April Temperature Forecast/Analysis.

Supercell

Jaysus i didn't realise I was so far up warm!, La Nina conditions...cold April, warm summer..gonna be interesting.
Might want to adjust chart title though

Trogdor

Overall Irish Mean for April is up to 11.1C up to midnight last night which is 3.1C above normal. Longfield, you are actually a degree to cold:p. Setting up for a big fall.

Supercell

I'm confidant, April may start cold but the temperature should ramp up fast during the second half of the month normally.

Paddy.1

Longfield wrote: »

Jaysus i didn't realise I was so far up warm!, La Nina conditions...cold April, warm summer..gonna be interesting.
Might want to adjust chart title though

Careful!! La Nina has F** all to do with weather on this side of the world. Cold april does not necessarily mean warm summer..;)

Just noticed mistake, will tidy up later. And Danno, your in. I am happy that my own prediction is close to your own, given your record the last couple of months.

Danno

I was gonna go with 8.6c, but several people have it, so to be unique I called 8.5c. To be specific, I predict 8.56c!* - Don't ask me why I arrive at this figure. If I am right, I am going after the lotto numbers next!!!

I think that a warm spell in the last week will counter-act any cold gains made next week, thus my 22.3c - I also have a feeling that Valentia will capture this max of the month! :eek:

* Not my official prediction because 8.5c covers the range of 8.45c to 8.54c.

Paddy.1

OK, very final updated April 08 mean forecast chart:



Once again, thanks to everyone who gave it a shot, and the best of luck to all!!.

Just thought I would post up this chart again for the 1st of April 1917, the coldest April of the 20th century:



Not that it is anything remotely like the current set up or anything..:cool:

Paddy.1

Mothman mentioned the other day that April 1986 was the coldest April in recent memory. Indeed it was. Here is the trend chart of the daily means of that month, with the 61-90 average included for comparrison:



The overall mean finished off at 6.2c, which is almost 2.0c below average.

Extracts from Met Eireann's summary:

"April 1986 was the coldest since the foundation of the State in 1922. Although the month ended on a fairly warm note and sunny note, during the month temperatures were more like a typical late February or early March than an average April.

"The problem was that winds from the north, northwest and northeast were more frequent than usual for this time of year, and kept both daytime and nightime temperatures well below normal. These northerly winds also made the northern half of the country a much wetter place during April than the southern half.

"Hail showers were fairly frequent while snow and sleet fell on a number of days during the first half of the month. There were thunderstorms on the 22nd."

Part of the very cold year of 1986, the following summer turned out to be quite cool also, but with plenty of thunderstorms!!:)

Supercell

Nice research Paddy, I remember it well and wondered if the next Ice Age was coming ...

It didnt and I'm a AGW fan these days as seems to be most here with only one person predicting below the average..

M.T. Cranium

Already mentioned the wild guess of 9.4 C for the month, should pass that on the way down later today. Will you see it again? Possibly. In May. Or June.

Highest of month, 19.8 C

Lowest of month, -5.2 C

High at Mullingar on 23rd about 16.8 C

Average wind speed on 25th about 10.5 knots

_______________________________________________

NOTE: Due to cosmic confusion, winter is now spring, spring is now winter, summer is now autumn, and autumn is more autumn.

Mothman

Uploading graphs to new page.

Paddy.1

Overall mean up to midnight 7th equates to 8.2°C. Coolest in the North-Eastern half of the country.

Mean rainfall this April up to and including the 7th stands at 8.2mm, which is 14.1% of normal. Wettest in the West and North at this point.

Info courtesy of Met Eireann

Weather BOFH

Thanks for all the stats Paddy and Mothman, now if only it would stay at 8.2C for the rest of the month

Paddy.1

Some Overall Means from Aprils past:



A moody month.

Danno

Funny how 1998 was the warmest year on record and out of the Aprils you chose to sample it was the coldest one of them!!!

Paddy.1

There is a lot of data missing today from stations around the country. From the information that is available, and with some assumptions, the overall mean is approximatley 7.9c. Now below average, and in line with Trodgar's guess. The first time this month that the deviation has fallen below average at -0.2c.

Brief reminder of predictions:

Trogdor

Paddy.1 wrote: »

There is a lot of data missing today from stations around the country. From the information that is available, and with some assumptions, the overall mean is approximatley 7.9c. Now below average, and in line with Trodgor's guess. The first time this month that the deviation has fallen below average at -0.2c.

Brief reminder of predictions:

A lot of data missing again, but mean is probably around 7.7C

Mothman

With Clones, Kilkenny, Rosslare closed, we're kind starting from scratch again.

Of the so called replacements,
Ballyhaise, Oak Park, Johnstown Castle, only the latter features in the Monthly Weather Bulletins. I assume the first 2 will be added in January issue. I've just received the December copy.

Mothman

Graphs updated at top of page.

Clones, Kilkenny and Rosslare removed from rain graphs.

Ulster is now represented by Malin Head alone.

The max/min graph is now from 14 stations. I'll amend the legend.

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

Graphs updated at top of page.

Clones, Kilkenny and Rosslare removed from rain graphs.

.

MM. if we cannot use data from these stations anymore, is there long term averages for the competition available for Johnstown Castle/Oak Park and the other one near Clones that we can use in substitute for the closing of these stations? If not, I think we will have to assume the averages from the original stations in relation to new data. On another note, there is now huge gaps geographically on data even with the competition, Mildlands and southeast, as well as the west, now severely unrepresented.

Mothman

I have Johnstown temp and rain means and rain means for Oak Park and Ballyhaise.
Oak park opened 1967 and Ballyhaise in 1932
I'd be hopeful that Met Eireann will upload them into the monthly section, though may take weeks rather than days.

I'll upload a table with the data I have sometime.

Paddy.1

Cheers MM, that would be great. I think from will have to use the 71-00 mean from next month onwards to corrospound with new data. I have Claremorris data here with me from 1996 onwards, so that is sorted. The others we will have average out from the whatever time their data became publically available. (I wish we were being paid for this!!):pac:

Paddy.1

OK folks. Have just deleted 3 very importants stations and their values from charts. Luckily, the 61-90 Overall Mean for April from now just 10 stations remains the same at 8.0c. The deletion only caused a rise of 0.02c. However, the overall mean on a daily basis is likely to be a bit higher than would be the case with the 13 stations due to lack of inland data. Will post up new charts later on with updated values.

Once daily means become a regular feature from new stations then they will be included, but up to then, we have only 10 stations to deal with. Handy in one way, but meteorologically, the charts that MM, Trodgar and myself post up are now just an appalling representation of the country's temperature distribution as a whole. The northwest is not considered at all, the north midlands wiped out, the south midlands wiped out, and the south-east is just a huge void. From a climatic point of view, I can't say I am pleased at all..

Once Oak Park and Ballyhaise, as well as Johnstown Castle are included on a daily basis, I am also going consider including Galway City data of which I will be able to access; and if can be arranged, to include data from some inland stations in the north-west. Will see what happens down the line.

For now, just 10 stations. Will post up new totals and charts later on.

Mothman

In the attachment are temp and rain data for Johnstown Castle, with Rosslare included as comparison. Despite only 10k between them, there are huge differences.

Also included rain data for Ballyhaise and Oak Park.

All data are 61-90 means despite Oak Park opening in 1967

Supercell

Big difference alright, obviously totally different topography, I assume Johnstown is much higher up than Rosslare?

Its a big shame, if it is much higher up than I'd assume its sunshine figures are a lot different if differences between our relative locations are anything to go by (Ashford is considerably sunnier than Annamoe).

Mothman

Annual sunshine totals
Rosslare 1583
Johnstown 1433

Not much difference in height.
Rosslare 26m
Johnstown 49m

The main difference is proximity to coast. Coastal margins receive more sunshine.

Supercell

Mothman wrote: »

Annual sunshine totals
Rosslare 1583
Johnstown 1433

Not much difference in height.
Rosslare 26m
Johnstown 49m

The main difference is proximity to coast. Coastal margins receive more sunshine.

Very surprised by that, the temperature profiles - lower in winter and summer (which should be warmer inland if at roughly similar elevation presumably) would seem to indicate elevation rather than anything else.
Any theories on the Johnston coldness?, I'm a little stumped.

Mothman

I don't think its so much Johntown's coldness as Rosslare's mild nights.

So often Rosslare is a few degrees warmer at night both summer and winter.

As I was getting the figures, I also was expecting Johnstown to be warmer during summer months.

I haven't critically looked at the mean maxes and mins for the 2 stations, but I may cast my eye over them for a month of each season.

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

In the attachment are temp and rain data for Johnstown Castle, with Rosslare included as comparison. Despite only 10k between them, there are huge differences.

Also included rain data for Ballyhaise and Oak Park.

All data are 61-90 means despite Oak Park opening in 1967

Cheers for data MM. Will get working on that over the next couple of weeks. It might be safe to assume the 61-90 mean for Clones for Ballyhaise. Will see how this unfolds..

Overall Mean today stands at 7.3c, with a deviation of -0.6c against the 61-90 mean.
All highs and lows this month.

For trend purposes yesterday's value stood at 7.4c. Should be interesting to see updated trend graph when posted.

Trogdor

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Cheers for data MM. Will get working on that over the next couple of weeks. It might be safe to assume the 61-90 mean for Clones for Ballyhaise. Will see how this unfolds..

Overall Mean today stands at 7.3c, with a deviation of -0.6c against the 61-90 mean.
All highs and lows this month.

For trend purposes yesterday's value stood at 7.4c. Should be interesting to see updated trend graph when posted.

I was just going with the average of the remaining 10 stations. That might actually be more accurate for the trend rather than putting in an average as that might alter the current trend whether it be higher or lower. Here is the trend I have

Paddy.1

So how does that work out T? I have 7.3c here for the 10 station mean on the 11th. I would have thought that it may have been possibly lower if the 13 stations still operated. I have guessed 7.2c for mullingar, which equals claremorris, so even this may be to high. Do you suggest we back date the April mean to the 10 stations from the first? I am willing to go along with this:)