April Temperature Forecast/Analysis.

Danno

DAMN! One day out. I had 13.8c.

Paddy.1

7.7c today, deviation still 0.3 below average, but this should balance out over the next few days.

Mothman's detailed graphs from previous page

Trogdor

Updated trend:

Paddy.1

Mean windspeed at Mullingar yesterday was 8.9 knots.

Here is how forecasts worked out:



As is the norm, Danno comes out on top, with his forecast just 0.9 kts out!!

Some advice, Don't come to me for a wind forecast, mine was over 10 kts out.

I should be ashamed, but I am secretly proud..:D

Congratulations again Danno.

Deep Easterly

Mullingar, Dublin Airport and Birr data missing today, but the mean is a safe 8.0c regardless. Deviation is bang on average at 0.0c.

Quick recap of forcasts:



Trogdor or Nemoniod seem to be in with the highest chance at this stage, but Danno chances can't be ruled out either..:)

MM, would you have updated Mullingar rainfall figure..? I should have taken it from the "yesterdays weather" page yester but it slipped my mind.:o
Cheers.

Thanks MM, On the strength updated Mullingar figures, mean rainfall stands at 36.7mm so far this April, which is 62% of normal. Turning out to be a drier than average at this stage.

Mothman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Previously "paddy.1". Changed it because I hated that name. I am now my prefered wind direction.. (though I'll never turn away a good ould Atlantic battering..)

MM, would you have updated Mullingar rainfall figure..? I should have taken it from the "yesterdays weather" page yester but it slipped my mind.:o
Cheers.

My figure for Mullingar is 33.2mm

Deep Easterly

Thought I would post up the Mean S.L.P chart for March 08. The westerly gradient over northwest Europe over the month suggests why much of the region stayed around average temperature wise for the month:



Over Ireland, M.S.L pressure values for March were around 4 to 8 mb below normal, which indicates a breezy, cool and wet month generally due to the west north west mean gradient flow.

Chart taken from the 'Climate Diagnostics Bulletin', courtasy of the CPC.
Archive of Bulletins dating back to August 07 can be found here

Deep Easterly

A reasonably solid 8.1c today, 0.1c above average. No data available from Dublin Airport or Mullingar but value should be ok.

Mean rainfal total up to midnight 27th stands at 42.5mm, which is 71.7% of the 61-90 norm. Driest at Birr & Dublin Airport stations.

Deep Easterly

Charts graphing Overall Mean up to midnight 28th:



Mullingar figure is an estimate. A drop of 0.1c at this station would bring down to mean to 8.0c, which is bang on average.

Station rainfall totals so far this April:



Mean total for April up to 28th is 47.0mm, which is 79.2% of normal. Inland areas of Connacht and North Leinster the wettest areas to date and reflecting the convective nature of much of the rainfall this month.

Deep Easterly

Down again to a nail biting 8.0c. This figure depends on Mullingar data which remains absent and which I have assumed a value of 7.7c. It may be higher or lower than this.

Regardless, the deviation remains at 0.1c above average.

Mean rainfall total for the month (up to midnight 29th) stands at 48.2mm, which is 81.2% of the 61-90 norm.

Quick reminder of the forecasts:



Nemoniod and Trogdor in a sweaty showdown today!! Don't fight dirty guys..:D

Mothman

Here are what I make out to be high and low temps of the month at synoptic stations. Met Eireann will issue their summary tomorrow.

To add to drama, the highest was 18.1C on 3rd at Kilkenny. Kilkenny closed shortly after, next highest 17.7C at Johnstown Castle also on 3rd, but neither are we usually using this station, 17.4C at Oak Park, next highest 17.2C at Rosslare on 3rd, and finally a station we usually use and still operating, 17.1C at Shannon on 25th.

The min is much more straight forward -2.1C at Casement on 6th.

Deep Easterly

I think we will go with the highest/lowest temp as per the summery MM, regardless of whether we are using them for the overall mean evaluation. Just keeps it simple and at hand.

A quick overview of the month with available data:

Final station means for the month of April 08:



Shannon/Mullingar are estimates, but final values from these station are unlikely to effect the final overall mean, which is a solid 8.1c, and just 0.1c above average. Congrats to Nemoniod, who's guess of 8.2c for this month is the closest to the final figure. Trogdor put up a good fight, and was only 0.2c out.

Final Station Rainfall Totals and overall mean, in order of absolute totals:



In terms of average distribution:



Absolute and average rainfall totals totals for the month indicate that the north-west and northern inland locations received the highest rainfall during April 08. Overall, it was slightly drier than average, with only Belmullet and Claremorris receiving higher than average totals this month.

Temperature chart in order of deviations:



Worked out to be an average month temp wise generally.

EDIT:4.52pm: Update on Station final values: Shannon 8.7c; Mullingar 7.6c

Mean & Deviation remain in tact despite slightly lower mean values from Mullingar and Shannon that was posted in chart above.

Will post up the updated 2008 trend chart later; indications already that we could be entering a warming phase again, but who knows, trends mean nothing.....;)

Mothman

Met Eireann monthly summary published.

Highest mean monthly temperature: 9.1°C at Valentia Observatory
Lowest mean monthly temperature: 6.8°C at Knock Airport
Highest temperature: 17.7°C at Johnstown Castle on 3rd
Lowest air temperature: -2.1°C at Casement Aerodrome on 6th
Lowest grass minimum temperature: -9.0°C at Birr on 15th

Summary will be available on Met Eireann website shortly

Trogdor

The final mean temp trend for April