Buyer bubble burst...

SimpleSam06

adam.number2 wrote: »

Yes Sam, Iceland sounds very like Ireland... but despite their similar names, they are very different countries.

Less different than you might think. The government since around 2000 have been basing most of the planning for the economic future of the country on the economic models of Norway and, you guessed it, Iceland. Our membership in the EU definetely does add a safety net, but that doesn't mean jobs will pop out of nowhere.

beeno67 wrote: »

Just looked at your list again. Vancouver caught my eye, a city I know well. It has a population of about 600,000 or about half that of Dublin with an average house price of €336,000. I wouldn't put too much faith in this list

Its based on urban areas due to different countries having different definitions of what a "city" is. I'd say that includes the metropolitan areas and the immediate catchment zone.

Gegerty wrote: »

IT built the celtic tiger,

No, property built the celtic tiger, based on loans that have to be repaid. That time is upon us.

Gegerty wrote: »

its weathered its own crash

We're only in the first step of the bubble popping, massive shifts like this take years to play out. We can talk about how well we weathered the storm in 2012 or so.

adam.number3

gurramok wrote: »

It's a quite an eye-opener. There are some professions there that are seriously overpaid for their duties, no wonder the budget for the Dept of Health itself has mushroomed in recent years.

Quite an eye opener alright, thanks for posting the link.
Looks like pretty much everyone except for the Gaurds, the Nurses and the prison officers are getting grossly overpaid, even without taking pensions into account! The lecturer salaries are amazing... I feel the call of academia!

The_Conductor

adam.number3 wrote: »

Quite an eye opener alright, thanks for posting the link.
Looks like pretty much everyone except for the Gaurds, the Nurses and the prison officers are getting grossly overpaid, even without taking pensions into account! The lecturer salaries are amazing... I feel the call of academia!

The lecturer salaries do look very tempting- but you have to keep in mind that tenured lecturer positions are now confined to staff with doctorates (in the NUI anyhow- it was quite an eyeopener to a lot of the staff there- the number of people rapidly doing their doctorates from 1997 onwards shot up).

Re: the scales in the civil service (page 91 onwards) while it was considered that all their scales were sufficient (with the exception of the PO scale) and did not warrant any further increases under benchmarking- this was only after an inflator of between 15 and 20% was added to salaries to take pensions into account (note: any employees post 1995 are paying 15% of gross + full PRSI towards superannuation anyhow- another thing which isn't taken into account). Graduate recruitment starts at under 30k, and takes 14 years to reach 50k- not the most alluring salaries if they are actually trying to recruit intelligent staff for the future......

While the guards, nurses and prison officers salary scales do appear to be quite low- if you factor their hours into the equation and the fact that the average employee in any of the 3 professions earns as much as their base pay in overtime- its not nearly as miserly as it appears. The average salary INO members earned in 2007 was 58k for example (the average nurse being 54k). Gardai are paid about 6% lower than graduate recruitment for the civil service (unless they are graduates- in which case its roughly 22% higher).

While the links are of interest- they really don't emphasise anything startling- other than the chronic overstaffing at all levels, but especially admin, in the HSE. While there is a perception that we need more nurses- the actual fact of the matter is we have just under twice the average OECD number of nurses per head of population (12.9 per 100,000 versus an OECD average of 7.8).

Swings and roundabouts. Public finances are up the creek- whats Cowen and Lenihan going to do? Probably the easy option and cut capital expenditure (especially as we are looking at breaching the 3% borrowing limits of the EU/ECB by mid 2009).

What did our poor little country do to deserve the shower of politicians we have?

SimpleSam06

gurramok wrote: »

Wonder where Cowen will get the dosh to pay the public sector now that public finances are in the sh1t by a forecasted €8bn!

You can't stealth tax your way out of 8 billion euros this year, and ten billion next year. He'll be pushing up income taxes to pay for the grotesque public pay bill. I'd tell him to tighten his belt but look at him ffs.

Calina

smccarrick wrote: »

While the guards, nurses and prison officers salary scales do appear to be quite low- if you factor their hours into the equation and the fact that the average employee in any of the 3 professions earns as much as their base pay in overtime- its not nearly as miserly as it appears. The average salary INO members earned in 2007 was 58k for example (the average nurse being 54k). Gardai are paid about 6% lower than graduate recruitment for the civil service (unless they are graduates- in which case its roughly 22% higher).

While the links are of interest- they really don't emphasise anything startling- other than the chronic overstaffing at all levels, but especially admin, in the HSE. While there is a perception that we need more nurses- the actual fact of the matter is we have just under twice the average OECD number of nurses per head of population (12.9 per 100,000 versus an OECD average of 7.8).

Couple of points: if nurses and gardai are ramping up their earnings with overtime to have respectable looking incomes (and apparently 50K is not a lot in today's Ireland according to posters here), then they are underpaid. No one should have to do that particularly in critical areas like healthcare or policing. It's an accident waiting to happen.

Secondly, monumental levels of overtime are a management issue. It is generally an indication of understaffing or poor management of resources. This needs to be addressed but instead, the common response seems to be to harp on about what the employees are earning in overtime and not about how poor the management is.

The_Conductor

In a lot of cases- you simply cannot blame management. The unions are at very least as culpable. I've lost track of the number of LRC cases I've seen from unions demanding overtime opportunities for their members- or allowances and other compensation if such overtime is brought back to reasonable levels. If the figures are to be believed- doctors are far from the only profession doing 100+ hours a week, some farm staff have clocked over 130 hours a week at certain times of the year....... With the latest recruitment freeze and embargo on fixed term contracts- this can only get worse.

Whats going to happen? These guys will continue to do their monstrous overtime, quite happily- and fight for their right to do so. New staff are not allowed (apart from anything else- the pensions issue, even after the two most recent revisions, is still the main reason for this). Public expenditure will go down- primarily through abondoning chunks of Transport 21 and the new NDP schemes. Taxes for private individuals will go up (particularly as IBEC and co will fight tooth and nail to keep our corporation taxes as is). Inflation is continuing to rise- in every aspect of our everyday lives- and we have this crap too. The average person walking down the street will suffer (certainly not the government ministers with their payrises of above the average industrial wage (or graduate wage, as it is rapidly becoming known as).

Why have we lost total control? Why? I'd really love to hear an honest and intelligent reason.......

SimpleSam06

Calina wrote: »

Couple of points: if nurses and gardai are ramping up their earnings with overtime to have respectable looking incomes

Wait hold on, lets correlate a couple of facts:

• We have almost twice the average number of nurses in this country.
• Nurses are doing a lot of overtime.

Something does not fit here. Was there a plague or major war in Ireland that I missed?

smccarrick wrote: »

Why have we lost total control? Why? I'd really love to hear an honest and intelligent reason.......

Ireland was until recently pretty much a third world country. This is where you got Charles J, the charismatic strongman that people trusted, and like all such charismatic strongmen in poor countries, he plundered the public coffers while cementing his position by bolstering the public sector.

The current crop of politicians learned their trade at his knee, so we have third world politicians in a first world country, and they are doing their damndest to reduce us to third world levels again, since thats the environment they prefer, and thats what they understand. They might not have that specific aim in mind, but thats where they policies that they follow will ultimately lead.

Tis time for a change, but you have the younger generation's apathy due to "things getting better" and growing up in a society of plenty. The older generation still has faith in the donkey cart politicians, since they mistakenly credit them with the economic boom. They are busy tightening their belt like good little peasants, as per the last time. When the crunch really starts to kick in and the pinch is felt, then is when you might see serious change coming from younger generations.

jmayo

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

....
No, property built the celtic tiger, based on loans that have to be repaid. That time is upon us.
....

I beg to differ, the Celtic Tiger (similar to the tiger economies of the far east based on technology) was indeed due to IT or more correctly the likes of MS, Intel, Dell, Hp, etc initially setting up shop in Ireland to avail of entry to EU, cheap taxes, grants and good labour supply. Then there was the .COM bubble and then the whole telecomms boom.
We had some hoem grown highflyers such as Baltimore, Trintech etc but where are they now ?

But the Celtic Tiger affectively died back in 2001 and was replaced by an economy based on a residential building boom fueled by the world wide availability of cheap credit, government planning (Sectioon 50s, Section 23s) to aid development in certain areas and the fact that Irish people greedily fed into the myth that you can't loose on property.

SimpleSam06 wrote: »

Tis time for a change, but you have the younger generation's apathy due to "things getting better" and growing up in a society of plenty. The older generation still has faith in the donkey cart politicians, since they mistakenly credit them with the economic boom. They are busy tightening their belt like good little peasants, as per the last time. When the crunch really starts to kick in and the pinch is felt, then is when you might see serious change coming from younger generations.

Actually I bet the majority of the younger voters (18-35 all professions), who bother voting voted for FF (Bertie), since they believed their shoebox appreciating appartment, their lines of coke, their BMW and 4 holidays a year are all down to him.
These will be the ones that will receive the biggest wake up calls when they finally realise that the credit card has to be repaid, you can't have a trip away every other month and you do actually have to save to buy things.

In fact a lot of the oldest voters are disillusioned as they are the ones really seeing the mess that is called the HSE and they are often are the victims of thuggery and crime that Irish society has now degenerated into.

SimpleSam06

jmayo wrote: »

I beg to differ, the Celtic Tiger (similar to the tiger economies of the far east based on technology) was indeed due to IT or more correctly the likes of MS, Intel, Dell, Hp, etc initially setting up shop in Ireland to avail of entry to EU, cheap taxes, grants and good labour supply.

Well I'll grant that there was a correlation between the two, but by the mid 1990s, house prices had started to spike up sharply, right in the middle of the tiger economy. It is debatable how far it would have gone had that not happened.

BigglesMcGee

Couple of the people reading here that work with me have pointed out that they are renting a house with other people.

There are 4 people renting the house, (all on over 50k i might add), each of them is planning on buying when the time is right.

So if they all did eventually buy then there would still be one empty house and 4 houses bought.

punchestown

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

Couple of the people reading here that work with me have pointed out that they are renting a house with other people.

There are 4 people renting the house, (all on over 50k i might add), each of them is planning on buying when the time is right.

So if they all did eventually buy then there would still be one empty house and 4 houses bought.

Thats alright then! Housing bubble bursting magically mended!

ionapaul

punchestown wrote: »

Thats alright then! Housing bubble bursting magically mended!

In fact, it looks like we need MORE empty houses prepared for when this buyer's bubble bursts! I'd advise everyone who needs more than €50k a year to scrape by to immediately prepare by training as EAs and mortgage brokers, you will be needed soon!

gurramok

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

Couple of the people reading here that work with me have pointed out that they are renting a house with other people.

There are 4 people renting the house, (all on over 50k i might add), each of them is planning on buying when the time is right.

So if they all did eventually buy then there would still be one empty house and 4 houses bought.

Why don't they buy now?

ixoy

smccarrick wrote: »

Graduate recruitment starts at under 30k, and takes 14 years to reach 50k- not the most alluring salaries if they are actually trying to recruit intelligent staff for the future......

This isn't always the case though surely - AOs can get to AP level quite quickly I imagine and have over 50k in much quicker than 14 years.

BigglesMcGee wrote:

There are 4 people renting the house, (all on over 50k i might add), each of them is planning on buying when the time is right.

What defines when the time is right? It'll differ for each person for a start, so it's not like you're all going to jump out on September the 9th and rush off to buy a house.
As to the 50k thing, I do believe you're looking at your own immediate circle - none of my friends, all approaching 30, are on that although it's conceivable they'd reach it within the nearish (2-3 years) future. All we can really go on is the figures we have (such as in the report above) and extrapolate from published figures to determine affordability for the general masses.

BigglesMcGee

gurramok wrote: »

Why don't they buy now?

I guess because they are all waiting to see how much property will fall by. Noone in their right mind would buy when its going down.

From my own point of view, my family are only back in Ireland less than a year and are renting until we see some stability come back. When that happens is anyones guess.

BigglesMcGee

ixoy wrote: »

This isn't always the case though surely - AOs can get to AP level quite quickly I imagine and have over 50k in much quicker than 14 years.


What defines when the time is right? It'll differ for each person for a start, so it's not like you're all going to jump out on September the 9th and rush off to buy a house.
As to the 50k thing, I do believe you're looking at your own immediate circle - none of my friends, all approaching 30, are on that although it's conceivable they'd reach it within the nearish (2-3 years) future. All we can really go on is the figures we have (such as in the report above) and extrapolate from published figures to determine affordability for the general masses.

I'm sure they wont be buying at the same time, but im just trying to point out that everything is not black and white and not at all as bad as people make out - well, Dublin anyway. (that example was to show that 1 rental property does not equal on bought property in the supply and demand equation).

I have a wide circle of friends, family, colleagues, etc. They are not all in the same jobs (IT, Finance, Teachers, Construction, Nurses, Doctors, Barmen, factory workers, Taxi drivers, guards, accountants, lots of self emplyed doing really well for themselves) and they are various age groups and marital statuses. The vast majority earn over 50k.

I would hazard a guess as to say 30 is the braekout point for most people. Its when they start to make serious moves in the career and Salary stakes, when they settle into working life and their expectations and skills increase at a rapid rate.

Just one example that pops out at me because it was mentioned earlier and my brother is a primary teacher:

A teacher can have their hons primary degree and be working at 20 - 21 years old.
If you look at the salary scale that was posted earlier, you will see that by age 30 a teacher can be easily earning significantly over €50k. And masters, special ed etc can be done during those 10 years to increase it further. And very often these days teachers can be vice principles before they reach 30 too. They will certainly have posts which further increase their salary.

gurramok

Ok Biggles, we have established that your circle of friends earn over 50k and most probably no offence are over 40?
It would be expected that this demographic would earn in the 50k range as hey there are older and longer in their professions.

Regarding their occupations, teachers, nurses, guards are public sector, i just cannot see them getting raises in the future, still secure jobs mostly

Taxi drivers are struggling(just ask any of them), construction we know is in freefall, factory workers ain't having rosy prospects(basing this on manufacturing issues at moment), IT ain't exactly blossoming(i'm in IT).
What have we left, accountants may be ok in good jobs, self-employed may feel the pinch if the economy goes into recession and lastly the 50k barman, this for real unless he owns the place?

As to whether they are FTB's, well we know your fellow 3 renters might be but its known that people at that age would have probably jumped on the buying wagon by now. But to suggest(if you did) that an average FTB has 50k pay packet is really taking the p1ss.

Anyway, well the question is...how long would your 4 renter friends wait till to buy?

And if so, what reduction on price are they looking at on present gaffs to encourage them to make a move to buy?

BigglesMcGee

gurramok wrote: »

Ok Biggles, we have established that your circle of friends earn over 50k and most probably no offence are over 40?
It would be expected that this demographic would earn in the 50k range as hey there are older and longer in their professions.

Regarding their occupations, teachers, nurses, guards are public sector, i just cannot see them getting raises in the future, still secure jobs mostly

Taxi drivers are struggling(just ask any of them), construction we know is in freefall, factory workers ain't having rosy prospects(basing this on manufacturing issues at moment), IT ain't exactly blossoming(i'm in IT).
What have we left, accountants may be ok in good jobs, self-employed may feel the pinch if the economy goes into recession and lastly the 50k barman, this for real unless he owns the place?

As to whether they are FTB's, well we know your fellow 3 renters might be but its known that people at that age would have probably jumped on the buying wagon by now. But to suggest(if you did) that an average FTB has 50k pay packet is really taking the p1ss.

Anyway, well the question is...how long would your 4 renter friends wait till to buy?

And if so, what reduction on price are they looking at on present gaffs to encourage them to make a move to buy?

oh please, you're just arguing for the sake of arguing. Read what i said. Did i say over 40. no. I said over 30. Did i say all of those people earn over 50k. no. I said Most of them do. So why attribute things i didnt say to me.

Your predictions on peoples future salaries are about as good as anyone heres predictions on the economy and property prices - A guess.

teachers, nurses, guards etc. You're wrong again. Public sector salaries are on increments, therefore will increase as time goes by, as they increase their qualifications or get promoted, even without benchmarking or the like - Read those examples that you linked to.

Taxi drivers make more than you think. If you know any, you'll know the poor mouth in the car is an act. Construction is not as bad as you think. Think plumbers, tilers, trades. The IT sector is indeed blossoming (I'm in it too and not one of my staff is on under 50k and the self employed ones are on a hell of a lot more) and we still have vacancies we cant fill.
The others are low paid jobs. I was only describing how varied the people i know are in answer to Ixoy is all. Dont take it that they are all raking it in.

I dont rent with those people i was talking about. Read the post.

Does the average ftb earn 50k? Dont know. I think they earn more than you think they earn though. And something we're all forgetting here is that its relatively common for dual income couples to buy these days rather than single buyers.

When will the people i was talking about buy? How would i know? All i know is that those 4 people (if they all buy as they want to) will leave one property and move into 4 properties having a net effect of taking 4 properties off the market and putting 1 on the market. If any of them couple up then the ratio is lower, but you get what im trying to say. The point is that its not a 1:1 relationship.

The sky is falling slowly but its not going to fall all the way to the earth. The country is not headed for the toilet. Rents will not plumet and house prices will not fall through the floor (in Dublin).

I know we'll never agree on everything because i think you may be one of those bears who is now the opposite of what the over enthusiastic bull used to be.

But can we agree on the following:

Dublin is safer than the rest of the country

Rents are not plumetting despite popular belief. (They may be falling in some areas)

House prices are falling, but there is no visible crash as of now.

78% of people do not earn under €35,400 (sure someone on the dole and rent allowance is probably getting around 20k )

People can earn over that figure without paying tax at the higher rate.

The average nurse earns a lot more than you thought they earned

gurramok

Okay, what we can gather is that your friends earning over 50k (most) are quite unique. No-one here stated similar here ever afaik. I know a few earning over 50k but they are in the minority, go figure.

If 4 of them leave to buy a house, thats 4 rooms xtra on the market for rent in the upper end of things as they earn so much.

On your last points, rents will plummet, just look at the daftwatch graph for Dublin over the last year and half, yes thats dublin only. 150% rise since Jan '07. Supply and demand.

Dublin had the highest rises in prices the country, it ain't safe. They will fall the largest and we are on the way to that.

Yes, there is a crash. Look up what a crash is defined as. Drops of circa 10% per annum are realistic for a crash(go lookup what a crash is) and so far in the last 2 years, we've had that.

Yes, 78% of people do earn under 35.4k, is there something wrong with that statistic which the govt prob derived from the revenue?

Yes, people can earn more using tax credits, it ain't gonna translate to a majority earning over 35.4k, the numbers are not sufficient, guaranteed. (Prove me wrong)

The average nurse(here we go again) earns more by working their arse off on night shift all the time.(take out pension and prsi contributions which means the HSE figure looks so wrong)

I think at the end of the day, your not lookin outside your own box as the majority with stats do prove DO NOT EARN under 50k p.a. (your part of the half a mill that earn over 35.4k pa)

beeno67

gurramok wrote: »

.

Regarding their occupations, teachers, nurses, guards are public sector, i just cannot see them getting raises in the future, still secure jobs mostly
quote]
Gurramok, are you stil at this? At least you now agree I was right all along about public service pay and pay in general in Ireland. You should know that public service jobs all have pay scales which means every year they get pay rises just for staying in the same job.
By the way , As I already told you nurses do not do overtime in general in Ireland. You really should listen to me more

Firetrap

They're not all on 50K a year though. Not all public servants get overtime or are guaranteed to be promoted.

beeno67

Firetrap wrote: »

They're not all on 50K a year though. Not all public servants get overtime or are guaranteed to be promoted.

That's the point. They get pay rises every year even if they are rubbish, just for staying alive and working. They don't need to be promoted

adam.number3

gurramok wrote: »

IT ain't exactly blossoming(i'm in IT).

IT is booming... Im in it too. You need to go contracting :-)

Firetrap

beeno67 wrote: »

That's the point. They get pay rises every year even if they are rubbish, just for staying alive and working. They don't need to be promoted

No, but it will take them a while to get to 50k. And wasn't 50k supposed to be what most FTBs and their dogs are earning? :rolleyes:

SkepticOne

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

When will the people i was talking about buy? How would i know? All i know is that those 4 people (if they all buy as they want to) will leave one property and move into 4 properties having a net effect of taking 4 properties off the market and putting 1 on the market. If any of them couple up then the ratio is lower, but you get what im trying to say. The point is that its not a 1:1 relationship.

You said earlier that they are not going to buy on the way down. I'm just wondering why they did not buy on the way up? Did they feel the bubble was about to burst? Could they not afford to buy?

adam.number3

SkepticOne wrote: »

You said earlier that they are not going to buy on the way down. I'm just wondering why they did not buy on the way up? Did they feel the bubble was about to burst? Could they not afford to buy?

Different people have different life circumstances and perhaps different reasons for buying or not buying... some just follow the trends and the economists.

SkepticOne

adam.number3 wrote: »

Different people have different life circumstances and perhaps different reasons for buying or not buying... some just follow the trends and the economists.

Sorry but the question is directed at BigglesMcGee who knows the people in question. They are being used as examples of the sort of people who will jump in an buy when the time is right.

BigglesMcGee: "There are 4 people renting the house, (all on over 50k i might add), each of them is planning on buying when the time is right."

gurramok: "Why don't they buy now?"

BigglesMcGee: "I guess because they are all waiting to see how much property will fall by. Noone in their right mind would buy when its going down."

The point is being made that they can well afford to buy but they won't because of falling prices. But prices have only recently started falling. So does BigglesMcGee who knows them know why they didn't buy on the way up?

BigglesMcGee

SkepticOne wrote: »

Sorry but the question is directed at BigglesMcGee who knows the people in question. They are being used as examples of the sort of people who will jump in an buy when the time is right.

BigglesMcGee: "There are 4 people renting the house, (all on over 50k i might add), each of them is planning on buying when the time is right."

gurramok: "Why don't they buy now?"

BigglesMcGee: "I guess because they are all waiting to see how much property will fall by. Noone in their right mind would buy when its going down."

The point is being made that they can well afford to buy but they won't because of falling prices. But prices have only recently started falling. So does BigglesMcGee who knows them know why they didn't buy on the way up?

I dont know them all so i dont know for sure but my guess would be that all of these people are around 30 or just over and its not long that they've been earning enough to buy. Circumstances differ, but the fact is they are hoarding and waiting right now.

Sure my brother has been waiting since 2002 to buy a house (he could have bought one at any time since), all the while saying he was waiting for the crash. He's still waiting.

Gurramok, i think you are in serious danger of becoming the complete opposite of the bull with the rose tinted glasses. Arguing with youis like arguing with my wife. She doesnt listen and Shes always right in her own mind even when shes wrong.

Why dont you just read the salary scales on public service jobs (that you linked to) and find out for yourself how long it takes for someone to come up to 50k (without overtime). And take into account promotions, extra qualifications etc and see how much faster the journey is.

And like it or not, most people work overtime to make an extra few quid or get some extra time off. Its not a shocking revelation. Its happened since the year dot.

Calina

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

And like it or not, most people work overtime to make an extra few quid or get some extra time off. Its not a shocking revelation. Its happened since the year dot.

No one has an issue with this. What I have an issue with is the idea that it might be automatically assumed that this is the norm for people in particular sectors, eg nursing, and that this is why their basic salaries do not need to be adjusted - ie they can make it up on overtime. My point is why the hell should they have to? Is their free time worth less to society or something? Mostly it appears that it is.

As for your four friends that you don't really know all that well...what it boils down to is this: they are waiting because they know the property market is in trouble and it's in trouble in a bad kind of way for people on that salary bracket: anything they buy even now will require a trade up in a few years time. One year actually, knowing some of the entry level properties in Dublin. No one can remain sane in some of the small apartments that have been built as so called starter homes in this city.

So I'm willing to be that they have made the following call: they are renting shared which means their rental cost is not extortionate per person. They are saving. The more the save, the more of a deposit they will have. Prices are falling. As long as they continue to fall while their savings are increasing, the position of your friends continues to improve vis a vis the type of property they are looking to buy. I can see this because it's happening to me, you see. Their options are probably far, far better now than they were 12 months ago, and they are still improving.

Not only that, rents are falling too so actually, they might even be in a position to save even more for a while into the future, improving their options still further.

Ultimately, the game we are in now is no longer how high can they go, but how low can they go.

I know a lot of people who bought while the market was rising. They are commuting infrom Navan and places in Carlow. Apparently they did what the smart money was doing because you couldn't lose.

I don't know how they feel about that now, given that it's getting harder to sell property at a price which sellers feel they deserve, their fuel costs are up 30% in the last 18 months at least, traffic is getting worse, inflation is rising. I could have bought a house any time since 2004 or so, but I'd have had to do the commuting too. Most people I know thought I was mad for exactly 10 minutes until I sat them down with a piece of paper and did the maths.

It doesn't a matter a damn how much your property is rising by if you're not going to be cashing it in. It does matter how much your petrol is costing. I live five minutes from work. I don't think I'd be happy right now if I'd capitulated two years ago and bought in Slane and had to commute 30 miles to work every day.

SkepticOne

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

I dont know them all so i dont know for sure but my guess would be that all of these people are around 30 or just over and its not long that they've been earning enough to buy. Circumstances differ, but the fact is they are hoarding and waiting right now.

Sure my brother has been waiting since 2002 to buy a house (he could have bought one at any time since), all the while saying he was waiting for the crash. He's still waiting.

So if these four are to be representative we are talking about people for whom age and salary have only recently become favourable to home buying. I would suggest that they are not a large group at present since the market has only been falling around two years (only about 14 months if you go by the ESRI figures).

While I agree that some of them will hold off until they see clear signs of a recovery in the market, others will jump in on the way down when they feel they see value in the market. Even in the current market there are still FTBs, just a greatly reduced number. This number will gradually increase as prices become less prohibitive.

In the normal market people are attracted by value. It seems to be a characteristic of bubbles that, approaching the peak, movement in prices becomes the dominant motivator rather than absolute value. Upward momentum take over from fundamental value. Immediately after the peak downward momentum is still dominant but gradually value takes over once again.

I stand to be corrected here. What would prove me wrong is some statistics that show that an abnormally high number of 50K+ earners came of age just after peak of the market in Ireland. Personally, all the people I now on this kind of money have already bought.