BBC Reports 1/2 of EU migrants from new states have returned home

The_Conductor

I'm guessing the stats are most probably similar for here. It makes interesting reading- particularly in light of the political commentaries regarding these people not being economic migrants....... Shane

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7372025.stm

About one million migrants from Eastern Europe have arrived in the UK since 2004 but half of them have already returned home, research suggests.

The Institute for Public Policy Research examined the impact on the UK after the EU expanded in 2004 and 2007.

It suggested that the arrival of migrant workers from 10 countries would also slow, with more returning as conditions in their countries improved.

The migrants had also spread to all parts of the UK to find work, it said.

The research looked at migrants who came from eight countries that joined the European Union in May 2004 - Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia.

Four in ten of the returned Polish migrants we surveyed think that better employment prospects in Poland would encourage Poles living in the UK to return to Poland for good

IPPR report


Poland entices its workers home

It also included migrants from Romania and Bulgaria, which joined in 2007.

The research by IPPR, a Labour-leaning British think tank, estimated that about one million migrant workers had come to the UK from 2004 accession countries, but that around half of this group had already left the UK.

The IPPR also predicted that fewer migrants from the new EU states would come to the UK and many already in the UK would return to their home countries in the coming months and years.

It based this forecast on the development of the EU countries, with improving economic conditions making it less likely that would-be migrants will leave.

"Four in 10 of the returned Polish migrants we surveyed think that better employment prospects in Poland will encourage Poles living in the UK to return to Poland for good," the IPPR said.

According to the research released to the BBC, there were 665,000 nationals from all 10 countries living in the UK in the last quarter of 2007.

Government underestimated

This was an increase of 548,000 since the first quarter of 2004, just prior to the first eight countries joining the EU.

The government had underestimated the number of migrants post-expansion, saying that between 5,000 and 13,000 would arrive after 2004.

In fact, by 2006, Home Office minister Tony McNulty admitted that the government was "in the dark" over arrivals - 293,000 immigrants had applied for work permits in the first 18 months.

As EU countries change their restrictions on the new members, workers will be more likely to migrate there rather than to the UK, the IPPR suggested.

There will also be a smaller pool of possible migrants because of declining birth rates in the mid-1980s.

And the pound's devaluation in relation to the Polish currency will narrow the gap between potential earning in Britain and Poland.

The IPPR said the pound has already fallen by around a quarter relative to the Polish zloty since early 2004.

The research also suggested that the geographical spread of EU migrants in the UK was wider than previous waves of immigration.

It said that even areas that have not traditionally attracted migrants, such as Scotland and south-west England, had attracted a "significant proportion" of migrants.

This showed that migrants were willing to move to where work was available.

The number of migrants from the new EU countries arriving in the UK had also started to slow substantially, with 17% fewer worker registrations in the second half of 2007 than during the same period of 2006, the IPPR said.

"We estimate that some 30,000 fewer migrants arrived in the second half of 2007 as did in the second half of 2006."

Airport links

The IPPR looked at the Labour Force Survey, national insurance number applications, and the Workers Registration Scheme - applicants are required to register on the scheme as soon as they start working in the UK.

It also studied the International Passenger Survey and questioned Poles who had returned to Poland after working in the UK.

Air travel between Britain and Poland had also changed since accession.

In December 2003 about 40,000 passengers flew between three British airports and Warsaw and Krakow in Poland, but four years later it was possible to fly from 18 British airports to 10 Polish cities.

Passenger numbers between these destinations in December 2007 were almost 385,000.

The IPPR, established in 1988, says it aims to promote social justice, democratic participation and sustainability in government policy through its research and analysis.

beeno67

smccarrick wrote: »

I'm guessing the stats are most probably similar for here. It makes interesting reading- particularly in light of the political commentaries regarding these people not being economic migrants....... Shane
quote]
I wouldn't be so sure the same thing is happening here. The big difference is the dramatic fall in the value of sterling. A worker in Ireland on minimum wage can expect to earn 25-30% more in Ireland compared to UK. By the way who is saying migrants to this country are not economic?

Ponster

Very good article here IMHO

What if all the Poles when home?

johnnyskeleton

smccarrick wrote: »

I'm guessing the stats are most probably similar for here. It makes interesting reading- particularly in light of the political commentaries regarding these people not being economic migrants....... Shane

I don't know who Shane is, but he must have mixed up Eastern European Immigrants with asylum seekers (a completely different thing).

On the whole topic, while the obvious negative for Ireland is the decrease in economic activity (and taxes), I expect most Irish people will be more concerned about having to go back to doing the jobs we have become accustomed to ignoring (working in a shop, cleaning, back-breaking manual labour etc).

SimpleSam06

beeno67 wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure the same thing is happening here. The big difference is the dramatic fall in the value of sterling.

The euro has likewise been falling dramatically in relation to the Zloty, making it much more economical for economic migrants to work at home.

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I don't know who Shane is, but he must have mixed up Eastern European Immigrants with asylum seekers (a completely different thing).

Hardly. All of the evidence seems to be pointing towards EE migrants returning home.

gurramok

SimpleSam, you've forgotten one thing!...Ireland is different!

Yes, despite our own unemployment rate going past 200,000 and a prediction of around only 20,000 jobs being created this year with GNP being indicated to fall for 2 consecutive quarters(Recession) and 40% less PPS numbers being issued to new arrivals than same time last year, the hordes of immigrants will continue to arrive and those that are already here are to stay forever as they are loyal to the 'Celtic Tiger'

beeno67

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

The euro has likewise been falling dramatically in relation to the Zloty, making it much more economical for economic migrants to work at home.


Hardly. All of the evidence seems to be pointing towards EE migrants returning home.

The Euro has fallen about 9%. Sterling has fallen about 25% against the zloty. A pretty big difference.
If you are talking about Ireland. Where is all the evidence pointing towards EE migrants returning home

beeno67

smccarrick wrote: »

Four in ten of the returned Polish migrants we surveyed think that better employment prospects in Poland would encourage Poles living in the UK to return to Poland for good

.

This was the surprising part for me. It implies that 60% either don't know or else think that migrants will not return home, even with better employment prospects in Poland

SimpleSam06

beeno67 wrote: »

The Euro has fallen about 9%. Sterling has fallen about 25% against the zloty. A pretty big difference.

Over the period that Sterling fell 25% against the Zloty, the Euro fell 15%, and tellingly is still falling. Not such a big difference.

The_Conductor

beeno67 wrote: »

Where is all the evidence pointing towards EE migrants returning home

In an Irish context from two sources- the quarterly workforce survey and from consular registrations. The CSO has admitted that its figures are totally unreliable however.

adam.number2

Jan1 2004 Euro - Zlotych 4.6999443682
May1 2008 Euro - Zlotych 3.4580791908

Jan1 2004 GBP - Zlotych 6.6629979766
May1 2008 GBP -Zlotych 4.4145400879


Not that you'd actually bother with facts Sam, but that's -27% for Euro and -44% for Sterling. That would be a 17% difference... shure thats not much right! thats 44/27 .... 62% more of a reduction.

Source http://www.xe.com/ict/

Latchy

Britian is still seen by many migrants to be easy pickings for benifits ,housing jobs etc and i imagine quite a lot on returning will moan about how cruel they were treated while living here regardless of weather they were or not.

Then you will have the others who will embrace any chances of employment / education and decide to settle and be happy to do so to .

SimpleSam06

adam.number2 wrote: »

Not that you'd actually bother with facts Sam, but that's -27% for Euro and -44% for Sterling. That would be a 17% difference... shure thats not much right! thats 44/27 .... 62% more of a reduction.

You are correct, I didn't check the sterling rate from 2004, reading it instead from an article, randomly googled, which was wrong. Still no cause for personal abuse ya big seven post wonder ya.

adam.number2

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

You are correct, I didn't check the sterling rate from 2004, reading it instead from an article, randomly googled, which was wrong. Still no cause for personal abuse ya big seven post wonder ya.

It was hardly abuse to point out your scant regard for facts and figures... and certainly nothing compared to what you dish out on every forum from Acc&Prop to After Hours. However if you were genuinely offended, I apologise.

SimpleSam06

adam.number2 wrote: »

It was hardly abuse to point out your scant regard for facts and figures...

Generally speaking I stick to accurate facts and figures, if I didn't things like that would happen a lot more often. However when you're right you're right, I'll happily admit that and move on.

That the facts you pointed out don't support the idea that the Poles are staying is a nice side effect, though.

adam.number2 wrote: »

and certainly nothing compared to what you dish out on every forum from Acc&Prop to After Hours.

Meh, debate can get vigorous, and on the very rare occasions if lines are crossed I am brought up on it, same as anyone else. I'm still here after 2000 posts, which should tell you something.

In any case I've never had a discussion with you until now, unless you're some kind of a re-reg, number 2.

adam.number2 wrote: »

However if you were genuinely offended, I apologise.

Ah its alright, at least you didn't trot out the old "Simple" one, that never gets old.

Enough off topicness!

johnnyskeleton

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Hardly. All of the evidence seems to be pointing towards EE migrants returning home.

Well this Shane fellow seems to have said that Eastern Europeans were not economic migrants. To be honest, I can't imagine any other reason for Eastern Europeans to have come here over the last few years (apart from randomers who fell in love with an Irish person, or who like rain etc). So I would imagine that if Shane really did say that they weren't economic migrants, he's probably alone in that view, and unworthy to be considered a political commentator.

The_Conductor

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Well this Shane fellow seems to have said that Eastern Europeans were not economic migrants.

Nope- I said that political commentators were alluding to our recent immigrants as not being economic in nature. Its the argument that they use to justify our recent domestic building spree, and why they argue that tax revenues will continue to grow- justifying the ongoing increases in expenditure etc. My intention in the way I phrased it was to highlight the irony of it all.......

johnnyskeleton

smccarrick wrote: »

Nope- I said that political commentators were alluding to our recent immigrants as not being economic in nature. Its the argument that they use to justify our recent domestic building spree, and why they argue that tax revenues will continue to grow- justifying the ongoing increases in expenditure etc. My intention in the way I phrased it was to highlight the irony of it all.......

Some of them are economic migrants, others are not.

The majority of those from the Eastern European Accession states are most likely economic migrants. But that does not mean that all of them are economic migrants.

But that aside, if some people come to Ireland with the intention of working for a year or two and then going home with the money, it would be interesting to know how many will then return to their countries of origin. I would imagine that quite a few will decide to settle down in Ireland notwithstanding any economic downturn.

derry

I worked in outfits like call centers and factories which employed lots iof polish and eastern Europeans and I also mixed with a lot of them

Most are just having a bit of fun working abroad somewhere and Uk and Ireland are easier than France and Germany to work in because of the lack of work permit restrictions
However with push comes to shove most stay longer inUK than Irealnd as the money in Ireland is generally so crap for the same work i n UK when you facotr in the high cost of living in Ireland they can often save more money in cheaper to live in UK and also more often get cheaper weekend flights home and to other places like Spain or Italy whatever

The new in place is sweden and norway
Sweden is good for work permits like ireland

norway is filthy rich full of oil and oil prices ging up the norwegians are swimming in cash and dishing out work permits like billy ho and minum wage is like 12 euro per hour

No brainer Norway is the in place and I might join them and aperantly more than half the building trade in Ireland of Irish and Polish laid off from building are on their way to Norway

most eastern europeans I ever met in ireland stayed less than one year with 6 months to be average and most I kept in contact with were back home after two or three years

derry