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May Temperature Forecast/Analysis
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25-04-2008 11:47pm#1
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As usual I try to give stats for past few years.
Stats are for 9 stations, the 10 minus Claremorris as I don't have stats for this station. On average Claremorris would bring overall mean temp down by 0.04C
Overall mean
2000 11.4
01 12.1
02 11.2
03 11.1
04 11.4
05 10.6
06 11.1
07 11.4
Warmest, 12.5 1990
Coolest 8.9 1979
Overall Max
2000 24.7
01 24.0
02 20.1
03 25.2
04 21.3
05 19.0
06 22.5
07 23.5
Highest 27.2C 1997, Shannon and Valentia
Overall Min
2000 1.6
01 -1.1
02 0.8
03 2.1
04 0.2
05 -1.7
06 0.5
07 -0.4
Lowest -3.0C 1979 Casement
Clones (1979) and Kilkenny (1967) -3.7C
All data from CSO with plenty of post processing
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1) May mean temperature 08 10.9c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 23.3c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) -0.4c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 5.2mm
5) On May Day What will be the Max Temperature be in Knock Airport? 9.2c
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I am as good at this as guessing the lotto numbers.
May mean. 11.4c
Highest temp at any station. 22.1c
Lowest temp at any station. 0.6c
1/5/08 Amount of rain at Dublin Airport. 4.3mm
1/5/08 Max temp in Knock Airport that day. 12.8c0 -
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Mullingar data won't be available until the start of the following month, so until then we will have to estimate. Shouldn't be a problem, we were only 0.1c off from Mullingar's final figure during April.:)
Updated trend charts for the year so far up to the end of April, just to get a more climitological view on how things are going...
The 2008 cooling trend of the Overall Irish Mean seems to have climaxed during the middle part of April; taken as a whole, the April 08 deviation has caused a very slight rise in the trend. Will this rise continue through May? or is it just a climitological blip...? Tune in next month!!!
Included on the graph is the 2007 deviation trend for the same period for comparrison.
The trend chart was adjusted to include just the 10 stations we are now using in our monthly mean analysis.
The chart below sums up the difference between 2007 and 2008 D.F.A for the period Jan to Apr:
The above chart indicates that 2008 so far (up to midnight 30th April) is almost 0.9c cooler than up to the same point in 2007. According to climate researchers, 2007 was the warmest year in Ireland on record. So far, this record has remain unchallenged by the current year temp profile.
However, if the next few months are warmer than average, then we could be looking at another very warm year ahead (deviational speaking). A long way to go, however. So watch this space!!:)0 -
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Its a tad harder to guess the mullingar data when you haven't had any since the start of the month at least we had something from the start of the month in April. If I had to, I'd estimate the temp at 9.5C/9.4C anyway though, so no change on todays figure of 9.5C
Trend:
Forecasts:
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Some top temperatures from stations around the country during May 07:
T'wll be interesting to see if the current warm spell will allow temps to break these values.:)
Data courtasy of Met Eireann0 -
Thought I would continue the little unofficial series that I have been doing since February as a little side note to the analysis/competition. I have noticed that I have dwelt on 86 for some reason, so I may as well continue this for a while.
1986 is considered one of the coldest, if not coldest, years of the 20th century in our sweet and green land. Certainly February, March and April, as you may have read earlier, were colder than average months in 86. So how did May 86 turn out..?
Here is the trend map of the Overall Irish Mean (using just 6 stations)* worked out during May 86':
It is obvious from the chart above that May 86 was quite chilly, particularly in the first half of the month. It did warm up, albeit slowly, during the second half, but not enough to bring the final mean above average. The Overall Irish Mean of the 10 stations we use finished off at *9.9c, 0.5c below the 61-90 mean. (**not correctly reflected in the above chart as Shannon, Belmullet, Casement and Cork not included in trend due to time limits, but the trend itself remains valid as a national overview)
Some extracts from "Irish Meteorological Service" overview for May 86:
"May was a wet, dull month particularly in the west:rolleyes: and southwest. During the 1st week winds were mainly easterly; from the 8th southwesterly or westerly winds prevailed.
"The weather was unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain on most days. The storm of the 27th caused some damage as winds gusted as high as 75 to 80 miles and hour in parts of the west:rolleyes:.
"Thunderstorms were reported on the 13th, 14th, 21st and 28th. Record rainfalls were recorded at Belmullet, Galway:rolleyes: and Claremorris:rolleyes:, while Cork Airport had the wettest day of the month when 26.9mm fell on the 17th.
"The east had the most sunshine with Rosslare having 210 hrs of sunshine, near it's monthly average."
Despite high rainfall totals over the western half of the country during May 86, the east recorded most of the thunderstorms, with Dublin Apt, Casement and Rosslare the only main synoptic stations to record such during this month. (Casement recorded 3 thunder days this month). 0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Thought I would continue the little unofficial series that I have been doing since February as a little side note to the analysis/competition. I have noticed that I have dwelt on 86 for some reason, so I may as well continue this for a while.
1986 is considered one of the coldest, if not coldest, years of the 20th century in our sweet and green land. Certainly February, March and April, as you may have read earlier, were colder than average months in 86. So how did May 86 turn out..?
Here is the trend map of the Overall Irish Mean (using just 6 stations)* worked out during May 86':
It is obvious from the chart above that May 86 was quite chilly, particularly in the first half of the month. It did warm up, albeit slowly, during the second half, but not enough to bring the final mean above average. The Overall Irish Mean of the 10 stations we use finished off at *9.9c, 0.5c below the 61-90 mean. (**not correctly reflected in the above chart as Shannon, Belmullet, Casement and Cork not included in trend due to time limits, but the trend itself remains valid as a national overview)
Some extracts from "Irish Meteorological Service" overview for May 86:
"May was a wet, dull month particularly in the west:rolleyes: and southwest. During the 1st week winds were mainly easterly; from the 8th southwesterly or westerly winds prevailed.
"The weather was unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain on most days. The storm of the 27th caused some damage as winds gusted as high as 75 to 80 miles and hour in parts of the west:rolleyes:.
"Thunderstorms were reported on the 13th, 14th, 21st and 28th. Record rainfalls were recorded at Belmullet, Galway:rolleyes: and Claremorris:rolleyes:, while Cork Airport had the wettest day of the month when 26.9mm fell on the 17th.
"The east had the most sunshine with Rosslare having 210 hrs of sunshine, near it's monthly average."
Despite high rainfall totals over the western half of the country during May 86, the east recorded most of the thunderstorms, with Dublin Apt, Casement and Rosslare the only main synoptic stations to record such during this month. (Casement recorded 3 thunder days this month).
wow. A storm like that in late May. I wonder what the weather was like in the other summer months.
I vaguely recall - due to being very young - one summer between '86 and '88 as being miserable- even worse than last Summer according to my uncle.0
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