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Dare I say it...?

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  • 21-03-2008 2:48am
    #1
    Collie D
    Registered Users Posts: 11,373 ✭✭✭✭


    Probably a lot of people on here who won't back this out of principle. Rangers 1/2 to win SPL with PP seems a tad generous to me. Granted they still have to play Celtic three times but they are three points clear with a game in hand and only eleven to play. Old Firm games are usually tight affairs and Celtic would have to win two of the three to draw level. I won't be lumping on myself but thought one or two of you may be interested.


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    #2
    Healio
    Registered Users Posts: 2,825 ✭✭✭Healio


    Fcuk the rest of them, if they'd rather go hungry than back the huns (hoons?? - kill me later) then let them be, at 1/2 you'd have to get stuck in!!


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    #3
    LuckyCharms
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭LuckyCharms


    Collie D wrote: »
    Probably a lot of people on here who won't back this out of principle. Rangers 1/2 to win SPL with PP seems a tad generous to me. Granted they still have to play Celtic three times but they are three points clear with a game in hand and only eleven to play. Old Firm games are usually tight affairs and Celtic would have to win two of the three to draw level. I won't be lumping on myself but thought one or two of you may be interested.

    It is generous indeed but sadly i could never bring myself to bet against Celtic or Manchester United no matter how good the odds :(


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    #4
    Healio
    Registered Users Posts: 2,825 ✭✭✭Healio


    LuckyCharms wrote: »
    It is generous indeed but sadly i could never bring myself to bet against Celtic or Manchester United no matter how good the odds :(

    To a degree I'd agree, but I have to ask the question what have Celtic done for YOU PERSONALLY?? that means you wont bet against them??


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    #5
    raheny red
    Registered Users Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭raheny red


    Healio wrote: »
    To a degree I'd agree, but I have to ask the question what have Celtic done for YOU PERSONALLY?? that means you wont bet against them??

    Yeah exactly, can't never understand that logic myself. Some of my biggest profit has from backing against Shels.


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    #6
    Bubs101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,478 ✭✭✭Bubs101


    Personally I hate Celtic but Rangers still have their finger in a lot of pies. They're good odds but not for me personally


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    #7
    Mellor
    Registered Users Posts: 39,385 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    LuckyCharms wrote: »
    It is generous indeed but sadly i could never bring myself to bet against Celtic or Manchester United no matter how good the odds :(
    I put odds before teams.
    I have no problem backing against any team, if I believe that doing so is +EV
    Alot of people don't do this, then again most people don't understand EV


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    #8
    Collie D
    Registered Users Posts: 11,373 ✭✭✭✭Collie D


    Mellor wrote: »
    Alot of people don't do this, then again most people don't understand EV

    You can include me in that :) What's EV when it's at home?


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    #9
    opr
    Registered Users Posts: 8,267 ✭✭✭opr


    Collie D wrote: »
    You can include me in that :) What's EV when it's at home?

    EV is the expected value of something.

    Basically lets say you think the 1/2 shot you posted is actually a 1/4 shot and priced wrong. You back it and it loses. This really shouldn't matter to you as the bet over time should be +EV. In the long run if you could keep placing this bet it should show a longterm profit.

    That why people who are sucessful at gambling are generally very selective and bet infrequently. The market is almost always right in relation to pricing which means the chances of the bet winning are slightly lower than the price offered meaning its -EV. A sucessfull gambler spots prices which he think are wrong and bets accordingly. If he is right he should make a profit overtime.

    Opr


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    #10
    Collie D
    Registered Users Posts: 11,373 ✭✭✭✭Collie D


    opr wrote: »
    EV is the expected value of something.

    Basically lets say you think the 1/2 shot you posted is actually a 1/4 shot and priced wrong. You back it and it loses. This really shouldn't matter to you as the bet over time should be +EV. In the long run if you could keep placing this bet it should show a longterm profit.

    That why people who are sucessful at gambling are generally very selective and bet infrequently. The market is almost always right in relation to pricing which means the chances of the bet winning are slightly lower than the price offered meaning its -EV. A sucessfull gambler spots prices which he think are wrong and bets accordingly. If he is right he should make a profit overtime.

    Opr

    Cheers, I understood the theory, just not the term :)


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