April Temperature Forecast/Analysis.

Paddy.1

Sorry for opening this one a bit late. I have yet to do up April Means and all that but will have charts up later on. Longfield, Could you post this month's questions up here or pm me with them so I can kick April's forecast off. I will leave all folk to decide their answers up to the 3rd of April because of the delay. Will also do up a chart of all the "Winners" from the march thread later also.

Mothman

Overall mean April temperature for 12 stations (the usual 13 minus Claremorris) this decade.
2000 7.5C
01 8.2C
02 9.1C
03 10.0C
04 9.2C
05 8.8C
06 8.6C
07 11.1C

2007 stands out as the mean is more than one degree higher than next highest, which is 10.0C in 2003 and 1997.
2007 was the warmest on record at all stations bar Valentia.
2000 was coldest since 1989 and the coldest since the 60s is 5.9C in 1986

M.T. Cranium

I will say 9.4 which is probably too high, just like me.

Paddy.1

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I will say 9.4 which is probably too high, just like me.

The April 61-90 Overall Mean for the main 13 synoptic stations is 8.0°C.

So if anyone would like to have a shot at guessing how April 2008 will pan out with regards temperature, now is the time to 'give it a go'. Good luck to everyone who has a shot.

kindredspirit

I don't seem to be doing very well at this.:o

But here goes for April: 9.0°

nacho libre

I will say 8.7

The Temperature in Mullingar on the 23rd will be 16.1

Wind speed, in knots, will be 6.9 on the 25th

rc28

8.8c

Danno

Any other trivia or bonus points?

Weather BOFH

May as well clean this up a bit!

1) 8.2C
2) 18.6C
3) -2.4C
4) 17.3C
5) 5 Kts

gurramok

8.6C then

Max 15.4C on 23rd and Wind speed 7.4 on 25th

Paddy.1

Will give it a go myself, I thinking a fairly changable month that will bring some wide temp variations.

8.6c. slightly warmer than average.

Snowbie

Will think warm spring like sunshine will eventually take over in the second half of the month.

9.0c

squonk

8.7 for me

Supercell

Sorry Paddy, I kept meaning to do this.

Ok bonus questions are based around Punchestown National Hunt Festival this month, closest station I can see is Mullingar so here goes:-

On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?
On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?

Mothman

Longfield wrote: »

Sorry Paddy, I kept meaning to do this.

Ok bonus questions are based around Punchestown National Hunt Festival this month, closest station I can see is Mullingar so here goes:-

On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?
On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?

And to help (or not) folks with answers. Here are some stats

Yearly figures from Monthly Weather Bulletin and averages from Met Eireann website

Mean max and overall max temp in April at Mullingar.
1961-1990 11.8 22.6
2000 10.6 16.6
01 11.5 13.7
02 12.5 17.7
03 13.9 21.6
04 12.6 17.4
05 12.3 17.0
06 12.5 16.8
07 15.7 20.6

And mean wind speed at Mullingar in April (Kts)
1961-1990 8.5
2000 6.5
01 7.2
02 8.1
03 7.1
04 7.4
05 7.6
06 6.8
07 5.5

kindredspirit

Can't find an edit button on my post

so 23rd of April, 15°C

25th of April, 9 knots.

Trogdor

Just to confirm Lonfield,
Are we guessing the mean temp, max temp at any station and min temp at any station, and then the 2 bonus questions as well?



EDIT: And the overall Irish mean for April 08 up to midnight last night is 10.2C

Supercell

Yep in a nutshell

1) Monthly mean
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
4) On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?
5) On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?

Supercell

1) 10.1
2) 18.7
3) -2.1
4) 15.1
5) 6.9

Snowbie

1) Monthly mean 9.0c
2) 17.9c
3) -2.2
4) 17.1c
5) 4 knots

rc28

Missed the bonus questions so will now give my guesses;
1)8.8c
2)19.1c
3)-2.5c
4)16.5c
5)3 Knots

Paddy.1

1)8.6
2)18.2c
3)-3.1c
4)16.9c
5)19kn


Edit: Changed lowest min forcast from an optimistic 4.1 to -3.1.

Supercell

kindredspirit wrote: »

I don't seem to be doing very well at this.:o

But here goes for April: 9.0°

Not the only one, I wuz robbed!
Still a long way to got yet, plenty of time to move up the table.

kindredspirit

1) Monthly mean…………………..9.0°C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)……….20.0°C
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)……..minus -1.2°C
4) On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?…..15°C
5) On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?…….4.5 knots. (Ignore my earlier forecast, I wasn’t thinking)
__________________

DOCARCH

1) 9.2c
2) 20.8c
3) -2.3c
4) 15.2c
5) 13 knots

Mothman

trogdor wrote: »

Just to confirm Longfield,
Are we guessing the mean temp, max temp at any station and min temp at any station, and then the 2 bonus questions as well?

Didn't realise that, otherwise I would have given stats
Overall Max/min at Synoptic stations this decade

2000 18.7 -4.7
01 15.5 -2.0
02 19.5 -3.3
03 24.4 -4.0
04 18.1 -1.5
05 18.6 -1.6
06 17.4 -4.5
07 22.2 -1.7

Overall low from last 50 years or so -5.5C at Casement in 1998
Overall high is that 24.4C at Belmullet 2003, the highest temp of year at the station, and the highest since July 2000 and not bettered again till 24.5C on 4th Sept 2005

Trogdor

1) 7.9c
2) 18.5c
3) -4.1c
4) 13.6c
5) 7.2 knots
Thanks for all the stats Mothman:)

Mothman

I've worked it so that I'm not starting a new daily max min chart. Also I've added a 30 day running mean. Is too cluttered to include figures, but the 30 day mean went from 6.30C yesterday to 6.57C today.

ch750536

Yep in a nutshell

1) Monthly mean
8.6

2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
19.8

3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
-3.2

4) On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar?
15

5) On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar?
6.8

nacho libre

(1) Monthly mean
8.7

(2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
19.2

(3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
-3.9

(4) The Temperature in Mullingar on the 23rd will be 16.1

(5) Wind speed, in knots, will be 6.9 on the 25th

Danno

1) Monthly mean 8.5c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 22.3c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) -4.7c
4) On Gold Cup day (23rd) what will the Maximum Temperature be in Mullingar? 13.8c
5) On Champion Hurdle day (25th) what will the mean wind speed be in knots in Mullingar? 8kt

Hope I'm not too late lads. Busy at work. Thursday nights are late ones.