Various Lisbon Questions

Daftendirekt

I understand that if Lisbon passes, there will be certain changes to the ways in which legislation can be passed. Am I right in thinking that if Lisbon passes, it will raise the minimum blocking minority to 35% (from 27% I think)? Also, do these percentages refer to population?

I was under the impression that if any four member states opposed any decision, it had to be scrapped. Is it sufficient for four member states to oppose a decision, or do these member states have to make up 35% of the EU population?

Is there any change to the voting weights of the member states? The referendum commission's website gives a table detailing how voting weights stand at present, but says nothing about how they'll change if Lisbon passes. I've heard that some of the bigger member states gain more voting power (Germany springs to mind). Is this true?

And finally (for now ) can anyone tell me how Ireland's voting power will be affected after taking into account the new requirements for legislation to pass (55% of member states must agree and these must make up 65% of the population) and any changes to vote weights?

Hopefully I've been pretty clear with what I'm asking here.

Thanks!

Scofflaw

This is from a long mathematical analysis of the change in influence in voting for all countries (by a No voter on politics.ie) - it's a measure of the loss of 'decisiveness', where your weight on the Council is the decisive factor in the vote:

Lose none
Germany: 1.0 -> 1.0

Lose around 20%
France: 1.0 -> 0.79

Lose around 25%
United Kingdom: 1.0 -> 0.75
Italy: 1.0 -> 0.74

Lose around 40%
Spain: 0.95 -> 0.57
Poland: 0.95 -> 0.49

Lose around 40%
Romania: 0.55 -> 0.36
Netherlands: 0.51 -> 0.30

Lose around 50%
Greece: 0.48 -> 0.24
Portugal: 0.48 -> 0.24
Belgium: 0.48 -> 0.24
Czech Republic: 0.48 -> 0.23
Hungary: 0.48 -> 0.23

Lose around 50%
Sweden: 0.40 -> 0.22
Austria: 0.40 -> 0.21
Bulgaria: 0.40 -> 0.20

Lose around 40%
Denmark: 0.28 -> 0.18
Slovakia: 0.28 -> 0.18
Finland: 0.28 -> 0.18
Ireland: 0.28 -> 0.17
Lithuania: 0.28 -> 0.16

Lose 0-20%
Latvia: 0.16 -> 0.15
Slovenia: 0.16 -> 0.15
Estonia: 0.16 -> 0.14
Cyprus 0.16 -> 0.13
Luxembourg: 0.16->0.13
Malta: 0.12 -> 0.13

That's relative to Germany, so, for Ireland compared to all other countries:

We lose influence (relative) compared to:

Germany (61% of former relative influence)
France (77% of former relative influence)
UK (81% of former relative influence)
Italy (82% of former relative influence)
Romania (93% of former relative influence)
Denmark, Slovakia, Finland (94% of former relative influence)
Latvia, Slovenia (65% of former relative influence)
Estonia (69% of former relative influence)
Cyprus, Luxembourg (75% of former relative influence)
Malta (56% of former relative influence)

And gain influence compared to:

Spain (101% of former relative influence)
Poland (118% of former relative influence)
Netherlands (103% of former relative influence)
Greece, Portugal, Belgium (121% of former relative influence)
Czech Republic, Hungary (127% of former relative influence)
Sweden (110% of former relative influence)
Austria (116% of former relative influence)
Bulgaria (121% of former relative influence)
Lithuania (106% of former relative influence)

That's based on a comparison of our influence compared to Germany to theirs compared to Germany under old and new systems.

And in summary:

We lose ability to pass policies we want (-6%)
We gain blocking power (+6%)
We are less decisive (-36%)

I'll add that QMV voting is only actually used about a quarter of the time where QMV actually applies - and usually it's just to mark someone's opposition rather than being a real vote. The Council usually operates by consensus.

cordially,
Scofflaw

5h4mr0(k

The one vote that will be lost, if it is passed, is your own.

The government are sneaking in a change to the constitution so that if this one is passed, they won't have to have a referendum on future EU treaties.
http://inanerambings.blogspot.com/2008/06/sneaking-under-lisbon-treaty-radar.html

oscarBravo

That blog post you've linked is completely and totally factually inaccurate.

molloyjh

5h4mr0(k wrote: »

The one vote that will be lost, if it is passed, is your own.

The government are sneaking in a change to the constitution so that if this one is passed, they won't have to have a referendum on future EU treaties.
http://inanerambings.blogspot.com/2008/06/sneaking-under-lisbon-treaty-radar.html

That is not the case at all. The change you are talking about will allow the EU to make certain amendments to the treaty itself without having to go to each member state for approval. However if the changes require an amendment to our constitution then they will still require a referendum. Its there to ensure that there is no need to ratify the treaty again and again over small changes, like adding new members etc. It has no impact on other treaties at all.

Daftendirekt

Thanks Scofflaw, that's exactly what I was looking for.

Think that pretty much covers my last two questions, can anyone give me some clarification on the requirements to block legislation (four member states or four member states making up 35% of the population)?

Daftendirekt

molloyjh wrote: »

That is not the case at all. The change you are talking about will allow the EU to make certain amendments to the treaty itself without having to go to each member state for approval. However if the changes require an amendment to our constitution then they will still require a referendum. Its there to ensure that there is no need to ratify the treaty again and again over small changes, like adding new members etc. It has no impact on other treaties at all.

Yeah. What he said. :pac:

Scofflaw

Daftendirekt wrote: »

Thanks Scofflaw, that's exactly what I was looking for.

Think that pretty much covers my last two questions, can anyone give me some clarification on the requirements to block legislation (four member states or four member states making up 35% of the population)?

Sorry - should have covered that! Minimum of 4 member states to block, comprising at least 35% of the population.

cordially,
Scofflaw

spank_inferno

just wondering....
I havent received a polling card.
I may do so next week, but if I dont can I still vote?

I checked the electoral register online and am definetly registered

many thanks

Scofflaw

spank_inferno wrote: »

just wondering....
I havent received a polling card.
I may do so next week, but if I dont can I still vote?

I checked the electoral register online and am definetly registered

many thanks

I think you can - I seem to remember doing this on at least one occasion, although you'll need full ID (something with a picture and proof of address).

cordially,
Scofflaw