be in a position of power, and that's a fact.

No, that she was a better option than the other person who ran for governor, that's all. Opinion seems to be generally swinging against her now, even in Alaska.

cornbb · 29-10-2008 4:34pm

Benedict XVI wrote: »

4. The Bradley effect – Some white voters may tell the pollsters that they will vote for Obama, but when they go into that booth they may select McCain.

Reputable polling bodies have said the likelihood of this occurring again is slim as modern polling techniques are apparently far more accurate at detecting such phenomena.

There has even been speculation of a "reverse" Bradley effect, whereby Republicans tell pollsters they won't vote for Obama but then secretly do so in the polling booth:

Mr Wilder remains optimistic about Mr Obama's chances for a number of reasons.

"I do think there is going to be a so-called 'reverse Bradley effect' because I think there are some Republicans who won't openly say they are going to vote for Barack Obama, but will," he said.

The 77-year-old puts that down in part to discontent with Republican President George W Bush, with polls suggesting that up to 90% of registered voters believe the country is on the wrong track.

Recent elections do seem to indicate that the Bradley effect could have gone into reverse.

Research by psychologist Anthony Greenwald and political scientist Bethany Albertson of the University of Washington, suggests Mr Obama benefited from a reverse Bradley effect in 12 states during the primary elections, while the Bradley effect itself was noticeable in only three.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7675551.stm

Mordeth wrote: »

what good policies and fresh ideas of obamas do you like?

His willingness to engage "rogue states" such as Iran in dialogue, as opposed to the Republican "shoot first ask questions later" MO, is highly attractive. He is also committed to net neutrality, a minor issue in the grand scheme of things, but an important one for us geeks. Those are just 2 I can think of. I'm not a fan of all of his policies (such as a zionist-leaning commitment to Israel) but on the whole his policies and his attitude in general are a breath of fresh air. Not to mention the fact that he has obviously mobilised many millions of Americans to come out and say that they do not like the direction the country has been going in for the last 8 years.

Manic Moran · 29-10-2008 5:25pm

I'm not a fan of all of his policies (such as a zionist-leaning commitment to Israel)

Palestinians seem to think he's sympathetic to them.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-obamamideast10apr10,0,1780231,full.story

Now the question is ‘Am I the only one who thinks McCain has a chance to win’

A chance? Sure he's got a chance. I'm not rushing to the bookie to put money on him though.

I agree...I honestly can't see Obama winning this no matter what the polls are saying. Maybe it is the fact I have no faith in US "democracy".

I find it interesting that most McCain supporters have basically accepted the likelihood of Obama winning, but there is a fairly common belief amongst Obama supporters that he won't. If Republicans are the people rigging the vote, shouldn't the McCain camp be confident?

NTM

axer · 29-10-2008 5:34pm

cornbb wrote: »

I'm not a fan of all of his policies (such as a zionist-leaning commitment to Israel) but on the whole his policies and his attitude in general are a breath of fresh air. Not to mention the fact that he has obviously mobilised many millions of Americans to come out and say that they do not like the direction the country has been going in for the last 8 years.

He has no choice but to support israel or he will not get elected. That does not mean that he won't listen and meet with palestinian leaders since I think he has a level head on him.

It is a good thing that Obama will not back down from campaigning hard until the last ballot is cast - he knows that it is possible he could still lose this election no matter what the polls say.

cornbb · 29-10-2008 5:42pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

Palestinians seem to think he's sympathetic to them.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-obamamideast10apr10,0,1780231,full.story

Its a funny situation really, his muslim background would naturally cause him to have huge support from muslim communities, so I suspect his vocal support for Israel may be an attempt to woo both camps (and more importantly appease American moderates), somehow. Maybe its working?

I find it interesting that most McCain supporters have basically accepted the likelihood of Obama winning, but there is a fairly common belief amongst Obama supporters that he won't. If Republicans are the people rigging the vote, shouldn't the McCain camp be confident?

That is your interpretation of the scenario. My interpretation would be that McCain is still pulling out all the stops to win and is putting on a strong air of confidence (albeit in a poor position to do so, given a lack of finance and campaign in-fighting) and that Obama supporters do believe he will win but are on their guard, frightened of either:
- Poor voter turnout
- A prolonged and dirty/messy legal battle following the election, á la 2000. There is a fear among black voters, in particular, that the prospect of Obama winning is too good to be true, and that the status quo will do anything it takes to keep him out of office. Call it paranoia, but I share the belief that that is the only potentially realistic and serious obstacle to an Obama presidency.

Regardless of who might do any voter rigging, the fact that people are raising such serious fears about election day speaks volumes about weaknesses in the US election system. Talk of vote rigging/illegal voter registration would be unthinkable in an Irish general election.

Edit:

axer wrote:

He has no choice but to support israel or he will not get elected. That does not mean that he won't listen and meet with palestinian leaders since I think he has a level head on him.

It is a good thing that Obama will not back down from campaigning hard until the last ballot is cast - he knows that it is possible he could still lose this election no matter what the polls say.

Completely agree

Manic Moran · 30-10-2008 7:58pm

Interesting results from Rasmussen today.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mccain_trusted_more_on_taxes_and_economy

McCain also has gained ground as the candidate to trust on economic issues. Forty-eight percent (48%) now trust the Republican hopeful more than the Democrat while 47% hold the opposite view. This is the first time McCain has led on the issue that has hurt his campaign since September 17. One month ago, Obama held a nine-point advantage when it came to economic issues.

NTM

axer · 30-10-2008 8:13pm

Manic Moran wrote: »

Interesting results from Rasmussen today.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mccain_trusted_more_on_taxes_and_economy

NTM

No surprise there that the GOP like to believe McCain is doing well (or at least give that impression).

Manic Moran · 30-10-2008 9:07pm

I'm sure they would, but Rasmussen have a reputation for being pretty accurate over the years.

NTM

Mr.Micro · 30-10-2008 9:15pm

axer wrote: »

No surprise there that the GOP like to believe McCain is doing well (or at least give that impression).

McCain is no longer seen as McCain but McCain & Palin, that's one of his problems and giving him a vote will also be for Palin. Undecided voters or borderline voters will be put off IMO, so has Rasmussen factored in that? McCain has played the biggest political own goal in years.

eoinbn · 31-10-2008 12:12am

Mr.Micro wrote: »

McCain is no longer seen as McCain but McCain & Palin, that's one of his problems and giving him a vote will also be for Palin. Undecided voters or borderline voters will be put off IMO, so has Rasmussen factored in that? McCain has played the biggest political own goal in years.

Undecided voters will swing for McCain, no doubt. If voters haven't bought into Obama by now they probably won't. This come be seen in the primaries where undecided voters always broke for Clinton. This election is not over.

Scourge 1980 · 31-10-2008 12:17am

I agree. Liberal as the Americans are in the north. In the south, they're back in the fifties, and these are the people who vote in much larger numbers come election day.:rolleyes:

mike65 · 31-10-2008 12:43am

Are the Hillaryites on-board for Obama?

Mike

JohnMc1 · 31-10-2008 1:10am

Ludo wrote: »

One if offering inspiration, fresh ideas, a positive outlook, youthfulness with gravitas, intelligence, good policies, leadership, etc, etc, etc.

Obama has only been Senator for 4 years. 2 years wasted campaning. I don't care what kind of speech he makes he shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the White House. Plus his questionable association in the past should make any intelligent person question voting for him.

The other is offering the same old negative clap-trap, scare tactics, personal attacks, complete lack of management ability (his campaign sucks) and a continuation of the policies which have got us (the world..not just the US) in the current crap and is running a terrible campaign (or rather has lost control of his own campaign..see management skills), an ever-changing message/policies depending on what he thinks will get him a few votes, encouraging an extreme polarisation of the country, claiming the campaign would be more positive is he got his way about town hall meetings (wtf like....if you do it my way I'll behave. How old is he again...80 or 8?) etc, etc, etc,

Oh come now. Democrats don't use those tactics? And seriously how does a party thats running 2/3 of the US Govt and blocked Pres. Bush from trying to step in and fix Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both in 2003 and 2005 escape blame for this. A person would have to be a complete moron to think the Dems don't deserve any blame.

The choice is so obvious. This election should be a landslide in any sane world.

Yeah McCain would win by a landslide because the token Black wouldn't even be considered a serious candidate

eoinbn · 31-10-2008 1:34am

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Oh come now. Democrats don't use those tactics? And seriously how does a party thats running 2/3 of the US Govt and blocked Pres. Bush from trying to step in and fix Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both in 2003 and 2005 escape blame for this. A person would have to be a complete moron to think the Dems don't deserve any blame.

The republicans controlled both the senate and the congress until the start of 2007.

brianthebard · 31-10-2008 1:43am

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Oh come now. Democrats don't use those tactics? And seriously how does a party thats running 2/3 of the US Govt and blocked Pres. Bush from trying to step in and fix Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both in 2003 and 2005 escape blame for this. A person would have to be a complete moron to think the Dems don't deserve any blame.

the Republicans had control of 3/3 of the US govt in 2003 and 2005. How did the Democrats block Pres. Bush?

mike65 wrote: »

Are the Hillaryites on-board for Obama?

Mike

Bill Clinton has formally endorsed Obama (and both Clintons have been campaigning for him) so I would say yes. there are a small group who vote on personality and don't have a clue but I think the media likes to overemphasis the size of that group.

Ponster · 31-10-2008 10:10am

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Plus his questionable association in the past should make any intelligent person question voting for him.

Which one is it this time?

Mitch Connor · 31-10-2008 10:13am

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Obama has only been Senator for 4 years. 2 years wasted campaning. I don't care what kind of speech he makes he shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the White House. Plus his questionable association in the past should make any intelligent person question voting for him.

How long has Palin been a Senator for?

Benedict XVI · 31-10-2008 10:38am

Tauren wrote: »

How long has Palin been a Senator for?

She has never been a senator, she is currently Governor of Alaska.

And she is not running for president either

Mitch Connor · 31-10-2008 10:42am

Benedict XVI wrote: »

She has never been a senator, she is currently Governor of Alaska.

And she is not running for president either

Nope - she is running for VP with a 72 year old. Chances of her having to step in should something happen to McCain are not insignificant.

Hobbes · 31-10-2008 10:57am

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Yeah McCain would win by a landslide because the token Black wouldn't even be considered a serious candidate

I am not sure what reality you are viewing but it isn't this one. All polls out there have put Obama to win. McCain doesn't isn't even close to the points required to win.

Source:
http://www.pollster.com/
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

As I understand it McCain has to win Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado to even remain in the game.

As for Palin. She is a joke. Trying to portray her as anything else is laughable. I mean she even did a campaign recently in Nevada and the democratic turnout actually increased.

http://washingtonindependent.com/15662/democratic-surge-in-nevada

Which one is it this time?

I believe Colbert broke the story that Obamas campaign was started in the Chupacabras lair.

oscarBravo · 31-10-2008 11:38am

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Yeah McCain would win by a landslide because the token Black wouldn't even be considered a serious candidate

I'm not even going to play the I'm-sure-that-wasn't-intended-as-a-racist-remark game this time. If McCain supporters have to fall back on this tired canard at this late stage, it shows how truly desperate they've become.

Ludo · 31-10-2008 11:40am

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Obama has only been Senator for 4 years. 2 years wasted campaning. I don't care what kind of speech he makes he shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the White House. Plus his questionable association in the past should make any intelligent person question voting for him.

EVERY politician has associations which are questionable. That includes McCain who has quite a few also. And as for wasting his time campaigning...why is that exactly? He has energised the election and been a hugely positive influence on it. If he wins, will it still have been a waste of time? If he loses, he will still have raised the level of intelligent thought in politics and that can't be a bad thing and given a whole new generation an interest in politics and an interest in the future of the country and world.

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Oh come now. Democrats don't use those tactics? And seriously how does a party thats running 2/3 of the US Govt and blocked Pres. Bush from trying to step in and fix Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both in 2003 and 2005 escape blame for this. A person would have to be a complete moron to think the Dems don't deserve any blame.

erm....do you realise the reps were in control of the house and senate during the timeframe you refer to? You may want to read up a bit and get some facts straight next time if you want to try this argument.

JohnMc1 wrote: »

Yeah McCain would win by a landslide because the token Black wouldn't even be considered a serious candidate

This must rank up there as one of the silliest comments I have ever seen on boards.ie...token black...wtf like? What has black got to do with anything?

McCain to win election

Comments