why so afraid to go it alone

democrates

IRLConor wrote: »

Fair enough then, I'm just highly sceptical of your

democrates wrote:

Besides, in the long term open source online is continuing to gain ground

comment. Sure, it's growing, but there isn't nearly enough money in it to replace all of the tech jobs in Ireland.

Sure enough, if IBM, Google, Microsoft, SAP, Salesforce.com &c. pulled out in quick succession it'd be 80's brain drain 2.0.

That said, look at how quickly a bebo, amazon, google etc can come out of nowhere. That's the oppertunity we should be chasing big time, our universities need to pump out graduates expert at deploying scalable online systems, and if the market won't deliver the hosting at the right price because they're chasing value added fat margins then the government can tender for provision of what should be a contemporary utility.

IRLConor wrote: »

I doubt there'd be much in the way of negotiation. We have very little to offer that they don't already have or can get cheaper from elsewhere.

The negotiation has already begun, looks like they're hoping for a yes to Lisbon II, if that gets rejected too only time will tell how well our guys play our cards.

IRLConor

democrates wrote: »

That said, look at how quickly a bebo, amazon, google etc can come out of nowhere. That's the oppertunity we should be chasing big time, our universities need to pump out graduates expert at deploying scalable online systems, and if the market won't deliver the hosting at the right price because they're chasing value added fat margins then the government can tender for provision of what should be a contemporary utility.

IMO, the main drivers of the likes of Bebo/Amazon/Google are the ready supply of VC, a willingness to fail and the optimism that you're not going to.

Having seen the tech industry both here and in California, the workforce isn't massively different in terms of skills. The attitude towards startups is quite different though. If I had a euro for everyone here who said "fair play for starting your own company, I could never do that" then I wouldn't be looking for a job now.

democrates wrote: »

The negotiation has already begun, looks like they're hoping for a yes to Lisbon II,

Hmm, must dust off my ear defenders. The whining from the "multiple referenda are undemocratic" crowd will be unbearable.

hmmm

democrates wrote: »

That said, look at how quickly a bebo, amazon, google etc can come out of nowhere.

Earlier on this thread it was said that one of the reasons we could pull out was because of the gas reserves we might have. You're saying we could pull out because we might be able to create new startup Internet companies.

Gas reserves we haven't found and companies we don't have doesn't strike me as a particularly strong economic platform for our continued economic success.

democrates

IRLConor wrote: »

IMO, the main drivers of the likes of Bebo/Amazon/Google are the ready supply of VC, a willingness to fail and the optimism that you're not going to.

Having seen the tech industry both here and in California, the workforce isn't massively different in terms of skills. The attitude towards startups is quite different though. If I had a euro for everyone here who said "fair play for starting your own company, I could never do that" then I wouldn't be looking for a job now.

I'm jealous, never got to Silicon Valley, I'd say that was a great experience.

We've a way to go for sure, and I can't help thinking the Yosser Hughes "gi's a job" culture is not being tackled well enough by the government, we still have an ed system that prepares the masses for life as an employee, as if the old idea that entrepreneurs are born, not made, still informs the design of the junior and senior cycle curricula.

Here in Dun Laoghaire the council, having had their privatisation of the sandycove foreshore rejected by mass marches, are gung-ho to spend a fortune there anyway. All they have to do is bring back the baths, and even that isn't strictly a necessity given things are set to tighten further.

Instead of chomping at the bit to lavish contracts on established players, more should go into the business incubator facilities, and there are heaps of other things that would better promote long-term prospects, but that's not an easy spend like "development", you have to think about it.

IRLConor wrote: »

Hmm, must dust off my ear defenders. The whining from the "multiple referenda are undemocratic" crowd will be unbearable.

Lol, I think a fair point though is that framing the question is where it starts, but like "Jesus, or Barrabas" the expected answer isn't always forthcoming.

Crash

A lot of the economic arguments here and their naivety is unbelievable. Having recently had a long conversation with my father, who works in Bord Bia, and previously in Córas Tráchtála, there is a HUGE level of fear and uncertainty in the dairy export industry over this, the effect it will have, and the possible further effects of actions taken like as a result,as well as most other agricultural sectors.

Though the other thing he did point out was that the one thing that would come out of it is that a bit of a further drop in the euro will have trade ministers across the EU secretly in love with us for what it'll do to the export industry :P

democrates

hmmm wrote: »

Earlier on this thread it was said that one of the reasons we could pull out was because of the gas reserves we might have. You're saying we could pull out because we might be able to create new startup Internet companies.

Gas reserves we haven't found and companies we don't have doesn't strike me as a particularly strong economic platform for our continued economic success.

I'm saying we may see potential resource discoveries, that's not a foundation but a possibility.

Something I can be certain of is the untapped human capital in this country, but a better tomorrow sure won't come from a doom and gloom attitude of falling into despair if life isn't handed to one on a plate, it will come from adopting the positive entreprenurial spirit - see the potential, get to work, and make it happen "Where's that guy gone!" .

democrates

crash_000 wrote: »

A lot of the economic arguments here and their naivety is unbelievable. Having recently had a long conversation with my father, who works in Bord Bia, and previously in Córas Tráchtála, there is a HUGE level of fear and uncertainty in the dairy export industry over this, the effect it will have, and the possible further effects of actions taken like as a result,as well as most other agricultural sectors.

Of course there's fear, that's guaranteed as a result of uncertainty, which is a temporary situation until this issue is settled. In light of uncertainty, there is inevitably speculation as to what might happen under various scenarios, since none can be proven it's very easy to dismiss them out of hand as naive, less easy to prove that to be the case.
Your point on the exchange rate is well taken nonetheless.

IRLConor

democrates wrote: »

I'm jealous, never got to Silicon Valley, I'd say that was a great experience.

It had its ups and downs. If you're curious, PM me for details, it's well off-topic.

democrates wrote: »

We've a way to go for sure, and I can't help thinking the Yosser Hughes "gi's a job" culture is not being tackled well enough by the government, we still have an ed system that prepares the masses for life as an employee, as if the old idea that entrepreneurs are born, not made, still informs the design of the junior and senior cycle curricula.

I don't know if the problem can be tackled in the education system. There's a lot of it that is deeply cultural.

democrates wrote: »

Instead of chomping at the bit to lavish contracts on established players, more should go into the business incubator facilities, and there are heaps of other things that would better promote long-term prospects, but that's not an easy spend like "development", you have to think about it.

Hopefully the silver lining in the cloud of the recent downturn will be that the government spends smarter, not harder. Granted, we didn't depend much on local/government grants but the little bit we saw of it wasn't fantastically useful. In our case it was cheaper, faster and less work to get money from a bank.

democrates wrote: »

Lol, I think a fair point though is that framing the question is where it starts, but like "Jesus, or Barrabas" the expected answer isn't always forthcoming.

I guess I'm just pissed off that we ended up at this point in the first place. If the main yes campaigners did a proper job we wouldn't be in this position.

extragon

Whitser's understanding of the EU, and economics, is probably no different from tens of thousands who voted NO. And it is pointless to argue against it. It is a romantic/emotional vision of "independence" that will twist and turn and will never lie down.
The pity is that, in counterbalance, so little weight was given to a vision of Europe - a democratic "common European home" for EU citizens, in Lisbon, or in the original constitution. ( vote for an EU president, anyone? )

Practical minded people will always vote rationally, in their economic interest. But the argument for integration is lost in Europe because much of it is directed to appease those who will always vote NO.

ionix5891

The Corinthian wrote: »

You can't suggest that

What you'll get if you do that is the same Eurosceptics who complain about the Brussels elite will turn to bleat about national sovereignty. It's not really about economics or democracy - it's all about petty nationalism.

your being to "elitist" for our little brains

democrates wrote: »

That said, look at how quickly a bebo, amazon, google etc can come out of nowhere. That's the oppertunity we should be chasing big time, our universities need to pump out graduates expert at deploying scalable online systems,

none are native Irish companies as such,

speaking of scaling [I was never taught anything about that in the IT degree course in the uni back in the day btw ] I had to learn a lot of that as i went while running several huge sites

below is the alexa page (i removed the full names as we wish to remain anonymous) view graph of 4 of our larger sites that we (well mostly me) custom coded and currently maintain compared in size to boards.ie


i hate the word web 2.0 by the way, it sucks and is just another bubble waiting to burst

to get back to the topic at hand. a lot of tech/Internet based companies don't have an awful lot holding them in one place as they can as easily do their job from another country, the "googles" in this country can pack shop tomorrow and leaving the EU doesn't leave many reasons to stay

democrates

extragon wrote: »

Whitser's understanding of the EU, and economics, is probably no different from tens of thousands who voted NO. And it is pointless to argue against it. It is a romantic/emotional vision of "independence" that will twist and turn and will never lie down.
The pity is that, in counterbalance, so little weight was given to a vision of Europe - a democratic "common European home" for EU citizens, in Lisbon, or in the original constitution. ( vote for an EU president, anyone? )

Practical minded people will always vote rationally, in their economic interest. But the argument for integration is lost in Europe because much of it is directed to appease those who will always vote NO.

I strongly doubt that the most vociferous no campaign groups were representative of the majority of no voters, and I see my own rationale as being quite marginal.

By articulating positions, Libertas, Coir etc. gave a lot of no voters something tangible to attach their unease to, and certainly that's what they're going to say on camera in the street as opposed to "there are too many immigrants taking our jobs", which I believe is the major fear. We've all heard it "I'm not racist but...". The irony is that if we'd done a France and Germany and had less immigration, we might have had less but more stable growth, and a yes to Lisbon.

kevteljeur

It depresses me to think that in a time of economic uncertainty that there are people here who honestly think that a small, physically isolated country can survive independantly. It boggles the mind. Imagine re-negotiating access to the EU markets - make no mistake, these EU leaders are as human as you or I, and as given to holding a grudge as anyone here. They'll say no, on principle.

kevteljeur

And in reply to the people who are willing to sacrifice Ireland's shaky but servicable economy in return for some idea of national independence or soveriegnty, I'll re-post some of what I posted elsewhere today:

Here's a link that everyone should have a read of; it won't be readily apparent what the relevence is, but essentially it's about the fallout from the Suez Crisis, an event that barely touched Ireland (it overlooks the Benelux arrangement too, which I believe was the model of the EEC).

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006...egypt.ianblack

In a nutshell, this is how the EU got started, and goes a long way to explaining why France and Germany are so protective of the Big Project. Together we stand, divided we fall, and they've never forgotten that.

Now, the basic premise there is that small countries don't get a say in anything, unless they have something that is too much trouble to take by force. Or they can stick together, and in combination have a great strength together. Bear with me, I'm being patronising but I'm not sure everyone here is on-side. The problem with having a number of small countries shaking hands and agreeing to work together is that they're petty, and all too human, and you get situations such as the EU having to deal with Silvio Berlusconi, Jorg Haider or the delightful Kaczyński twins. It might be better to streamline things, particularly for defence, so that it is possible to make fast, unified decisions, which can be acted on quickly. And if you think that's a bad idea, then you need to go and stand in the center of Mostar, and ask yourself if that might not have happened with a European Defence Force.

If anyone here thinks that Ireland is truly neutral and that a common defence policy is impinging on our soveriegnty or neutrality, then explain Shannon to me. You need your head examined. We are a mercenary nation, get over it.

ionix5891

kevteljeur wrote: »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006...egypt.ianblack.

your link got mangled somehow

but thanks to google i think this is the link
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/jul/13/egypt.ianblack

kevteljeur

ionix5891 wrote: »

your link got mangled somehow

but thanks to google i think this is the link
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2006/jul/13/egypt.ianblack

Thanks! Not sure how that happened, but hopefully it'll fill in the blanks for anyone who thinks independence in the New World Order is actually a good thing; this was the moment when France and Germany realised who their friends really were. Of course, they were up to no good at the time but that's another story.

whitser

seamus wrote: »

How are they "making decisions for us", and how do you propose that they're going to force us to implement the treaty?

You're imagining that somehow politicians are an entirely different breed of humans, who were born into political life and didn't have to do anything to get into power. And you're also imagining that somehow they have the power to dictate to us without consequence.

You do understand the whole point of democracy?

i dont understant democracy? then why will we have to vote again on a treaty we rejected until they get the result they want. IS THAT DEMOCRATIC?
this treaty will get passed one way or another,i've no doubt about that. it was supposed to be an one out all out agreement but despite being rejected by the people of 3 countries its still being ratified. so they are making the desicion on the treaty for us. they wont roll they tanks in but they'll use veiled threats of economic doom and isolation. and our weakling politcians wont stand up and fight our corner.
did you see biffo in the summit on the news. he looked like a little lost child waiting on a bollocking for running off.

Kev_ps3

whitser wrote: »

why are people so afraid of ireland going it alone?
we have an educated young work force, rich fishing grounds, best farming land and products in the eu, we've plenty of gas and im sure theres oil out there too. we've wind power,peat,forestry etc...
i feel that ireland is talking its self down when it comes to the eu and its pay masters. we shouldnt be afraid to say no. theres life outside the eu.

Some liberals like to play this country down and think we cant do it on our own. The fact is we could well be better off on our own.

seamus

whitser wrote: »

i dont understant democracy? then why will we have to vote again on a treaty we rejected until they get the result they want. IS THAT DEMOCRATIC?

It's perfectly democratic. "Undemocratic" would be going ahead without the public's vote or even worse, ignoring the public's vote.

Asking the public to vote again, and respecting the outcome of that vote each time, is perfectly democratic.

these EU leaders are as human as you or I, and as given to holding a grudge as anyone here. They'll say no, on principle.

I tend to be in agreement. At least for a short period, we'd be hung out to dry. Particularly with our low corporate tax rate, we'd have fairly hefty levies applied to our exports, so that doing business from Ireland works out marginally less profitable than from inside the EU.

Kev_ps3

seamus wrote: »

It's perfectly democratic. "Undemocratic" would be going ahead without the public's vote or even worse, ignoring the public's vote.

Asking the public to vote again, and respecting the outcome of that vote each time, is perfectly democratic.

Just shows what a farce democracy is then.
If there was a yes vote would they ask us again? The whole thing is a farce and the people asking for another vote dont know the meaning of democracy.

force eleven

If it is a gun to the head situation, and there is a second referendum, it will basically become a battleground between pro EU and anti EU sides. It will be ugly, bitter and truth on both sides will be the first casualty. Frankly, if it came to that I would definitley vote No again, we should not be afraid to show how democracy works to Brussels.

marco_polo

Kev_ps3 wrote: »

Some liberals like to play this country down and think we cant do it on our own. The fact is we could well be better off on our own.

Still waiting to hear how you propose we would replace all the jobs the economy would lose in Financial Services, Pharamaceuticals and IT. Would there be a couple of hundred thousand jobs for everyone in Killybegs gutting fish.

ionix5891

whitser wrote: »

i dont understant democracy? then why will we have to vote again on a treaty we rejected until they get the result they want. IS THAT DEMOCRATIC?

yes it is democratic and no you dont understand democracy

heres some reading for you
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_democracy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_democracy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy

Kev_ps3

marco_polo wrote: »

Still waiting to hear how would would replace all the jobs the economy would lose in Financial Services, Pharamaceuticals and IT.

Well you cant explain what wont happin. Explain why all the jobs would suddenly go? tbh this is more scare mongering.
The myth that we need a larger power controlling us to be a successful country is nothing more than that.

The Corinthian

whitser wrote: »

i dont understant democracy? then why will we have to vote again on a treaty we rejected until they get the result they want. IS THAT DEMOCRATIC?

Strictly speaking, yes.

Democracy is where either through elected representatives or direct referendum citizens get to choose their constituency's (be it a local council or even a nation) policies.

On this basis we actually already decided in favour of Lisbon at the general election when we voted in a government who then represented us in negotiations. After all, we don't require referenda for every single law they debate or pass, and the only reason we do for EU treaties like Lisbon is down to a legal matter that was raised in the Crotty challenge. We vote on EU treaties not for democratic reasons, but legal ones.

Additionally, a people can be asked again and again to vote on an issue. There's nothing undemocratic in this and has been done on numerous issues before from divorce, abortion and Nice. Indeed, I've no doubt that we will sooner or later have another referendum on abortion.

As for the frequency? This is open to debate. One could argue that a certain period should pass between referenda being posed again, or that any new referendum should substantially differ, or simply that a referendum should be called if there is enough demand or belief that the outcome might be different. All of these are open to interpretation and debate.

But ultimately there is nothing undemocratic in having multiple referenda as citizens still get to choose their constituency's policies. It is only undemocratic if the referendum is unfair or fixed, but if citizens really don't want something they'll vote no every time. If they change their minds, then you can accuse them of being fickle, but that's democracy - as Machiavelli put it, the people's love is fickle.

Of course, I can see the Eurosceptic viewpoint in that it can be argued that it is unfair for the government to re-run referenda until they get the result they want, but given the number of blatant lies and FUD that was used by the Eurosceptic camp in the last referendum, I'd have to say my sympathy would be very limited.

You can't play dirty and then whinge that the other side is doing the same, after all.

Solair

Kev_ps3 wrote: »

Just shows what a farce democracy is then.
If there was a yes vote would they ask us again? The whole thing is a farce and the people asking for another vote dont know the meaning of democracy.

They're not asking us to vote on the same thing again, that would just be a waste of time and money. The treaty will be modified by the addition of protocols. That's just negotiation, the Irish people rejected the it, they can add something to the package and see if we are OK with that instead.

If we just threw the treaty out, went off in a sulk and left the EU that would just be 'throwing the baby out with the bathwater' / 'biting off our nose to spite our face' and various other clichés.

force eleven

Solair wrote: »

They're not asking us to vote on the same thing again, that would just be a waste of time and money. The treaty will be modified by the addition of protocols. That's just negotiation, the Irish people rejected the it, they can add something to the package and see if we are OK with that instead.

If we just threw the treaty out, went off in a sulk and left the EU that would just be 'throwing the baby out with the bathwater' / 'biting off our nose to spite our face' and various other clichés.

Which is fair enough. If there are modifications/opt outs/amendments to address the 3 or 4 areas of concern to most No voters, then by all means put it back to the people. I would not have a problem with that. But the vibe is that they put it back to us with little or nothing added, and I have a major problem with that.

ionix5891

force eleven wrote: »

Which is fair enough. If there are modifications/opt outs/amendments to address the 3 or 4 areas of concern to most No voters, then by all means put it back to the people. I would not have a problem with that. But the vibe is that they put it back to us with little or nothing added, and I have a major problem with that.

by the way what are these 3-4 major areas of concern

kevteljeur

Kev_ps3 wrote: »

Well you cant explain what wont happin. Explain why all the jobs would suddenly go? tbh this is more scare mongering.
The myth that we need a larger power controlling us to be a successful country is nothing more than that.

People on these threads have explained it to you and others many, many times. You just keep refusing to acknowledge it, and your previous answers have included employing people in the military and farming. Other people have suggested maintaining our economy using our meagre gas reserves, gambling on finding some oil, and trying to use our rapidly dwindling fish stocks as exports. And the probably the best one of all, exporting jobs, although I have to admit that if that doesn't mean mass emigration then it's new to me.

All rubbish of course. Look at the logos on all infrastructure projects in Ireland; they all have part subsidy from the EU Structural Fund. Even with that funding, the state can no longer afford to build at the same rate and Transport 21, designed to make us competitive with the newly-joined European countries, is starting to fall further and further behind.

The situation where Ireland's selling point was a smart, well-educated, English-speaking, compliant workforce prepared to work for a low wage no longer exists; Ireland now has a smart, reasonably educated workforce that requires a high wage to pay for mortgages and accustomed to a very high cost of living on credit.

Ireland competitors are the likes of Hungary and Poland, who have what? A smart, well-educated, English-speaking, moderately compliant workforce prepared to work for a low wage. And lower transport costs, and with a rapidly improving infrastructure.

You're not coming up with any ways to sell Ireland here. If Ireland was outside of the EU, trade with EU countries would as others here have observed, involve high-tariffs selling products that the EU already produces, and US companies which we rely on for employment would be positioned outside the tariff barrier. If we wanted in on the trade but not the EU, we would still need to abide by EU rules, but we wouldn't get any voting power on them at all, which right now we most certainly do.

I'd like to get a detailed answer from you on those points, you seem to be short on detail and long on Nationalistic Isolationist rhetoric.

The Corinthian

Kev_ps3 wrote: »

Well you cant explain what wont happin. Explain why all the jobs would suddenly go? tbh this is more scare mongering.
The myth that we need a larger power controlling us to be a successful country is nothing more than that.

It's been explained repeatedly in this thread. Either you've not read the explanation or you have not understood it.

I'll repeat it in simple terms. Ireland is a service based economy heavily reliant on the EU market and on multinational firms that are heavily reliant on the EU market. Even Irish SME's that don't deal directly with the EU market, invariable will be indirectly reliant in that they service those companies that are.

Leaving the EU would mean that we would have to deal with EU market as outsiders. None of the options there very attractive as they would guarantee loss of influence on EU directives (while still being expected to implement them) and not guarantee that our access to the market will be on a par with a member state - or that it will not be terminated at a later date.

Of course we would find alternative markets and make deals with other nations to our benefit, but ultimately we would worse off because we will lose a lot more than we would gain. Ireland is not Switzerland or Norway. We don't have a manufacturing industry worth noting, we're not sitting on an ocean of oil and our economy is entirely based on the services sector and agriculture - both of which are heavily dependant on the EU market.

Multinationals are here largely because we are in the EU. Other factors, such as language, tax and education also come into play, but if you lose one one of the major incentives, that will give such companies reason to move on. If only one, such as Dell or Microsoft were to move on, the economy would suffer and panic. If two or three decided to up sticks, then the effect to the economy would be utterly devastating.

So, perhaps you can now rebut this and tell us how we'll be able to compensate for all this. As much as making our own trade deals might look attractive, the reality is the deals a trading bloc like the EU gets and gives are a lot better. It's actually the whole point of a trading bloc.

Scofflaw

Kev_ps3 wrote: »

Well you cant explain what wont happin. Explain why all the jobs would suddenly go? tbh this is more scare mongering.
The myth that we need a larger power controlling us to be a successful country is nothing more than that.

Well, how about you ask anyone who posts here who is a business owner? Personally, I'd move to Scotland, and take my business with me, because I wish to sell into other EU markets.

cordially,
Scofflaw