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Buyer bubble burst...
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Pa ElGrande wrote: »Information Technology (IT) is mostly a service to business. Its already been through the dot com bust, and was contracting when the construction sector was going ballistic.
In the current environment there are opportunities for IT personnel, the banks (London) are currently looking for programmers as they race to develop new models to handle the current crisis.
Rising energy costs are driving consolidation of existing infrastructure to realise costs savings (the downside is that less administrators are needed, but if you are upskilling yourself then you should be OK for work)
In telecoms the model is changing with even small medium enterprises using broadband and switching to voice over IP (VOIP). The high price of oil is driving the demand for remote working.
IT is one of the few areas being utilised at the moment to automate and improve productivity (e.g. moving front ends of companies to web based).
However when you get a prolonged contraction/recession/depression in business IT eventually gets it in the neck as well, so there may be a lag before we seen large scale redundancies in this area.
I guess you're right. IT will be hit too when the "Great depression" comes
Along with everything else.
Roll on the great depression0 -
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Gurramok, are you stil at this? At least you now agree I was right all along about public service pay and pay in general in Ireland.
No, you were not. We were discussing about nurses and gardai and we found out that the average nurse does not earn 56k pa. I dug up proof of that from various govt depts and you still rubbished it.
And pay in general for the entire workforce in Ireland is not the same as an average of 49k in the public service.
If we had the MEAN pay of the public service or pay in general for every worker, it will be lower, thats guaranteed.
I'm still waiting for you to disprove the 78% earn under 35.4k figure the Govt have released.You should know that public service jobs all have pay scales which means every year they get pay rises just for staying in the same job.
By the way , As I already told you nurses do not do overtime in general in Ireland. You really should listen to me more
Yes i do know that about public service pay scales.
But guess what, the public service encompasses around 256,000 or so jobs(according to Irish Times) and by focusing on them as the most highly paid and most secure sector, we are missing what the other 1.9m or so workers earn.
That other 1.9m also buy and sell houses as well as rent them and they are the vast majority of the workforce.
Maybe you should re-read and understand when real hard facts are stated and proved(the nurses part, 78% figure of workforce earning below 35.4k part) instead of ignoring them. (this applies to Biggles as well, waiting for concrete proof that the govt stats are wrong, a govt link ain't just any old link on the net Biggles
)
Biggles, from reading your post the following jumps out.Just look at the point scales on Public jobs (and dont lose sight of the fact that public jobs are the only jobs out there either) that have been posted here, or look for some more, and work it out for yourself. Pay close attention to how long it takes before they are on a significant salary.
It may come as a shock to some of us that property in Dublin IS justifiably expensive. Maybe a little too expensive right now, but nevertheless, its going to be expensive always (apart from when the great depression hits), then noone will have a job anyway.
And it may come as a shock that people arent as badly off as we think.
The above seems to contradict each other.
First you state that public jobs are the only secure jobs out there, your not stating that the public sector is the only sector keeping property prices expensive in Dublin?
How justifiably expensive should property be in dublin?
I'll take a snapshot of working class areas for example:
Should a 3bed hse in Crumlin always cost 350k+?
Should a 3bed hse in Darndale always cost 250k+?
Should a 2bed apt in Ballymun always cost 230k+?
Should a 3bed hse in Finglas always cost 300k+?
Considering no professional couples who are the only ones able to afford would even consider buy in these areas, who should and can?0 -
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First you state that public jobs are the only secure jobs out there, your not stating that the public sector is the only sector keeping property prices expensive in Dublin?
Sorry mistyped. I think thats an obvious mistype there. You dont seriously think i meant that there were no jobs but public jobs do you - or believe that they could possibly be or that anyone would say they are. cmon.
But at least you quoted correctly
Let me put the 'not' in the post.0 -
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BigglesMcGee wrote: »Any particular reason why you picked only areas in Dublin where you require a tank to commute?
Because it's one edge of the coin where no-one wants to live bar low earning locals and you need high earning people to afford to live there.(before any backlash occurs, i grew up in one of those areas and know whats its like to have lived there)BigglesMcGee wrote: »But as i've said before, in general prices are too expensive and need to come down. The point i continue to make in this thread is that Dublin prices will not fall as much as people seem to think (Hope).
Why not, in case you have not noticed, not everyone earns near to 50k a yr to afford to live anywhere in Dublin(city and suburbs)!BigglesMcGee wrote: »Just on your 78% earn under 35.4k figure.
If you read the pdf you linked "Paying tax at the
standard rate*
(including those whose
liability at the higher
rate is fully offset by
credits)"
Would you not read from this that there are people on the standard rate who earn more than 35.4k? Dont ask me how many, i have no idea.
Fair enough, we dont know how many.BigglesMcGee wrote: »I would imagine married persons make up the majority. One half of a married couple with one person working can earn about €45k without hitting the high tax rate.
A married couple with both working ( i think there is a minimum amount that has to be earned by the lower earning half) can earn about 70k between them without going onto the high rate, and 1 half can earn the vast majority of that total. And thats even before any other tax credits are taken off.
Are the numbers we do not know of, is it sufficient enough to bring that 78% to even 50%?
Being pedantic, 70k divided by 2 is 35k which is under the higher tax rate burden
Point being in the overall sense, thats a difference of some 600,000+ taxpayers, i seriously doubt the married tax credit helps that much.
We do know nearly 40% pay no tax at all due to low wages so the numbers affecting from the married scenario wouldn't be much.BigglesMcGee wrote: »Now, before we get into more arguing here i'll just try to clarify my position as it seems to be getting lost in all the arguments here.
1 - I think property IS overvalued throughout the country.
2 - I think Dublin is so much more insulated than the rest of the country and not as overvalued (rents and purchases). I cant tell you by how much because it would only be a guess. (to clarify, Dublin includes anywhere with a good transport link to the city center (and now that its been mentioned, i dont include the undesirable parts of dublin in that insulated area))
3 - I dont believe that we are headed for a great depression (though we do have a correction to go through)
4 - I dont think that people can always afford to live where they want to, especially in the center of not just a capital city, but the only significant work pool (by which i mean if you lose your job, you're more likely to get a similar job close by) in Ireland. So if you want you buy in Dublin you better be on a high salary, relative to any competition you may have for the property you want.
5 - I think People in Ireland earn more than most people here believe.
Have you not noticed that Dub prices actually went up the highest?
An you know what goes up the furthest will fall the hardest(Price drops have been noted for this)
Again, how do you define Dublin, is it everywhere? Is it everywhere bar the undesirable parts? (Note: Dublin and suburbs, not city centre exclusive)micmclo wrote:At the risk of being flamed by the Dublin posters you've picked some fairly undesirable areas.
But yes, many professionals would consider those areas.
I've seen plently of threads about Premier Square,Finglas and East Finglas and "New" Ballymun here.
Recent thread about a poster looking for a house to rent and wanted opinions on Drimnagh vs Crumlin in Dublin forum
I know 3 "professional" people who bought in Drimnagh and some in East Wall.
People in good jobs will consider those areas (well, maybe not Darndale).
To be fair, mickmclo, i did pick those areas as an example of how ridiculous pricing has become.
The professionals have often picked new gated communities on the fringe of so called dodgy areas and i know that the likes of Premier Sq which is gated and more towards Glasnevin like Finglas East would be more desirable.
What i had pointed out was that there is a vast amount of housing in old corpo estates all over the city which not a single local(in emphatic terms) could not afford to buy locally and no professional would buy either, thats if they have aims in life like not watching over their back constantly 0 -
To be fair, mickmclo, i did pick those areas as an example of how ridiculous pricing has become.
The professionals have often picked new gated communities on the fringe of so called dodgy areas and i know that the likes of Premier Sq which is gated and more towards Glasnevin like Finglas East would be more desirable.
For the second time today, I have a short username but everyone misspells it! Sure I'm here since 2004
And come off it, Premier Sq is in Finglas. Didn't I read about some development (not Premier Sq) advertised as "close to Glasnevin" lol
Sorry offtopic and good post otherwise0 -
Ooops micmclo.
Yeh the thing about gated communites(usually apt blocks cordoned off from corpo housing estates) is that it reminds me of a certain post i made before on Premier Sq.me! wrote:Regarding Premier Sq, it 'used to be' in Finglas East until the developer changed the address to get that sale higher price on the Glasnevin address.
Still, your across the road(literally) from Finglas South, your local supermarket is in Finglas beside you(Tesco) plus your petrol and your bus is the 40, all Finglas for Premier Square but not in name
Still, when you leave this world in donkeys years time, you'll be in Glasnevin permanently
PS - I could of picked 'decent areas' where people view as desirable and those same professional couples could still not afford to buy there.
Anyone disagee and point out where anywhere is affordable for these people? 0 -
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i grew up in one of those areas and know whats its like to have lived there)
Me tooFair enough, we dont know how many.
Are the numbers we do not know of, is it sufficient enough to bring that 78% to even 50%?
Wont you even agree that there are a hell of a lot of married couples?
And it is enough to make a significant dent in the 78% that you are clinging onto for dear life.Being pedantic, 70k divided by 2 is 35k which is under the higher tax rate burden
Point being in the overall sense, thats a difference of some 600,000+ taxpayers, i seriously doubt the married tax credit helps that much.
Are you moving the goal posts now?
But werent we talking about your method of "Proof" that 78% are paying tax at the lower rate?
Exactly how few people do you think are married in Ireland anyway?We do know nearly 40% pay no tax at all due to low wages so the numbers affecting from the married scenario wouldn't be much.
Could it be that there would be a higher proportion of people on low wages who arent married, younger age profile?
There are more tax credits too you know. Read all about it. I'm sure there is more up to date info on tax credits somewhere too.
http://www.ireland.com/focus/election2007/features/features15.htmlHave you not noticed that Dub prices actually went up the highest?
An you know what goes up the furthest will fall the hardest(Price drops have been noted for this)
Have you noticed that no of jobs, incomes, population, etc in Dublin actually went up the highest?Again, how do you define Dublin, is it everywhere? Is it everywhere bar the undesirable parts? (Note: Dublin and suburbs, not city centre exclusive)
Read my last post.
All im saying here is that your method of calculating that 78% of the workforce are on less than €35.4k, which we've wasted so many posts arguing, is flawed and so of no use to us at all, I think even you have to agree this.0 -
Yes there are.BigglesMcGee wrote: »Wont you even agree that there are a hell of a lot of married couples?
Alot of course are married.BigglesMcGee wrote: »And it is enough to make a significant dent in the 78% that you are clinging onto for dear life.
Are you moving the goal posts now?
But werent we talking about your method of "Proof" that 78% are paying tax at the lower rate?
Exactly how few people do you think are married in Ireland anyway?
One thing you assuming is that all these married couples even qualify for the maximum married tax credits and other credits, wreckless assumption.
Yes i know about the tax credits, i even claim the max myselfBigglesMcGee wrote: »Could it be that there would be a higher proportion of people on low wages who arent married, younger age profile?
There are more tax credits too you know. Read all about it. I'm sure there is more up to date info on tax credits somewhere too.
http://www.ireland.com/focus/election2007/features/features15.html
So we know that around 850,000 do not pay income tax, thats a wage if i remember correctly of below 21k pa. We agree
I'd agree that older people generally earn more, its common sense as they have more job experience built up over the years.
As we know the average FTB is about 32 yrs of age, what you just said above concurs that they don't really by large be raking it in on 50k each(some do, most don't) unless you think 32 is old?!
Lets see from the link. 2 income married couple tax band raised to 68k. One income married couple tax band raised to 43k
In order for the numbers to be sufficient to bring that 78% down by even 10% or 20%, you're going to need each person/couple of a marriage to be of lower pay(that shoots down your lots do earn 50k point), you cannot be saying that the vast majority of married couples are high earners?
Thats just laughable, you have to agree there.
EDIT:Here's the 2007 link http://www.budget.gov.ie/2007/downloads/TechnicalAnalysis.pdf
It looks as if around 11.5% of all types of people fall into the tax credit category to bring them down from higher rate of tax, still thats around 67% earning below 35.4k pa.
We know the jobs and population part, can you prove that incomes went up highest in Dublin to justify every single dwelling to go up in price too? (every single dwelling went up in proportion no matter where it was located(around 300% in 10yrs), on your logic, everyone's incomes went up by the same amount?BigglesMcGee wrote: »Have you noticed that no of jobs, incomes, population, etc in Dublin actually went up the highest?
And then we haven't even considered rental yields yet!BigglesMcGee wrote: »All im saying here is that your method of calculating that 78% of the workforce are on less than €35.4k, which we've wasted so many posts arguing, is flawed and so of no use to us at all, I think even you have to agree this.
It ain't that flawed, i had suspected the married tax credit would bring that 78% down a few percentage points.
It still proves that most people, and i mean the majority do not earn nowhere near 50k or even 40k.
Even the only reliable figure for industry states an average industrial wage of 33k pa.
Of course if we knew what the average or the fairer measurement called the MEAN wage of the workforce, then we could settle this for all but hey this is Ireland, the land of secret stats 0 -
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Yes there are.
Alot of course are married.
One thing you assuming is that all these married couples even qualify for the maximum married tax credits and other credits, wreckless assumption.
Yes i know about the tax credits, i even claim the max myself
So we know that around 850,000 do not pay income tax, thats a wage if i remember correctly of below 21k pa. We agree
I'd agree that older people generally earn more, its common sense as they have more job experience built up over the years.
As we know the average FTB is about 32 yrs of age, what you just said above concurs that they don't really by large be raking it in on 50k each(some do, most don't) unless you think 32 is old?!
Lets see from the link. 2 income married couple tax band raised to 68k. One income married couple tax band raised to 43k
In order for the numbers to be sufficient to bring that 78% down by even 10% or 20%, you're going to need each person/couple of a marriage to be of lower pay(that shoots down your lots do earn 50k point), you cannot be saying that the vast majority of married couples are high earners?
Thats just laughable, you have to agree there.
EDIT:Here's the 2007 link http://www.budget.gov.ie/2007/downloads/TechnicalAnalysis.pdf
It looks as if around 11.5% of all types of people fall into the tax credit category to bring them down from higher rate of tax, still thats around 67% earning below 35.4k pa.
We know the jobs and population part, can you prove that incomes went up highest in Dublin to justify every single dwelling to go up in price too? (every single dwelling went up in proportion no matter where it was located(around 300% in 10yrs), on your logic, everyone's incomes went up by the same amount?
And then we haven't even considered rental yields yet!
It ain't that flawed, i had suspected the married tax credit would bring that 78% down a few percentage points.
It still proves that most people, and i mean the majority do not earn nowhere near 50k or even 40k.
Even the only reliable figure for industry states an average industrial wage of 33k pa.
Of course if we knew what the average or the fairer measurement called the MEAN wage of the workforce, then we could settle this for all but hey this is Ireland, the land of secret stats
Ok, so w're agreed you were wrong. And you've made a few mistakes in your last post too as usual, but i couldnt be arsed arguing with you. Its like talking to a brick wall. So you win if it means that much to you. I'm just wasting my time. Good luck on buying that house in the center of Dublin by the way.0 -
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BigglesMcGee wrote: »Ok, so w're agreed you were wrong. And you've made a few mistakes in your last post too as usual, but i couldnt be arsed arguing with you. Its like talking to a brick wall. So you win if it means that much to you. I'm just wasting my time. Good luck on buying that house in the center of Dublin by the way.
From 78% to 67%, that does not mean i was wrong as the vast majority of the workforce still do earn under 35.4k and thats the crux of the issue.
At least we established that it is the real figure after tax credits have been included.
I have stated the 67% figure before on boards last year and the year before when it came out so nothing new there on my part as the new 78% figure was released only 6 months ago.
It's not about winning and losing like throwing your toys out of the pram. Its about getting real facts out about the situation unlike your boasting about the 50k earning issue without figures to support it, i had to get the figures for you to disprove your ranting.
Don't get upset when facts and figures discredit your opinionionapaul wrote:The bulls who two years ago argued that 'there won't be a housing price correction, but even if there is, it will be a soft landing where houses only go up by 5% a year instead of 15%, and even if there is a hard soft landing where prices decline, Dublin won't feel the effect, but even if house prices in Dublin do go down, the expensive D4 and D6 redbricks definitely won't go down...' have already been proven WRONG, as we've all seen in the papers and on the property asking price watch websites. How can anyone still argue that Dublin prices will be insulated from the ongoing crash in residential property values? If the value of 2-bed apartments (that no-one has or will ever probably live in) in Carrick-On-Shannon declines by 50% over the next 3 years and Dublin 3-bed semi-detachs only decline by 25%, does this count as 'showing resiliance'?
Thats because bulls have been living in ivory towers and as each bit of reality hits home, some do still be in denial despite facts and figures discrediting them.0 -
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If the value of 2-bed apartments (that no-one has or will ever probably live in) in Carrick-On-Shannon declines by 50% over the next 3 years and Dublin 3-bed semi-detachs only decline by 25%, does this count as 'showing resiliance'?
Well- nationally prices have only fallen by 9.8% in the year to the end of April (and in April they fell by .9% on the previous month), so, this is relatively speaking an unusual degree of resiliance, particularly considering the current economic climate. New developments aside (some of which have had over 20% reductions in asking prices and are selling, others of which are still relying on free cars and other silly offers- and are not), the falls in Dublin 3-bed semis are for the most part theoretical in the current market- as the secondhand market has largely dried up (particularly with the insistence on a maximum of 92% mortgage which is excluding the average FTB from these- though some are managing to squirrel away surprisingly large deposits). If people really want to sell, they will have to drop prices. Now that rental yields are also falling- it stands to reason that the rent-it-out instead of selling it mentality will be revised in the months to come. Given that you cannot remortgage an investment property to release equity for the purchase of a PPR (as I discovered), if people are serious about moving house, they will just have to bite the bullet eventually. Interesting times.
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