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What should Brian Cowen do now?

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  • 16-06-2008 11:52pm
    #1
    VoidStarNull
    Closed Accounts Posts: 148 ✭✭


    It looks like the other member states are going to continue with the ratification process, at least for now. They've put the ball back on Biffo's side of the court. What do you think his response should be?

    1. Insist that Ireland will not ratify and therefore the treaty is dead. Force others to respond.
    2. Ask for some (presumably limited) bilateral opt-outs that he can take back to the people in a Lisbon II referendum.
    3. Offer to voluntarily allow the other governments to put Lisbon into force, leaving Ireland behind but presumably with some concessions for us.
    4. Play for time .. maybe another state will reject the treaty.
    5. Other?

    And how do you think other states will respond?


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    #2
    zig
    Registered Users Posts: 1,206 ✭✭✭zig


    VoidStarNull wrote: »
    It looks like the other member states are going to continue with the ratification process, at least for now. They've put the ball back on Biffo's side of the court. What do you think his response should be?

    1. Insist that Ireland will not ratify and therefore the treaty is dead. Force others to respond.
    2. Ask for some (presumably limited) bilateral opt-outs that he can take back to the people in a Lisbon II referendum.
    3. Offer to voluntarily allow the other governments to put Lisbon into force, leaving Ireland behind but presumably with some concessions for us.
    4. Play for time .. maybe another state will reject the treaty.
    5. Other?

    And how do you think other states will respond?

    1. almost definitely not
    2. the most likely option, but there will probably be little opt outs, more veto power perhaps,the whole process will be just an excuse to build the yes momentum up again for a second referendum, i.e. a sort of "the no people have there way, we got a better deal so lets all rush to the booths and vote YES" campaign
    3.I dont know if thats even possible, if it is thats what he will be pressured to do by the rest of Europe, he wont really be offering anything then though will he:D
    4. Perhaps, but there seems to be alot of confidence that every state will ratify, so Id say this summit will be concentrating on ideas of how to win the irish over.
    5. Your guess is as good as mine.


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    #3
    SkepticOne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,718 ✭✭✭SkepticOne


    Cowen has said on the Radio on Sunday that he will be trying to make it so that Ireland is not the only country not ratifying the treaty. I think he realises that another referendum would be political suicide.

    The other states: a huge effort to make sure Cowen does not succeed and that Ireland is indeed the only one not ratifying the treaty. It is going to get dirty.

    If it turns out that Ireland is the only non-ratifier then the bullying and cajoling will occur by various figures of the EU establishment. This, of course, will have the opposite effect to that intended.


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    #4
    VoidStarNull
    Closed Accounts Posts: 148 ✭✭VoidStarNull


    SkepticOne wrote: »
    If it turns out that Ireland is the only non-ratifier then the bullying and cajoling will occur by various figures of the EU establishment.


    It seems that you are still out campaigning for a NO :)

    I suggest replacing "EU establishment" with "other member state governments".
    Brian Cowen will be dealing with them on that basis, after all.


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    #5
    marco_polo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,079 Mod ✭✭✭✭marco_polo


    VoidStarNull wrote: »
    It seems that you are still out campaigning for a NO :)

    I suggest replacing "EU establishment" with "other member state governments".
    Brian Cowen will be dealing with them on that basis, after all.

    Not scary enough. :).


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    #6
    Lemming
    Registered Users Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    VoidStarNull wrote: »
    1. Insist that Ireland will not ratify and therefore the treaty is dead. Force others to respond.

    He doesn't have to insist. It was stated in black & white by the EU itself that all 27 member states must ratify unanimously for the Lisbon treaty to proceed.
    3. Offer to voluntarily allow the other governments to put Lisbon into force, leaving Ireland behind but presumably with some concessions for us.

    TBH, the calls for a "two-tier" EU are rather blinkered. As someone else put it (I can't recall if it was a comment on boards or a comment against a BBC article), you can opt out of the Euro but you can't opt out of QVM or loss of a Commisioner.

    As SkepticOne commented, it's all going to get dirty I suspect.


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    #7
    SkepticOne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,718 ✭✭✭SkepticOne


    VoidStarNull wrote: »
    It seems that you are still out campaigning for a NO :)
    Actually I didn't do any campaigninng before the referendum apart from, briefly, a quote from Giscard D'Estaing in my sig who, as we know, is very much in favour of a yes result.:D


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    #8
    sink
    Registered Users Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    SkepticOne wrote: »
    Actually I didn't do any campaigninng before the referendum apart from, briefly, a quote from Giscard D'Estaing in my sig who, as we know, is very much in favour of a yes result.:D

    That quote was taken out of context. He was criticizing the Lisbon treaty as hew thought the Constitution was far superior, specifically that it was easier to read.


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