Thunderstorms

Mothman

Deleted User wrote: »

Gone quet now.
The shower is exiting out over Arklow Bay.

I rang MM again for some live reporting on that storm..I was standing out in the open looking up when a fork came down from an arc in the cloud in the field over head..making me stand on the big dogs tail further making him yelp with the jump I made.He wasn't leaving my side and had a funny look at me as If I was going to stop the thunder lol

Maybe not the safest thing to be doing

I got to hear more thunder today than in the last year...........almost all via BB's phone

DOCARCH

Managed a thundershower here (2 relatively loud claps of thunder) with 4.2mm of rain between 5.15 and 5.45pm. 6.0mm in total from showers to date today.

Weather BOFH

Absolutly nothing at all here, about 10 drops of rain in total!

As usual I took a time lapse which you can see here:

http://flickr.com/photos/nemonoid/2556208343/

Hal1

Ah yes, thats made my day now Feck all rain here today.

The tax man

Another nice time lapse vid nemonoid. Can I ask what the time interval between each shot is?

Weather BOFH

The tax man wrote: »

Can I ask what the time interval between each shot is?

Shots were taken every 5 seconds over around 3 hours 30 minutes and encoded to video at 50fps. I have to reduce the size (original is 2274x1704) as the resulting file is around 4-5GB. The upload to flickr then reduces the frame rate to 25 or 30 fps I think.

Hopefully there will be plenty more storms to capture over the summer

Snowbie

Monday afternoon looks likely to be turbulent again with the south and SE at high risk atm. A sea breeze front could be created close to the south coast overland with a wind convergence then later transfering into Wexford and Wicklow where lift will aid in developing some explosive development from the mtns.

pirelli

Loud thunder in Leinster over wicklow mountains SAT Night

Supercell

Whats up with the Irish radars?, show nothing currently yet there is a front tracking accross the country, and even with thunder it seems.

Any on the ground reports from the midlands ?

nilhg

Met Eireann radar shows front fizzling out over Cork, presently absolutely clear over West Kildare

Weather BOFH

Pretty much clear here too. Nothing of much interest on the satelite either, front breaking up over the west.

Danno

Scandy high is building, along with a splitting jet - one north and one south - taking place off west scotland.

Snowbie

pirelli wrote: »

Loud thunder in Leinster over wicklow mountains SAT Night

Nah, must have been something else.

ninebeanrows

Yea Danno, looks like winters finally arriving:eek:

Might not be too bad, cool, feeling warm in the sun kinda stuff with some nice convective activity

Danno

WC, Where have you been this long time?

Hal1

Cape seems good around the midlands later today maybe 300 J with small amount of lift.

Snowbie

Hal1 wrote: »

Cape seems good around the midlands later today maybe 300 J with small amount of lift.

Not great for development according to the 0Z on a widespread scale. But the air is indeed humid and with slight surface warming, a localised downpour might be triggered.Low risk atm.

CAPE not great but the trigger is there albeit slight.
Let you know what the 6Z brings, I think a slight upgrade

Danno

Currently 18.0c here. DP of 14.0c. Humidity of 78%. A bit of surface heating would spark one in those conditions.

Snowbie

Chance is Low of Ts activity today.

Tomorrow risk remains high in the same areas (SE) as i mentioned yesterday and GFS is consistent on that.
Convergence is still there but a little slighter today.
Air Temps upto 23C with Dp at 16C-18C
Rh 80-85%
Met.ie dont seem to agree and are going for dry warm and sunny. I beg to differ from the below attach atm.

Hal1

Those charts look significantly better for tomorrow. I was looking at the earlier chart here. Thanks for the update Snowbie.

Snowbie

Forgot to include the forecasted air temps to the links above

Snowbie

GFS still going for a risk of storms for the SE but i think it might be overplaying the risk??.
Pressure remains high at around 1028mb although there is a good trigger at the surface for unstable conditions.
Time will tell.

M.T. Cranium

I don't see a thread started for this topic, so I'll just dump it in here.

There appears to be some potential for severe thunderstorms in eastern and central Ireland tomorrow, late afternoon and evening. The best indicator is strong winds aloft and moderate wind shear developing. Some other index values are more marginal.

Heavy rainfalls may develop without the other severe elements, but I also expect to see one or two reports of hail and strong wind gusts.

Snowbie

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I don't see a thread started for this topic, so I'll just dump it in here.

There appears to be some potential for severe thunderstorms in eastern and central Ireland tomorrow, late afternoon and evening. The best indicator is strong winds aloft and moderate wind shear developing. Some other index values are more marginal.

Heavy rainfalls may develop without the other severe elements, but I also expect to see one or two reports of hail and strong wind gusts. That sunshine prediction for Malin Head will do well to exceed three hours, methinks.

Post moved
We can use this thread here for that:)

In keeping with the above, there is an upgrade(18Z) to an earlier convective potential.
The potential for some embedded storms risk has increased but only slightly. Initially for the SW areas later transferring east.
I don't see hail or severe Ts according to the 18Z with attach below as there is other more marginal values involved.
Strong winds aloft, Yes.

6Z will paint a better picture for a more possible event.

Snowbie

Contd

Hal1

Thanks for the charts Snowbie looks promising, but won't get too exicted just yet as we have been let down before. 40 - 45% risk for the east ehh? Cape values look good, hopefully it will track NE and surface heating helps it along it's way. You can gaurantee the rain though 100%

Snowbie

Sfc heating will be minimal Hal as we are looking at a total cloud cover atm. Dews are not bad with also at the surface be in the warm sector.
The mid to upper atmosphere looks suitable for embedded Ts, aswell as a low level shear may develop later in the afternoon in the east as MT mentioned already.

Will post up on the 06Z at around 1100 Saturday morning to compare.

M.T. Cranium

I had a look at the 00z guidance and the data to 04z ... actually looks a little more dynamic now than before, so I will stick to my theory for now ... and add that Sunday is looking very windy in the northwest in particular (with westerly gusts to 55 mph), but across most of Ireland by afternoon, and potentially squally at times, so the more severe storms may actually come then if the Saturday main cold front of the system wimps out. When I look at 3-hour positions for this feature it seems to accelerate through eastern Ireland and this may be just the kicker required to set off at least a borderline severe storm with Dublin looking to be as likely as anywhere to see this. For Sunday, the most likely areas seem to be north of about Birr to Galway.

Snowbie

The 00Z keeps the risk going well into the evening and first part of the night.
Just waiting for the 06Z to roll out.

ninebeanrows

Looks a tad windy for mid Summers night!