Golf Betting

aarymark

els is an ew bet to nothing in the open certain to be placed he might even win

Degag

pp now paying 7.

Anyone notice a distinct lack of value due to tiger not playing? Prices have really closed in.

Kinda32

Here are my thoughts this week.. I am having a few each way bets on some decent prices..

Firstly Els has finished in the top 4 of the british open 6 outta last 8 years.. PP’s are paying 7 places so it’s almost giving away money with him at 14/1.. I'm not one for backing at those odds so a few longer odds shots for me..

Furyk has a strangely impressive record in the Open (when he makes the cut that is!! inc a 4th place at Birkdale when the open was last played there) even though you’d imagine his swing and style (high ball hitter that’s not suited for windy lynx courses) wouldn’t suit, but it seems to and at 22/1 it is decent each way value.. Again not for me as the price isn’t enough for my each way stake.. So to my selections...

The first of my selections is a 33/1 shot.. Miguel Angel Jimenez. I’ve never backed him before in a tourney yet he always plays well. He is solid as they come, and while his open record is nothing special, (he did finish just outside the top 10 last year) he has been in good form all year.. Spanish traditionally do well in this tourney and while he is no Sergio the price is more appetizing than the 9’s for Garcia..

I really think a young gun is going to go really close this year and I’ve picked out 3 that I will back this week..

The first is Andres Romero (40/1).. He should have won it last year and is in good nick this year, he should be there or thereabouts on the weekend, and last years experience will stand to him come Sunday afternoon.

Secondly, Hunter Mahan (50/1),has played three opens and made three cuts (some Americans just seem to like lynx courses) and he has a best finish of 6th last year.. This guy is good and I like his chances this week.. (Top American bet for him might be on the cards too, Sean O’Hair gets a mention in that category too!!!)

The last of my trio of young boys is Martin Kaymer (80/1). He is one of the top European young talent out there. If he was british he’d be 40/1 or lower for this tournament. The guy has what it takes to win a major and he is a big price this week.. I think he could put in a strong showing at very tasty odds..

Lastly for something in left field, I am going to have a small stake on Ben Curtis (150/1).. Since winning the Open in 2003 he missed the next three cuts but started to play well again last year and had a top ten in the Open.. He is one of the best putters when on form and you need to putt well in any major.. He is in and outta form this year, but hopefully will play well this week…

badbrian

I must be a glutton for punishment. I have also decided to back one Philip Walton to be outright leader at end of round 1. 500/1 ew 5 places. Qualified first in one of the (admittedly weak) qualifying comps before running second to POD at the Irish PGA. I mean it is 500/1...

KevIRL

Bruce V Paddy Power for the Open

Both are paying 7 places each way.

Bruce seem to be better for the odds though. From Kinda32's selections for example

Hunter Mahan - PP (45/1) Bruce (50/1)
Anders Romero - PP (40/1) Bruce (50/1)
Jiminez - PP (30/1) Bruce (33/1)
Martin Kaymer - PP (70/1) Bruce (66/1)

My own selections

Justin Rose - PP (28/1) Bruce (28/1)
Jim Furyk - PP (22/1) Bruce (25/1)
Retief Goosen - PP (33/1) Bruce (33/1)

WH BONNEY

Not a bet that would interest most people, but P Walton is 7/4 to make the cut, which in my opinion is a shocking price. So the flip side is that 2/5 to miss whilst very short is the value.

Walton has played very little on the European Tour in recent years and has not made a cut since 2005.

2008 0 - 0
2007 0 - 4
2006 0 - 3
2005 2 - 16
2004 4 - 13

A player with an outstanding CV whos best days are probably behind him.

Torres_is_God

I've just been in Lee Rhodes bookies and they tell me that they are paying 7 places too but I asked a question that has puzzled me for years. If there is 1 winner, 2 players in second and 4 in third is that the extent of the 7 places. The girl behind the counter said yes. Is this not a rip off ? is there any bookie that pays 7 places regardless of the number of players involved without cutting the odds or places ? I'm in a hurry before the Open starts so I'd appreciate any help. As you can see I'm usually a football betting man.

WH BONNEY

Torres_is_God wrote: »

I've just been in Lee Rhodes bookies and they tell me that they are paying 7 places too but I asked a question that has puzzled me for years. If there is 1 winner, 2 players in second and 4 in third is that the extent of the 7 places. The girl behind the counter said yes. Is this not a rip off ? is there any bookie that pays 7 places regardless of the number of players involved without cutting the odds or places ? I'm in a hurry before the Open starts so I'd appreciate any help. As you can see I'm usually a football betting man.

Yes the girl is right & no it is not a rip off. In your scenario above the next player would finish in 8th place or in a tie for 8th.

Torres_is_God

Torres_is_God wrote: »

I've just been in Lee Rhodes bookies and they tell me that they are paying 7 places too but I asked a question that has puzzled me for years. If there is 1 winner, 2 players in second and 4 in third is that the extent of the 7 places. The girl behind the counter said yes. Is this not a rip off ? is there any bookie that pays 7 places regardless of the number of players involved without cutting the odds or places ? I'm in a hurry before the Open starts so I'd appreciate any help. As you can see I'm usually a football betting man.

Thanks WH, that clears it up but also puts the mean odds into perspective. Another side to the argument that I heard was that each position should have a pool so that the amounts would vary for e/w bets which seems fairer to me. A bit like a DH in horse racing !!

Fulton Crown

Selections for open:

Andres Romero
Tim Clarke
Stewart Cink

Top European - Justin Rose

Us banks Tourney

Joe Ogilvy

badbrian

KevIRL wrote: »

My own selections

Justin Rose - PP (28/1) Bruce (28/1)
Jim Furyk - PP (22/1) Bruce (25/1)
Retief Goosen - PP (33/1) Bruce (33/1)

Nice start...I knew looking at them they were sound choices. Goosen is a very good wind player. Furyk and Rose I think were joint fourth last time around.

Fulton Crown

Fulton Crown wrote: »

Selections for open:

Andres Romero
Tim Clarke
Stewart Cink

Top European - Justin Rose

Us banks Tourney

Joe Ogilvy

Hmmm...Not lookingreat at Birkdale although the scores look horrendous this morning..if afternoon is better will suit my players.

Joe Ogilvy going well -4 - three behind after round 1 -- Go the O !!

shrapnel222

Fulton Crown wrote: »

Hmmm...Not lookingreat at Birkdale although the scores look horrendous this morning..if afternoon is better will suit my players.

Joe Ogilvy going well -4 - three behind after round 1 -- Go the O !!

they've already announced deteriorating weather for the afternoon so it looks like all the best scores of yesterday afternoon should consolidate this morning:mad:

aidankk

Graham Mcdowel is currently 20/1 i think this is going to look like value by the time the round ends, he has played the back nine well in the other rounds, and the rest are on the way back to him..

Hopefully anyway..

CHD

aarymark wrote: »

els is an ew bet to nothing in the open certain to be placed he might even win

good shout.

Pen1987

Stenson, Mediate and Soren Hansen are worth a pop. Get decent odds aswell.

Kinda32

CHD wrote: »

good shout.

Great attempt at sarcasm.. Kinda blew up in your face when Els eventually finishes in a tie for 7th and a place!

Furyk, Els and Curtis all placed so not bad selections.. Shame i only had Curtis backed!!

aarymark

CHD wrote: »

good shout.

ty for your faith 7th is a place i do believe lol

offaly4sam

Had 10 on padraig harrington e/w 33/1

TeaServer

Torres_is_God wrote:

I've just been in Lee Rhodes bookies and they tell me that they are paying 7 places too but I asked a question that has puzzled me for years. If there is 1 winner, 2 players in second and 4 in third is that the extent of the 7 places. The girl behind the counter said yes. Is this not a rip off ? is there any bookie that pays 7 places regardless of the number of players involved without cutting the odds or places ? I'm in a hurry before the Open starts so I'd appreciate any help. As you can see I'm usually a football betting man.

WH BONNEY wrote:

Yes the girl is right & no it is not a rip off. In your scenario above the next player would finish in 8th place or in a tie for 8th.

Ok. So we have 9 tied in 7th place. Places 1-7 1/4 odds.

If I have 5 e/w on a 35/1 finishing seventh, I guess it's 1/9 of the odds for a tie of 9?

I should expect what?

5 * 35/(4*9) + 5 = 9.86

Correct?

I'm only seeing a return of 5.42?!? I'm new to betting so maybe I'm missing something obvious... Can anyone shed any light on this?

badbrian

offaly4sam wrote: »

Had 10 on padraig harrington e/w 33/1

This is called aftertiming. If you want the rights to brag after the event have the decency to post up what you bet on BEFORE the event starts.

badbrian

TeaServer wrote: »

Ok. So we have 9 tied in 7th place. Places 1-7 1/4 odds.
If I have 5 e/w on a 35/1 finishing seventh, I guess it's 1/9 of the odds for a tie of 9?

This is correct. Although in theory the bookie is paying out to the full odds to 1/9th of your stake (but it works out the same).
It's the same for all wagering. Say it was a 9 horse race and the incredibly unlikely event happened and all 9 horses finished in a dead heat (obv this wouldn't happen - this is for illustration purposes) the bookie can't be expected to pay out to full odds so he pays out to full odds at 1/9 of each stake on each horse.
Another way to look at it would be to imagine it is like a pool system. You cannot pay out more than is in the pool.

TeaServer

Ah ok. It makes sense now. So close to big bucks, and yet so far....

aarymark

ccum British Open Final Round 2 Balls : 14.00 Fisher V Curtis Curtis, Ben 5/4 Won Lost 10.00 0.00
British Open Final Round 2 Balls : 13.50 Noren V Kim Kim, Anthony 8/11 Won
British Open Final Round 2 Balls : 13.40 Storm V Stenson Stenson, Henrik 8/11 Won
British Open Final Round 2 Balls : 14.10 Wakefield V Choi Choi, K.J. 8/15 Lost
18.Jul 2008 17:52 155/163 7.00 W Single British Open 2008 : Outright Live Betting (Day 2 ) Harrington, Padraig 16/1 Won Won 7.00 119.0
how sick am i at kj only a tenner but still vomit inducing
he took 8 down the last to tie the match bet

badbrian

badbrian wrote: »

I see we are already looking ahead to the Open. Having had a quick review I thought Stenson was the stand out price. 74 on BF and 45's with PP paying 6 places.

Well he got there for the place although he never threatened to win. If I hadn't jumped in at what i thought was great value I could have got 66/1 ew closer to the off. The Each way keeps me in clover anyhow.

Been wanting to back Dinwiddie for a while but have been waiting for the opportunity. Available at 25/1 for the Russian Open. Poor field.
23 under won this last year and I think I can recall some very low rounds by Dinwiddie this year. Could hose up.

I see John Daly lines up. A few years ago you'd never have imagined such a talented player lining up in what really is a fairly mediocre field.

And also there is the Seniors Open. There is 100 to 1 for Des Smyth with Ladbrokes. Nice e/w price for such a good links player.

Fulton Crown

Fulton Crown wrote: »

Selections for open:

Andres Romero
Tim Clarke
Stewart Cink

Top European - Justin Rose

Us banks Tourney

Joe Ogilvy

Open boys let me down...very close with Joe O..joint leader with 4 to go but bottled it in the run in with two bogies in last 4 :mad:

Pighead

Fulton Crown wrote: »

Open boys let me down...very close with Joe O..joint leader with 4 to go but bottled it in the run in with two bogies in last 4 :mad:

Open let a lot of peopel down! I went with Scott, Jimenez, Cabrera and Ogilvy. Four tough fcukers who I felt wouldn't be intimidated by a bit of rain and breeze. How wrong I was Three of the buggers missed the cut while Scott finished +13 or something. Tough week.

Boylesports refunded all losing singles if anybody did there bets in there. Think Paddys might have too but not sure.

Fulton Crown

Pighead wrote: »

Open let a lot of peopel down! I went with Scott, Jimenez, Cabrera and Ogilvy. Four tough fcukers who I felt wouldn't be intimidated by a bit of rain and breeze. How wrong I was Three of the buggers missed the cut while Scott finished +13 or something. Tough week.

Boylesports refunded all losing singles if anybody did there bets in there. Think Paddys might have too but not sure.

Nah Arnie....nothin back from the green boys....good slections with exception of pony tail....missed out on Irish and European opens a few yrs ago citing "weather" reasons.!!

Pighead

Fulton Crown wrote: »

good slections with exception of pony tail....missed out on Irish and European opens a few yrs ago citing "weather" reasons.!!

Have just added this piece of info to "Mistakes made by me from betting on golf over the years" That book is as big as a large house at this stage.

Collie D

badbrian wrote: »

Been wanting to back Dinwiddie for a while but have been waiting for the opportunity. Available at 25/1 for the Russian Open. Poor field.
23 under won this last year and I think I can recall some very low rounds by Dinwiddie this year. Could hose up.

Thinking along the same lines myself. Shot seventy today, five off the pace so not out of it. Didn't back him in fairness as I am still feeling sore about not following up on my drunken "sticking fifty on the nose on Harrington" boast last week. After his injury news broke I didn't even stick my free fiver bet on him and instead backed a whole bunch of no-hopers.

Laying off the golf for a while, been a while since I had a win so just doing small stakes three-ball accums. Heart nearly imploded with my "easy money" Els to beat Mickelson tournament match bet last week. Thought it was great value at 5/6 considering their respective Open form. Took until the last day for the Big Easy to overtake the smily fella.