Thunderstorms

Snowbie

Yup just saw that BB, another late night for me so watching them cross the channel into southern UK later this evening and overnight. Already there is a lot of strikes in central France moving slowly northwards.

Anyway here is the triangulated from Europe updated every 1-5mins

http://www.strikestareu.com

The WASP2 updates in real time across europe but cant get that online just yet. Have to make do for the mo with my regional WASP2 map that covers only Ireland. Hopefully interesting tomorrow.

ch750536

Estofex is a bit interesting

'Given 30 m/s deep layer shear and more than 400 J/kg SRH3, isolated storms will likely be supercellular and should be capable of producing large hail and isolated strong tornadoes'...

ch750536

*HUGE GRAPHIC WARNING*

http://www.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/images/msg/HRV.jpg

See the storms there too.

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

Just seen the BBC lunchtime forecast and they were talking a lot of thunder tomorrow.
It should reach the South east of Ireland by late afternoon and spread northwestwards as like the last few spells.
Except this time it will have a lot of embedded thunderstorms.

It looks exciting!

hmmm not very condusive conditions tomorrow to thunderstorms over here IMO. It looks like it will just be frontal muck rather then thunderstorms. England though looks like getting some storms

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2411.png

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

hmmm not very condusive conditions tomorrow to thunderstorms over here IMO. It looks like it will just be frontal muck rather then thunderstorms. England though looks like getting some storms

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2411.png

They(The UKMO) were rather bullish at lunchtime today.
I was thinking welsh imports in the flow to be honest.
We'll see.

Snowbie

Wales looks in the firing line on 12z with the core of the most favourable Cape and LI which drifts NNW towards NI.

ninebeanrows

Cape steeply falls just to our east.

Potential for a few embedded storms to drift in alright.

Torrential rain for sure however.

That barn in Simmonscourt is going to be quite noisy tomorrow afternoon.

ch750536

hit 62 strikes per min just now, 1500 in the last hour.

Snowbie

Very inaccurate that but he does upload to the strikestar network

Try this triangulated one

http://www.strikestareu.com

Crossing the channel now and i have picked up very distant strikes myself just in range.

Snowbie

Really kicking off down over south UK.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote: »

Really kicking off down over south UK.

Yep this was expected. Id say its quite spectacular in parts atm. Interestingly some dust from the Sahara in those storms cant be ruled out either considering the posistion of the Low pressure to our south. Some of these storms have actually originated in Africa.

Snowbie

We should get leftovers tomorrow here in the east. Electrified remains to be seen.
This clump survived the channel crossing lets see if the Irish sea has an effect, its pulling in alot of humid air behind it though which could still fuel it.

Hal1

SW UK really getting blitzed atm. Storms pushing inland.

forkassed

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/kent/7422931.stm

A house in Kent has been struck by lightning during heavy storms which also led to flooding.

Kent Fire and Rescue Service was called to the house in Manse Way, Swanley at about 0230 BST. The residents managed to escape without injury.

Crews were also called to Harbour Parade, Ramsgate and Shorncliff Road, Folkestone as water seeped into homes.

In Ramsgate, 649 properties in Monkton lost electricity because of a fault in overhead wires caused by the storm.

EDF Energy said engineers were working to restore supplies as quickly as possible.

The emergency services also received calls from Margate and Broadstairs.

Snowbie

Cape to around 600j/kg with LI -3 across the middle of the country and away from the coasts. TS very possible with surface heating today.

Snowbie

First signs of convection off the Louth coast over the sea and just inland west of me.

Damomanye

Theres a big clump of heavy rain moving towards me..i can already see some very VERY dark clouds to my south east.

Any activity in there at all?

Snowbie

Can see a huge Cb exploding over the South Wicklow mountains from here.

DOCARCH

Snowbie wrote: »

Can see a huge Cb exploding over the South Wicklow mountains from here.

Was just going to report same - was just looking at it from the back garden. It's at least 20/30 miles south of here I would estimate.

StratoQ

Thunder began here at 15Z. Several claps then the following hour. Not too much rain though and no hail. Approx 1mm total. Thunder appears to have passed off NE in Carlow direction.

Deep Easterly

Snowbie, do you have any thoughts on monday next? I have noticed that the ECM in particular has, in its last few runs, a slack continental low coming in contact with an approaching (though weak) trough moving in from the Atlantic.







Not sure will anything come of it, but would the approach of an Atlantic trough clashing with a continental airmass over Ireland, (which is forecast by ECM for Monday eve especially), trigger of storms on a more widespread level than of late?. Cheers.

nilhg

Just had a heavy shower with thunder and lightning here, it seemed to appear out of nowhere, certainly caught me out, I was out spraying a field of wheat when it started and I had checked the radar about an hour before hand.:o


More rumbles there now as I type.

nilhg

Strikes every couple of minutes or so now, off to my east, roughly over the Curragh.

Sierra Oscar

I can hear some very loud claps of thunder every now and then where I am.

Snowbie

Deep Easterly wrote:

Snowbie, do you have any thoughts on monday next? I have noticed that the ECM in particular has, in its last few runs, a slack continental low coming in contact with an approaching (though weak) trough moving in from the Atlantic.

Not sure will anything come of it, but would the approach of an Atlantic trough clashing with a continental airmass over Ireland, (which is forecast by ECM for Monday eve especially), trigger of storms on a more widespread level than of late?. Cheers.

Interesting setup but a tough one to call.

Though the air on monday will be returning from over a cool Atlantic source there be less warm humid air asscociated with it as if it where coming from southern Europe.(no southerly source humid plume and little warm air being advected)

Pressure will be low, so sunny skies and maximum surface heating aswell as a line of instability moving in from the atlantic with some forcing over mountainous areas could spark off some sharp showers very quick ahead of the short wave trough as close too but not on the west and south coasts. This is a good trigger for storms. Troughs act differently crossing over land in summer to what they do in winter, they create more instability and intensify due to surface heating.

Atm i don't think a squall line or any form of wind convergence will form but these situations are a nowcast. Homegrown single cell storms moving NE in the flow would be the best bet from me.More widespread i agree but away from the very south and west coasts just the opposite as is happening in the east atm.

Snowbie

This is an example of (WAA) warm air advection into a (MCS) multicell system over Germany from the SE fueling the storm that has probably supercell characteristics now.

Before the link expires.

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=de&sat=vis

Danno

That is MAD!

Deep Easterly

Cheers Snowbie, a fair analysis.:) It does look like a lot of wind shear is possible during monday especially. Could be interesting for some, particularly the further away from Galway you are...

DOCARCH

Met E forecast for Monday:

Scattered heavy showers will develop through the day. Some thunderstorm activity will occur also with hail and a risk of local flash flooding.

Snowbie

Some convection over N Tipp already and looks to be exploding.
There could be some moderate storms around today through the midlands and west.