why so afraid to go it alone

democrates

The Corinthian wrote: »

Except we'd be bluffing in such a negotiation. We need the EU market a lot more than it needs us, and everyone knows this.

I'm not suggesting we try to overplay our hand as that would backfire in the long term, just that we realise we've a good hand and can negotiate a fair deal.

whitser

but what if before they headed out they said they all had to agree or else the night out was scrapped. then one said no, the others said well actually we're going anyway.

whitser

if we have something other states want they'll do business. and i think we have.

democrates

IRLConor wrote: »

Compare and contrast the following two scenarios:

1. 27 people heading for a night out. 26 want to go to the cinema, 1 wants to go to the pub. Result: the pub-goer gets told "fair enough if you don't want the cinema, but we're going there. Your choice if you want to join us."
2. 27 people heading for a night out. 26 want to go to the cinema, 1 wants to go to the pub. The pub-goer has the keys to the bus. Result: negotiation.

We don't have the keys to the bus. Not even close.


There's absolutely no point in us leaving the EU and staying in the EEA. We'd lose loads of the benefits of EU membership without gaining much.

Tell me you won't be negotiating for us, I like a nights sleep .
As for the bus scenario, we can't drink and drive so it'll have to be the cinema.
Seriously though, the whole point of independance is that we don't have to be on the bus, if we have our own car we can choose our own journey. I know, "we're on a road to nowhere" as far as the doom scenario goes, but I don't buy that option as being our only choice.

ejmaztec

whitser wrote: »

if we have something other states want they'll do business. and i think we have.

If Ireland were a land-locked nation in the middle of Europe, then you would probably be right. As it is an island on the extremities, miles away from where the action is, the EU countries would not wish to incur the extra costs of importing goods the distance from Ireland. Any goods or services that Ireland has can be gotten far cheaper elsewhere.

A few years down the line and they wouldn't even waste ink putting Ireland on a map.

Boggle

Does anyone really hink that our expulsion as it were from the EU would not have dire consequences?
Firstly, Britain wouldn't last 5 minutes as the public over there hate the EU (generally).
Secondly smaller states would finally realise that vetoes mean squat as its always gonna be a "my way or the high way" mentality.
Thirdly, I don't believe the public in any of the eu nations really want more than to be part of a common market and our expulsion may underline the dictatorial nature of the market.

I can see why politicians would want it (they get to levy any unpopular taxes or regulations and just point to the EU) but what kind of idiotic public would want that?

daheff

Ok, just a couple of points

1 The Lisbon treaty says that it must be ratified by all 27 members. All 27 members agreed to this and were aware that if 1 said no it then it couldnt be ratified. The whole issue of not welcoming somebody who said no is disgraceful to say the least.
2 The EU are aware that we must have a referendum on any constitutional issue.

Suggesting/hinting that we should leave the EU because we (the people) dont agree to the treaty is beyond a joke. This can and will be resolved amicably between the EU countries and we wont be leaving the EU.

there were no suggestions that France, Holland would be leaving the EU when the EU constitution was rejected or Denmark (or even ourselves) when Nice was rejected...why now?

marco_polo

whitser wrote: »

if we have something other states want they'll do business. and i think we have.

Is it a secret or something?

hmmm

Boggle wrote: »

Does anyone really hink that our expulsion as it were from the EU would not have dire consequences?
Firstly, Britain wouldn't last 5 minutes as the public over there hate the EU (generally).
Secondly smaller states would finally realise that vetoes mean squat as its always gonna be a "my way or the high way" mentality.
Thirdly, I don't believe the public in any of the eu nations really want more than to be part of a common market and our expulsion may underline the dictatorial nature of the market.

And what happens if your instincts turn out to be wrong? Do we beg to be left back in? Do we get on the boat (oops can't do that any more we're outside the common travel area). What's your plan B?

hmmm

daheff wrote: »

there were no suggestions that France, Holland would be leaving the EU when the EU constitution was rejected or Denmark (or even ourselves) when Nice was rejected...why now?

Because this is the second EU treaty we've rejected and the second time Ireland has thrown the EU into chaos, despite our negotiators getting practically everything they wanted. Despite all the bleating from the no side about "this not being a vote against Europe" this is how it is perceived and some want rid of us. Allied to that you have France and Holland seen as "core" European countries whereas Ireland is the peripheral island nation which was practically untouched by two devastating world wars. We are full of our own self importance.

IRLConor

democrates wrote: »

Tell me you won't be negotiating for us, I like a nights sleep .

You can sleep easy.

democrates wrote: »

As for the bus scenario, we can't drink and drive so it'll have to be the cinema.

OK, so the example was flawed. The point still stands though. What do we have in bargaining leverage with the EU over the Lisbon treaty? We need them a hell of a lot more than they need us.

whitser

marco_polo wrote: »

Is it a secret or something?

no just saying that just cos we werent in the eu doesnt mean our products wouldnt be sought after. eu does business with norway and swiss.

seamus

IRLConor wrote: »

OK, so the example was flawed.

Actually, the example was good and can be extended further. We can choose to get off the bus if we wish and drive our car. But then we don't get a say in where the bus goes, all we get to do is follow it in our car. We also miss out on the craic on the bus.

If we choose to not follow the bus, we're in for a **** time on our own.

marco_polo

whitser wrote: »

no just saying that just cos we werent in the eu doesnt mean our products wouldnt be sought after. eu does business with norway and swiss.

Which highly sought after products are you talking about? Do you know anything about the nature of our economy at all?

whitser

farm products,fisheries gas,jobs and generally everything we sell now will still be there to sell. maybe think ireland hasnt much to offer i disagree. this talking down of ireland that we'd be lost without the eu,i dont buy it.

marco_polo

whitser wrote: »

farm products,fisheries gas,jobs and generally everything we sell now will still be there to sell. maybe think ireland hasnt much to offer i disagree. this talking down of ireland that we'd be lost without the eu,i dont buy it.

Ok so that is 5% of our total GDP. Jobs isn't a product btw, it a byproduct of a succesful and thriving economy. What of the other 95% of GDP? Openess is critical to the prosperity of a small economy such as ours that is driven in the main part by services, not manufacturing and certainly not fishing or agriculture.

El Stuntman

whitser wrote: »

farm products,fisheries gas,jobs and generally everything we sell now will still be there to sell. maybe think ireland hasnt much to offer i disagree. this talking down of ireland that we'd be lost without the eu,i dont buy it.

farm products; we won't be selling to the EU. Who exactly is going to buy our overpriced foodstuffs?

fisheries: not much fish left in case you hadn't noticed

gas: we have feck all of it, we are an importer of all natural resources

jobs: brilliant! we'll just sell our people!!! why didn't somebody think of this before? :rolleyes:

see Albania? That's us, outside the EU

seamus

whitser wrote: »

farm products,fisheries

Debatable really, and as was pointed out to you earlier, we don't have infinite fish in the ocean. We're not even all that plentiful

gas

Don't have much of this either

jobs

How do you sell "jobs"? Perhaps you mean that we have an educated workforce? This is true, but we're not special. A company could move to the UK to get a similarly well-educated workforce and maintain their free access to the EU market.

generally everything we sell now will still be there to sell

Not if the companies pull out. Some of our buggest exports, notably computer/technology hardware and software, as well as chemicals and pharmaceuticals are almost exclusively made here by foreign companies. If they pulled out, we'd be boned.

How many engineers working from Wyeth would get alternative employment in Galtee meats?
How many software developers from Sage will your average farm need?

SkepticOne

daheff wrote: »

there were no suggestions that France, Holland would be leaving the EU when the EU constitution was rejected or Denmark (or even ourselves) when Nice was rejected...why now?

I think the fudamental reason is this: certain countries like France, Germany and some other countries are central to the very idea of Europe. Ireland is not merely peripheral in a geographical sense, Ireland is peripheral to the idea of Europe.

whitser

look what im saying is we have plenty to offer. and it possible to do business with our neighbours. theres plenty off gas out there other wise shell wouldnt be there. our waters have been over fished by other countries because we had to allow them in.
so basically you feel that if it wasnt for the eu ireland would still be in the forties. i disagree. the eu has been good but it hasnt been one way traffic. and i'd would rather stay in the eu but not in the direction its going. why cant it be based on co-operation and a open market instead of going towards some sort of federal united states. if it keeps going that way we should consider pulling out. if we dont leave ourselfs that option we might as well just do what we're told by brussells.

whitser

seamus wrote: »

Debatable really, and as was pointed out to you earlier, we don't have infinite fish in the ocean. We're not even all that plentiful
Don't have much of this either
How do you sell "jobs"? Perhaps you mean that we have an educated workforce? This is true, but we're not special. A company could move to the UK to get a similarly well-educated workforce and maintain their free access to the EU market.
Not if the companies pull out. Some of our buggest exports, notably computer/technology hardware and software, as well as chemicals and pharmaceuticals are almost exclusively made here by foreign companies. If they pulled out, we'd be boned.

How many engineers working from Wyeth would get alternative employment in Galtee meats?
How many software developers from Sage will your average farm need?

i feel that if the political will was there we could do well. but its a lot easier for our politcians to take the money from the eu and keep shut and do what they're told. who's to say these companys wont pull out anyway,they already are and going to cheaper work forces in the eu.

hmmm

whitser wrote: »

look what im saying is we have plenty to offer. and it possible to do business with our neighbours. theres plenty off gas out there other wise shell wouldnt be there. our waters have been over fished by other countries because we had to allow them in.

A few fish and gas we haven't found is your plan to replace our multinationals and to prop up our farmers incomes?

What's stopping us from pulling out? No-one can force us to stay in the EU, why the paranoia?

marco_polo

whitser wrote: »

look what im saying is we have plenty to offer. and it possible to do business with our neighbours. theres plenty off gas out there other wise shell wouldnt be there. our waters have been over fished by other countries because we had to allow them in.
so basically you feel that if it wasnt for the eu ireland would still be in the forties. i disagree. the eu has been good but it hasnt been one way traffic. and i'd would rather stay in the eu but not in the direction its going. why cant it be based on co-operation and a open market instead of going towards some sort of federal united states. if it keeps going that way we should consider pulling out. if we dont leave ourselfs that option we might as well just do what we're told by brussells.

The Corrib gas field has aprojected lifespan of about 10-15 years and is only about 2/3rds the size of our the Kinsale fields. It has the potential to reudce our dependance on imported gas from over 80% to about 50% for a few years when it is at peak capacity that is all. We currently import most of our gas from Russia like the rest of the EU, which is why the collective energy provisions in the Lisbon Treaty are important.

whitser wrote: »

i feel that if the political will was there we could do well. but its a lot easier for our politcians to take the money from the eu and keep shut and do what they're told. who's to say these companys wont pull out anyway,they already are and going to cheaper work forces in the eu.

We are a net contributor to the EU now. Also there is nothing to stop any company from pulling out of Ireland at any time, but I don't see how that is an arguement in support of your position. I would suggest there is definately no sense in us showing them the door first by withdrawing from the EU.

whitser

i havent got a plan what im saying is do we just put up and shut up or should we consider opting out an making alliances with other countries out of the eu like norway and swiss etc...i dont actually mean do everthing ourselves.
these muti nationals are already starting to pull out. theres cheaper workforces in the eu. and once theres same tax regs all over the eu we'll be ****ed. i dont think we'll have to leave the eu will go on without us and leave us behind so it'll be a case of having to grow ourselves. do you really feel that we havent a chance without brussells?

The Corinthian

democrates wrote: »

Switzerland has a highly protected agricultural sector but very open trade on industrial goods, amazing what having a choice can do, and they've chosen a system that works for them.

Except we don't do industrial goods and the EU does not need our agricultural ones.

democrates wrote: »

I'm not suggesting we try to overplay our hand as that would backfire in the long term, just that we realise we've a good hand and can negotiate a fair deal.

Except we don't have a good hand.

whitser wrote: »

look what im saying is we have plenty to offer.

Unfortunately you've failed to explain what. The fact that you listed jobs as something we have to offer simply demonstrates your lack of understanding.

so basically you feel that if it wasnt for the eu ireland would still be in the forties. i disagree.

The access to market and structural funds that came from the EU are pretty well documented as significant factors in the Celtic Tiger. Without them we could have invited all the international investment we wanted, but we simply would not have been an attractive enough place to set up shop.

Of course you disagree. Please feel free to back up why you disagree. Is it that we would have magically become successful all on our own?

and i'd would rather stay in the eu but not in the direction its going. why cant it be based on co-operation and a open market instead of going towards some sort of federal united states.

That's not an economic argument it is a political, indeed nationalist, one. It would appear that ultimately this is your motivation, rather than an economic one - which explains why your economic arguments are so weak.

hmmm

whitser wrote: »

do you really feel that we havent a chance without brussells?

I don't think you've grasped the idea of access to markets. Free trade between countries only exists where they agree to do so. You can't just sell into another country at the price you want, you have to negotiate access and the other country will slap large tariffs on your goods if they don't like you. You can't simply pull out of the EU and continue selling into the EU as if nothing has changed.

whitser

The Corinthian wrote: »

Except we don't do industrial goods and the EU does not need our agricultural ones.

Except we don't have a good hand.

Unfortunately you've failed to explain what. The fact that you listed jobs as something we have to offer simply demonstrates your lack of understanding.

The access to market and structural funds that came from the EU are pretty well documented as significant factors in the Celtic Tiger. Without them we could have invited all the international investment we wanted, but we simply would not have been an attractive enough place to set up shop.

Of course you disagree. Please feel free to back up why you disagree. Is it that we would have magically become successful all on our own?

That's not an economic argument it is a political, indeed nationalist, one. It would appear that ultimately this is your motivation, rather than an economic one - which explains why your economic arguments are so weak.

im not coming from a nationalistic point of view. i feel the eu has been good for ireland and vise versa but i dont want to live in a federal eu. a lot of people feel the same, no vote shows a lot of uncertainty about the direction of the eu. so if ireland doesnt want to be part of that it has to be prepared to make its own way. this is all imo,im not politician. but i've seen that the eu has no respect for ireland by its treatment of our vote and i feel that it simply wants us to do what we're told.

The Corinthian

whitser wrote: »

i havent got a plan

Well that pretty much explains where you're coming from. You don't like the idea of the European Union for political reasons. The problem is that you're not suggesting a viable alternative - indeed, your responses to date indicate that you have a very limited understanding of the economic factors.

FYI, nationalism based upon 'gut feeling' and little or no reason to back it up is called jingoism.

whitser

also i feel my view point doesnt matter because this treaty will be forced down our necks one way or another and that angers me.
also is it definite that the remaining countries will ratifie this treaty?

The Corinthian

whitser wrote: »

im not coming from a nationalistic point of view. i feel the eu has been good for ireland and vise versa but i dont want to live in a federal eu.

That's called a nationalist point of view.

this is all imo,im not politician.

You're also not an economist.