May Temperature Forecast/Analysis

Mothman

Graphs updated above,
30 day mean jumped up 0.3C today to 8.4C

Deep Easterly

Overall Mean up to midnight 7th May 08 stands at 12.7°C, which is 2.3°C above normal. Only Cork Airport has a mean up to this point that is close to normal (10.6°C); While Belmullet is (shockingly) the warmest station in both absolute and average terms (13.6°C).

Mean rainfall up to midnight 7th stands at 10.4mm, which is 15.2% of normal so far. The southwest is by far the wettest area so far this May, with Valentia and Cork already recieving 33% (combined) of their expected rainfall this month.

Thanks to he who helped very much with these totals..;)

Deep Easterly

13.0c today, which is 2.6c above average. No sign of a fall in this value over the next few days.

On the contrary..:)

mike65

Okay this is across the water, but it looks like temps could hit high 20s by end of month.

edit Its already in the high 20s in SE!

Mike.

All ye who wished cold and snow upon me REPENT and bask in the glory of the sun!

Repent before its too late and never wish for snow again!
The end of snow is nigh! All hail global warming !!
We should paint the ice caps black

Deep Easterly

Deleted User wrote: »

All ye who wished cold and snow upon me REPENT and bask in the glory of the sun!

Repent before its too late and never wish for snow again!
The end of snow is nigh! All hail global warming !!
We should paint the ice caps black

"And then we shall drink the blood of those who hail global warming; And to feast upon their still beating flesh we will, for it is written, and shall be done!"

13.4c today...

Danno

Whoa lads! The sun is getting to some of yea

Mothman

Birr 25.0C today 12th May.

Min 2.2C at Knock on 2nd,
but the one that counts, is 2.4C at Mullingar on 2nd.

nacho libre

ch750536 wrote: »

1) May mean temperature 08 14.1c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.2c
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 2.1c
4) On May Day (1st) How much rain will the protestors/hippies endure in Dublin (Airport)? 3.1mm




:mad::pac:

ninebeanrows

Chilly!

Supercell

Hope that comes off, my predictions are looking pretty dodgy for this month so far!

Trogdor

Update on this months trend so far

Mothman

Graphs for May.
30 mean stands at 11.0C, up from 7.8C on the 2nd.

Mothman

Mullingar min 2.2C

Ballyhaise may have been as low as well.

I wrong before when I said Knock didn't count

It doesn't feature in averages as it hasn't been in operation long enough, but it is a synoptic station and does count.

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

Mullingar min 2.2C

Ballyhaise may have been as low as well.

Ballyhaise min 2.1C

Low temps this morning,

Possibly lower this morning as Dublin AP and Casement down to 2.4C and 2.3C respectively this morning

Mothman

New low for month.
Dublin AP 1.7C this morning

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

New low for month.
Dublin AP 1.7C this morning

Bettered again.
Dublin AP min on morning of 20th
+0.6C

Supercell

Ohh, my min prediction for the month was 0.3°C, pretty close

nacho libre

What is the mean temperature so far this month?

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

What is the mean temperature so far this month?

12.9c today. 2.5c above average. Dublin Airport remains the coolest station with a deviation of +0.8c; while Belmullet is the warmest station at this point of the month with an whopping anomaly of +3.8c. Hard to believe it's in the arse end of Mayo..:D

Supercell

Deep Easterly wrote: »

12.9c today. 2.5c above average. Dublin Airport remains the coolest station with a deviation of +0.8c; while Belmullet is the warmest station at this point of the month with an whopping anomaly of +3.8c. Hard to believe it's in the arse end of Mayo..:D

Typical, the first month I don't forecast a large warm deviation above the mean and ..there's a large warm deviation above the mean!
That said it must be coming down pretty fast last few days.

Deep Easterly

Supercell wrote: »

Typical, the first month I don't forecast a large warm deviation above the mean and ..there's a large warm deviation above the mean!
That said it must be coming down pretty fast last few days.

It is dropping alright, but not at a huge rate. The month as a whole is looking to be very warm, probably the warmest May in quite a few years, particularly in the west and southwest. The east seems to be fairing worst to date, although still likely to end up around a degree above average here. However, early days yet.

Snowbie

Tomorrow it be 2.5 weeks with an easterly wind off the sea, a chilly one at that here in the east.

Deep Easterly

Update on overall mean and rainfall totals up to midnight 21st May:

Overall Mean



Rainfall totals for so far this month:



With the overall mean standing at 12.7c to date, Nilhg is the lead at this stage.

Quick reminder of forecasts for May:

Supercell

Hmm, Snowbie and Trogdor are gonna score well again this month i reckon.

Mothman

Overall mean to 27th
12.7C

Deep Easterly

Mothman wrote: »

Overall mean to 27th
12.7C

Is there any extra points for those of us who are furthest away from the final figure?

EDIT: Add latest charts:

Overall Mean up to midnight 28th:



Anomaly from 61-90 May average at 2.4c over. Dublin remains closest to normal.

*Mullingar value an approximation. Mothman may have more realistic value later.

Rainfall totals for the month up to midnight 28th:



At 38.1 mm, the overall mean rainfall so far this month equates to 55.9% of normal. An extraordinaraly dry month to date. Highest rainfall totals on the whole quite random and not especially confined to one particular area of the country.

Mothman

I make final overall mean being 12.9C

Max for month 25.0C at Birr on 12th
Min for month 0.6C at Dublin AP on 20th.

ch750536

I dont look so mad then...

Mothman

ch750536 wrote: »

I dont look so mad then...

Indeed, you're a lot closer than the mean.


BTW, Use 12.4C for final figure for Mullingar.