April Temperature Forecast/Analysis.

M.T. Cranium

Looks to me like it will stay stuck in the low 7s for quite a while, cool air keeps flowing towards the British Isles from various directions, first north, then west, then back to north and finally east, but all rather cool. Despite the prediction I figure it will probably end up closer to 7.7 now for April.

Mothman

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Do you suggest we back date the April mean to the 10 stations from the first? I am willing to go along with this:)

I think so certainly

Graphs updated in message 41

The 30 day mean has been 6.6C for past 6 days.

Paddy.1

Overall Mean today down to 7.2°C, Mullingar data still missing so a figure of 6.9°C assumed. A deviation of -0.7°C now in force.

A month of wild temp swings so far.

Trogdor

Paddy.1 wrote: »

So how does that work out T? I have 7.3c here for the 10 station mean on the 11th. I would have thought that it may have been possibly lower if the 13 stations still operated. I have guessed 7.2c for mullingar, which equals Claremorris, so even this may be to high. Do you suggest we back date the April mean to the 10 stations from the first? I am willing to go along with this:)

For the 11th i assumed a value of 7.3C for Mullingar, i think that is what pushed the mean over to 7.4C, and yes i got rid of the first few days of data from Clones, Kilkenny and Rosslare.
I have todays mean at 7.3C as i did yesterday. Assuming a value of 7.1C for Mullingar, as I think it may be a bit higher than 6.9C, but with missing data for so many days we can't really know

Paddy.1

Yeah it's a pain with missing data. Mullingar data still missing. Mean today will be 7.2c regardless as there has been a slight overall drop, particularly with coastal stations.

Rainfall totals update cannot be updated until Mullingar data comes forth.:)

Mothman

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Yeah it's a pain with missing data. Mullingar data still missing. Mean today will be 7.2c regardless as there has been a slight overall drop, particularly with coastal stations.

Rainfall totals update cannot be updated until Mullingar data comes forth.:)

Mullingar total to 14th is 16.6mm

No idea on temperature

Mothman

Paddy.1 wrote: »

A month of wild temp swings so far.

I don't agree, the first 4 days were fairly consistant as have the last 6. The inbetween 4 days had a cold dip and so a considerable swing then

Paddy.1

Cheers for the information MM. Much obliged

Updated charts to have a quick look at just what the hell is going on with the mean:



East and north the coolest areas with Dublin's D.F.A now at -1.2c. Mullingar's value an estimate. May actually be cooler.

At 7.2c, the deviation is now -0.8c so far this month.


Updated Rainfall Graph:



West is wettest up to 14th, (what a shocker). Drought like in the east:D.

Mean rainfall is 23.1mm, which is 39% of normal. Measured against the first 2 weeks of April (50%), this month is proving to be slightly drier than normal to date.

Paddy.1

Overall Mean today, up to the 15th, at 7.2°C which is slightly below average, again, Mullingar data missing so estimation used. May be higher or lower that the 6.8 °C given, but overall mean value will remain in tact regardless.

Information respect of Met Eireann

Danno

Gosh, I havn't had even one day right so far this April. I demand a re-count!!!

Supercell

April is really looking 80's style!

My forecasts are busted totally and utterly unless we get a heatwave some time soon

Paddy.1

Supercell wrote: »

My forecasts are busted totally and utterly unless we get a heatwave some time soon

You still could be in with a chance if the models are to be believed for the last 3rd of April!!

Mean today remains unmoved at 7.2c. Data still missing from Mullingar, but this will not effect the mean total.

Paddy.1

Up to midnight 17th, overall mean remains at 7.2°C. Data from Cork Aiport and Mullingar unavailable, but mean remains solid with a minute drop today.

Deviation stands at 0.8°C below the 61-90 average up to this point.

Trogdor

Overall mean at 7.3C up to midnight on 20th.
Updated trend

Snowbie

My April unofficial avg is at 7.7c to date( will go up over the next few days)
This is 4.1c lower than avg of this time last year for April.

Danno

There is some difference between now and this time last year allright. Alot of people are thinking that this will lead to a better summer. My grandmother (85) does not think so as she remembers each summer ending with an "8" being rather poor.

Paddy.1

I wouldn't be surprised if she was right!! I actually don't mind if it is wet this summer as long as it is warm, not like last summer which was wet and cold, it was just like a usual winter except that the days were longer.

nacho libre

I wish it would warm up already. I 've just had a visit from another little intruder. He/she is reluctant to leave.

nacho libre

Danno wrote: »

There is some difference between now and this time last year allright. Alot of people are thinking that this will lead to a better summer. My grandmother (85) does not think so as she remembers each summer ending with an "8" being rather poor.

I was very young at that time but i do recall one particularly miserable summer, during the late eighties where we had an April quite simliar to this one.

Paddy.1

nacho libre wrote: »

I wish it would warm up already. I 've just had a visit from another little intruder. He/she is reluctant to leave.

A mousheen? or a rateen? I hate rats, found one in my stevenson screen last november:(. Didn't kill it though.

Snowbie

A tarantula* was hanging onto my thermo last year in fact April, covering the temp reading. We were at peace with each other and i went on my way....




*ok maybe not but it was big and had 8 legs. A unique Dublin arachnid.

Paddy.1

Overall mean today will stand at 7.6c despite missing data from Mullingar again.

Quick reminder of predictions for this month:



At this stage it looks like Numoniod or Trodgar have the highest chance of winning with April likely to finish off around average. However, early days yet!!:)

Mean rainfall total for the month of April so far stands roughly* at 30.5mm, which is 51.5% of normal.

*Mullingar figure an estimate, which I have down at 22mm.

Mothman

Mullingar now 28.1mm

Paddy.1

Mothman wrote: »

Mullingar now 28.1mm

Thanks as always MM:)

Mean rainfall on updated Mullingar value stands at 31.1mm, which is 52.5% of normal.

Paddy.1

Well part of the competion so far was what would be the highest temp at Mullingar on the 23rd (yester). Here are the final results!!!!

Highest temp yesterday at Mullingar was 16.4c



Rc28 takes top place, he was just 0.1c out, while that Mayo fella:p comes 2nd place with a forecast within 0.3c.

Congrats to both, and thanks to all who took the plunge. Highest wind speed in Mullingar tomorrow is also part of the game so fingers crossed all..:D

M.T. Cranium

That was pretty awesome by the whole group, probably better than the average 48h error on the GFS, from twenty days out.

I must admit that in my case I made the prediction before I bothered to look the place up on a map, but that's all part of the methodology.

rc28

What do I win?:D

Supercell

rc28 wrote: »

What do I win?:D

You win moving off bottom of the league

Mothman

Uploading graphs to new page.
30 day mean is now rising after being 6.6C from 7th to 17th. Now nearly 7.3C
Part of this rise is due to losing couple cold nights from mid March.
I'll get mean line on rain and sunshine graph soon. The mean sunshine is 152 hours, so looking like an above average month for sunshine.

Mothman

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Well part of the competion so far was what would be the highest temp at Mullingar on the 23rd (yester). Here are the final results!!!!

Highest temp yesterday at Mullingar was 16.4c

And what a difference a day makes.
Today 24th 13.8C
not so much for the previous day.
22nd 15.8C