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But they have to win!

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  • 26-03-2008 12:33am
    #1
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,519 ✭✭✭✭


    We are coming to that stage in the UK football season where the above quote gets used a lot. I think it was Bruce Millington of the Racing Post who came up with the statistics for this argument, disproving it.

    He came to the conclusion that teams are not more likely to win because they must to avoid relegation or gain promotion while their opponents have nothing to play for if they are safe in mid-table.

    Indeed over a ten season period he found those chasing promotion in the 2nd and 3rd tier of English football performed worse when it came to the crunch at the end of season, putting the reason down as pressure and/or nerves.

    I'm going to try price up teams based on their performances rather than what their league position is in these last few weeks. I think there is definitely value to be found as bookies may tip their odds in favour of the "must win" team knowing the money will go on them.

    Hopefully i'm not wrong!


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    #2
    Keano
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 12,802 Mod ✭✭✭✭Keano


    It really is that time of the year anything can happen. Teams at the bottom of their repspective leagues playing every game like a cup final! Those at the top scraping 1-0 wins!


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    #3
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,455 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    dsmythy wrote: »
    We are coming to that stage in the UK football season where the above quote gets used a lot. I think it was Bruce Millington of the Racing Post who came up with the statistics for this argument, disproving it.

    He came to the conclusion that teams are not more likely to win because they must to avoid relegation or gain promotion while their opponents have nothing to play for if they are safe in mid-table.

    Indeed over a ten season period he found those chasing promotion in the 2nd and 3rd tier of English football performed worse when it came to the crunch at the end of season, putting the reason down as pressure and/or nerves.

    I had a shot at this in the last few weeks of last season, and it went poorly !!
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055084746

    I was just thinking at the weekend that its close to that time of year again to have another bash.


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    #4
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 4,030 ✭✭✭jacool


    The logic here was that a team at the bottom needing a win to stay up should win - the reality is that they are at the bottom because they have been poor all season, so ideally you should get a better price on their opponents, and this would represent value for your money.
    Look at the bottom of each division now, and you will see that in 2 months time they will look more-or-less the same. The way to cash in in when they are playing the mid-table teams with 'nothing-to-play-for". Usually there will be players at these clubs who are essentially playing for their careers and they won't down tools that easily. If this were to happen anywhere I would expect it in the Premier League, where players' wages are massive and mortgage paying isn't usually such a pressing concern ! You could conceivably see your Villas, West Hams and Man Citys relax when neither Europe nor relegation are realities.


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    #5
    Collie D
    Registered Users Posts: 11,373 ✭✭✭✭Collie D


    Just a note on this before people go backing Wigan to beat Man Utd on the last day. Last season's Premiership final day - a whopping seven draws. The other three results were a home win (can't remember who but it was a straightforward prediction on form), West Ham beating United at OT (a result the Hammers needed in a dead rubber for United) and Watford beating Reading (Watford already relegated and Reading needing a win for a Euro place).


    I only remember because we were doing a pools in work with one point for a home win, two for an away and three for a draw. I was two points clear going into final day and picked up the massive total of one point whereas the guy in last place picked ten draws, earning himself 21 points, the title and a ****load of cash.


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