Thunderstorms

Snowbie

Forgot to include the forecasted air temps to the links above

Snowbie

GFS still going for a risk of storms for the SE but i think it might be overplaying the risk??.
Pressure remains high at around 1028mb although there is a good trigger at the surface for unstable conditions.
Time will tell.

M.T. Cranium

I don't see a thread started for this topic, so I'll just dump it in here.

There appears to be some potential for severe thunderstorms in eastern and central Ireland tomorrow, late afternoon and evening. The best indicator is strong winds aloft and moderate wind shear developing. Some other index values are more marginal.

Heavy rainfalls may develop without the other severe elements, but I also expect to see one or two reports of hail and strong wind gusts.

Snowbie

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I don't see a thread started for this topic, so I'll just dump it in here.

There appears to be some potential for severe thunderstorms in eastern and central Ireland tomorrow, late afternoon and evening. The best indicator is strong winds aloft and moderate wind shear developing. Some other index values are more marginal.

Heavy rainfalls may develop without the other severe elements, but I also expect to see one or two reports of hail and strong wind gusts. That sunshine prediction for Malin Head will do well to exceed three hours, methinks.

Post moved
We can use this thread here for that:)

In keeping with the above, there is an upgrade(18Z) to an earlier convective potential.
The potential for some embedded storms risk has increased but only slightly. Initially for the SW areas later transferring east.
I don't see hail or severe Ts according to the 18Z with attach below as there is other more marginal values involved.
Strong winds aloft, Yes.

6Z will paint a better picture for a more possible event.

Snowbie

Contd

Hal1

Thanks for the charts Snowbie looks promising, but won't get too exicted just yet as we have been let down before. 40 - 45% risk for the east ehh? Cape values look good, hopefully it will track NE and surface heating helps it along it's way. You can gaurantee the rain though 100%

Snowbie

Sfc heating will be minimal Hal as we are looking at a total cloud cover atm. Dews are not bad with also at the surface be in the warm sector.
The mid to upper atmosphere looks suitable for embedded Ts, aswell as a low level shear may develop later in the afternoon in the east as MT mentioned already.

Will post up on the 06Z at around 1100 Saturday morning to compare.

M.T. Cranium

I had a look at the 00z guidance and the data to 04z ... actually looks a little more dynamic now than before, so I will stick to my theory for now ... and add that Sunday is looking very windy in the northwest in particular (with westerly gusts to 55 mph), but across most of Ireland by afternoon, and potentially squally at times, so the more severe storms may actually come then if the Saturday main cold front of the system wimps out. When I look at 3-hour positions for this feature it seems to accelerate through eastern Ireland and this may be just the kicker required to set off at least a borderline severe storm with Dublin looking to be as likely as anywhere to see this. For Sunday, the most likely areas seem to be north of about Birr to Galway.

Snowbie

The 00Z keeps the risk going well into the evening and first part of the night.
Just waiting for the 06Z to roll out.

ninebeanrows

Looks a tad windy for mid Summers night!

Snowbie

Interesting development and 06Z inline with 00Z
An area of instability off the SW coast will approach there sometime late afternoon and spread gradually NE across the country.
Attach are the 06Z for Cape LI and risk area. 50% overall.
As the jet intensifies (300mb) before exiting the area things get favourable.

Snowbie

Contd

Snowbie

Met.ie have changed there forecast and are onboard with the risk now

Today
Heavy rain or showers at times in many areas this afternoon with some heavy thundery downpours in places, some drier periods also. Top temperatures 13 to 17 degrees and breezy.

Tonight

Further persistent and at times heavy rain tonight in northern areas, clear periods and heavy showers elsewhere, with a continuing risk of thunder. Lowest temperatures of 8 to 11 degrees. Becoming very winds overnight.

Snowbie

An area near to the midlands has intensified recently moving NE.
Some gusty winds are being reported from the midland stations.
Notice the curvature forming of the image indicating intensification.

Damomanye

Any chance someone could mark that curvature on the radar for me? i cant seem to see what snowbie is referring too.

i see a little tail curl kinda like the hook echos they got over in the good ol USA where tornados form from.

Snowbie

This be a bit clearer as it's zoomed out.
Play the loop and see the curvature forming.
Similar to tornado's but this less dramatic. The tip of the hook on the southern side is where you would get a tornado forming.
I was commenting on the intesification of the rain in my post with gusty winds in the midlands.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Snowbie

Ts over Clare heading towards Galway and a couple of Strikes now over Cork.

RoisinD

Just had a very active thunderstorm here in NW Clare followed by rain which was unbelievable 40ml in 15 mins!

CrowdedHouse

Thunder heard in Oranmore,Galway

biko

Raining buckets in the city. I can see lighting and hear thunder aprox 7 secs after

Darwin

Huge flash of lightning nearby - about 10 seconds between it and sound of thunder. Rain has abated a little bit, looks like a clearance on the way from the south

dloob

Really heavy rain here in Galway City with thunder.
I've never seen it so heavy :eek:

Dublin road flooded near merlin park hospital, a couple of inches near the hospital entrance.
Traffic is slowing down through it

Mothman

RoisinD wrote: »

Just had a very active thunderstorm here in NW Clare followed by rain which was unbelievable 14cm in 15 mins!

Yes that is unbelievable!!

aidan_dunne

Darwin wrote: »

Huge flash of lightning nearby - about 10 seconds between it and sound of thunder. Rain has abated a little bit, looks like a clearance on the way from the south

Yep, I thought I heard a rumble here in Portlaoise around that time alright. Didn't see that flash of lightning you're reporting, though. Just had another louder rumble here about a minute or two ago and the rain's pretty heavy too. Can't see the clearance to the south you've mentioned yet, though.

Neither Snowbie's or Danno's detectors seem to be picking up anything from either of those rumbles yet either. Maybe it's fairly weak or something.

*edit* Both detectors showing a +IC strike in Laois now from the most recent rumble, I'm guessing...... but in different areas! Guess it takes the pages a few minutes to update.

snubbleste

biko wrote: »

Raining buckets in the city. I can see lighting and hear thunder aprox 7 secs after

So much rain fell in galway!
All the same, it's nice to see a thunderstorm once in a while.

aidan_dunne

Just had another rumble here but the sky is starting to brighten up a bit and that clearance seems to be finally coming here from the south - southwest that Darwin mentioned before.

Deep Easterly

Full on thunderstorm here for the last half an hour. Some really powerfull forked lightning and ripping thunder. Only just got electricity back. . Rain is heavy but not exceptional.

Edit: That was a big one!!!!

Edit: severe downpour now! with thunderbolts!!

I'm in heaven...

edit edit: 15mm in less than 10 mins. my hands are shaking with excitment with big thunder. A grim evening.

Deep Easterly

47mm recorded from the downpour so far, not a bad total for 30 mins. Thunder and lightning continuing but less frequent. Still raining heavy.

Wertz

Lot of thundery noises coming from my SW (I'm in Dundalk), been pouring here for 3 hours or more since drying up after the earlier heavy rain...rain is easing now but thunder is getting louder...long rolls of it too. No lightning yet....radar is interesting.

[edit]
Huge intercloud strike just now, 7 seconds between the flash and the noise, showing up on snowbies storm vue about 10 miles south

DOCARCH

Deep Easterly wrote: »

47mm

OMG :eek:

Snowbie

Oh look blue sky overhead, typical.
Sheild holding.West is best again.:pac:

Deep Easterly

Snowbie wrote: »

Oh look blue sky overhead, typical.
Sheild holding.West is best again.

I wish you were here snowbie, I need someone to share the excitment with, everyone else in the house thinks I am mad!!!

49mm total from that shower, which brings my day total to 54.3mm. Thunder distant now, with rain easing. But seem to be another shower building over Tuam at the moment, hoping there is part 2 in a while!:)

Hal1

Congrats on the TS Deep Easterly, it finally arrived for you heh

Mothman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I wish you were here snowbie, I need someone to share the excitment with, everyone else in the house thinks I am mad!!!

49mm total from that shower, which brings my day total to 54.3mm. Thunder distant now, with rain easing. But seem to be another shower building over Tuam at the moment, hoping there is part 2 in a while!:)

There'll be a lot of flash flooding with a downpour like that. Would be good if you can get to see aftermath tomorrow (probably too late tonight.
Could warrant its own thread?

Snowbie

It's not finished yet Paddy. More showers as you said building over Clare/Galway and over Cork pushing NNE. In a clear dry slot and no signs of anything to come here untill maybe later?

Deep Easterly

Mothman wrote: »

There'll be a lot of flash flooding with a downpour like that. Would be good if you can get to see aftermath tomorrow (probably too late tonight.
Could warrant its own thread?

Back garden is a swimming pool at the moment, with the road out the front just simply a river during the downpour. Rain has started again, modestly.

Deep Easterly

Snowbie wrote: »

It's not finished yet Paddy. More showers as you said building over Clare/Galway and over Cork pushing NNE. In a clear dry slot and no signs of anything to come here untill maybe later?

Never say never, what position is that depression at the moment?, if it passed to the north of here in time, then the west flow afterwards could swing them showers your way. Pressure here is 999.4 mb and falling still.

Deep Easterly

Clouds breaking up to the south of me, but can see 2 distinct anvils in the clearence, roughly east of GAlway city. Can be seen on radar as the tail end of that mainband. Heading for N. Midlands later??



Edit. Clearence is revealing somecb's to my southwest now. they must be dead as there is nothing showing up on radar.

Deep Easterly

Another heavy shower just moved through here. I didn't observe any lightning but lights continue to flicker. As we get our electricity from Claremorris I would imagine there is lightning around that general direction somewhere.

robinph

dloob wrote: »

Really heavy rain here in Galway City with thunder.
I've never seen it so heavy :eek:

Dublin road flooded near merlin park hospital, a couple of inches near the hospital entrance.
Traffic is slowing down through it

Dunno what what the roads might be called, but passed this lake on my way into the pub in Galway earlier this evening:
Big puddle in road
Car driving through puddle

nacho libre

did you take some pictures paddy1?

rc28

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0622/weather.html
http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0621/weather.html

M.T. Cranium

Wed 26 June 08 _ 0900h (08 GMT)

Would be on the lookout for a gusty thunderstorm developing around Laois perhaps in an hour or so, could then affect southeast Ireland south of Dublin and east of Cork but mainly those areas inland from Laois to just southwest of Dublin on the current indications. May not be staying awake for it myself (it is only 0100 where I am). Good luck

Snowbie

That clump over Limerick pushing eastwards is intensifying alright.

Weather BOFH

Two rumbles out here in the last minute or so. Absolutly lashing down.

DOCARCH

Yeah nemonoid - I can hear thunder in the distance now and very black clouds to my west.

Snowbie

Weak storm just approaching Dublin atm. No thunder yet to be heard.

DOCARCH

Forked lightning right overhead here - was standing in the back garden looking - 1 second between lightning and thunder.

dathi1

feels like we just had a direct stirke in Firhouse

DominoDub

A flash or two in Dublin 4