Summer was on the way.....

Supercell

Thats a real April chart alright, could be good

Paddy.1

Weathercheck wrote: »

Thursday looks like it could hit 18c and lots of sunshine.

It the cloud breaks..;)

ECMWF latest run a peach:



Some surface warming could trigger some pretty hefty inland showers if that chart was to come off something like that. From an "imby" point of view, The west looks nice and dry which is much deserved at this stage.

I think ECMWF need to be commended on it's insistance about this northern bloking, they have had it now for over well over a week, and have yet to back down.

nacho libre

I hope this comes off to teach all the people who want warm and sunny weather a lesson.:p

Remember that ancient proverb which says: He who welcomes Summer in April, and early May, will endure a crappy Summer.

ninebeanrows

Maxima Thursday




Maxima Sunday

rc28

Ugh, sorry but I don't understand how anyone could look forward to miserable wet slush in April:D

Danno

This has April 1995 written all over it. In fact I remember one day around the start of April 95 it was something like 17 or 19c at 12 noon and by 6pm there was hail and snow showers.

Scubadevils

Nah, feck it... I want my warm weather now. The deck needs to be varnished and grass is in serious need of a cutting so bring on spring like weather please :pac:

Villain

TV3 forecast just mentioned Snow on high ground after the weekend.

I just started my blocks for footings today and had to pump 9"' of water away!!! Lets hope we don't get much rain like last night, the rain that fell was unreal.

Snowbie

The chemists have got wind of the forth coming cold snap and have again stocked up on Prozac.

arctictree

Looks like some nasty weather in store for the weekend according to the latest GFS.

Sun 6z is showing temps below 0 with lots of precip around.

Villain

How would Leinster (carlow) be affected if those charts were to come off, trying to see what I need to do for the weekend in regards to my house building.

Thanks

mike65

Forget the weekend lets enjoy the next 3 days!

Mike.

darkman2

I think there certainly will be snow in the Northern half of the country at least. Sunday in particular will be exceptionally cold for the time of year, as will Monday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png



Be interesting to watch how this developes - it looks like some wll have a tricky journey to work on Monday.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

darkman2

Villain wrote: »

How would Leinster (carlow) be affected if those charts were to come off, trying to see what I need to do for the weekend in regards to my house building.

Thanks

Hard to say. Still too far out.

revr

18z still shows snow for Northern half of Ireland Sat - Monday Southern half Sunday afternoon - Mon.

I could honestly see this being upgraded as we bound to get the heavy stuff this time with the NWW flow.

Ya know something like this is what will catch people out lol - Cry wolf to many times no-one listens they dont believe it will happen and it ends up catching everyone out

arctictree

UKMO have issued a weather warning for most of the UK (including wales and NI) for snow on Sunday:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=5

Quote:

"There is a moderate risk of a severe event affecting parts of N Ireland, N Wales, Scotland and NE and E England. Cold northerly winds are expected to bring snow showers which could give temporary, slight accumulations at lower levels. On higher ground accumulations of 2-5 cm, and locally as much as 10 cm in N Scotland, are likely. Drifting is also possible in the strong winds over the higher ground in the North."

A

rc28

Has this been downgraded yet? Meteireann only mention some wintry showers on Sunday.

darkman2

No there will be sleet and snow showers Sunday, Sunday night, Monday.


In fact Sunday night looks very interesting with a feature running down the Irish sea which would bring alot of snowfall to the North and East in particular.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn904.png

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-84.png?12

Snowbie

Thats very marginal for lower elevations DM.
I prefare this one instead. A trough moving down from the north with -10 850s over the east early sunday morning. Thing is no convection to bump this up and probably very little precip but temps be perfect if it where to come off for some snow.

However some single cell CBs be on display over the weekend with significant temp drops in showers during the daylit hours.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote: »

Thats very marginal for lower elevations DM.
I prefare this one instead. A trough moving down from the north with -10 850s over the east early sunday morning. Thing is no convection to bump this up and probably very little precip but temps be perfect if it where to come off for some snow.

However some single cell CBs be on display over the weekend with significant temp drops in showers during the daylit hours.

Its always marginal in this part of the world. One thing is for sure though - the North is going to get battered by frequent snow showers esspecially at night. Im yet to be convinced whether outside Sunday and Sunday night we have much of chance anyway with lack of precipitation. Another nowcast coming I think.

JanuarySnowstor

Yes an interesting Sunday coming up
Could be snowfall for quite a few as the hot sun should spark some massive instability
I think the gfs ppn charts are way off the mark (underestimated)
Winter's final hooray and one must admit after the Spring we've had the Winter / Spring '08 actually wasn't that mild at all
Temps of 18C here in Cork today. It will be a massive shock to some come Sunday:D

darkman2

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes an interesting Sunday coming up
Could be snowfall for quite a few as the hot sun should spark some massive instability
I think the gfs ppn charts are way off the mark (underestimated)
Winter's final hooray and one must admit after the Spring we've had the Winter / Spring '08 actually wasn't that mild at all
Temps of 18C here in Cork today. It will be a massive shock to some come Sunday:D

Under the April showers regime, yes, most will see snow at some point. The critical thing though is getting it at night - the Northern part of the country always favourite - but showers could move down the West aswell. With very low temperatures any precip at night will be snow and it will readily stick.

Supercell

The strength of the sun will ensure the showers are widespread, at least during daylight hours.
At night though, temps will turn favourable but most precip is likely to retreat north and west as usual.
I'd say we all could see some falling snow, and maybe a trip up the mountains (above 500 metres or so) might give some tempory lying snow during daylight hours..
I'll be taking the camera in the car with me in the way to work on Monday morning for sure!

revr

BBC weather reports all day showed Sunday with some sort of trough sittin over Ulster <looked like a complete whiteout>:D and snow getting well over the border sinking south:D

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z is colder again for Sunday
Now looking likely that a spell of snow will move South over Ireland on Sunday
It could be a huge shock to many:)

darkman2

Funny I was reading NW and what the Brits are saying - 'blizzards in the East' etc. Unfortunately for them they are close to the center of the depession which is not good. The warm sector may not appear just yet but it will and they will be the first and only ones effected.


For us - snow showers widesread during the day. Possibility of prolonged snow associated with frontal system Monday morning/day or night. Probrably occluded with warm sector over Britain:p

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2.gif

Thats very similar to january 1987 except for 2 vital areas.
Temps in artic scandinavia (the origin of the air) are currently above zero.

I was looking at a photograph yesterday of the frozen half snow covered river avoca in Arklow from January 1987.
That time the source of the air was the same as I say but artic Scandinavia would have been sub minus 20c.Lowland England and Scotland sub minus 8c maxima.
Big Big difference.

More 4ft drifts for Djouce maybe I feel but possibly this time with snow cover depending on precipitation extending to artictree and longfield.

Coastal cover in the East-forget about it even at night.Coastal snow falling at times -yes thats possible but I wouldn't be relying on it or getting hopes up as it could be cold rain/sleet/hail.

arctictree

Yes, these charts would make snow a certain in Dec/Jan/Feb but this time of the year, who knows what will happen.

I wonder is it more likely for these type of charts to occur outside of the winter months? Does the time of year influence the chart setup in this part of the world and was Jan '82 just a freak??!

Anyway, I love April. Possibility of 18c sunshine and also possibility of snow at night (well, up here anyway!).

A

er I was just outside and the sunshine is warm, the air is calm, birds are chirping. My doggy is lying on his back soaking up the sunshine

Its so hard to imagine snow

If it happens would it stick? What kind of temps are we talking for Sunday?

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

I wonder is it more likely for these type of charts to occur outside of the winter months? Does the time of year influence the chart setup in this part of the world and was Jan '82 just a freak??!

Jan '82 was a rare occurance but not an unrepeatable one.
I think global warming is overplayed a tad,as when you look at historic data , there have been decades of relative winter warmth before.
The 80's were one of the cold periods.There were several instances in the 1980's when weather fronts got caught up in cold enough easterlies.
That would be a fluke if it was one year but it went on most years from about 1977 to 1991.