July Competition, Forecast/Analysis

Mothman

The 1961-1990 June mean for the 10 stations is 14.4C.
Here are the July questions. There is one extra question over and above June competition.Deep Easterly can elaborate on Q4 if need be.

1) July mean temperature 08
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur?
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur?
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb)
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July.

List of stations for bonus 2a and 3a
Ballyhaise
Belmullet
Birr
Casement
Claremorris
Cork Airport
Dublin Airport
Johnstown Castle
Knock Airport
Malin Head
Mullingar
Carlow (Oak Park)
Shannon Airport
Valentia

I don't think I'll get time to do the usual stats

Mothman

Mothman wrote: »

I don't think I'll get time to do the usual stats

If there are specific requests for stats, I'll see what I can do to answer...

nacho libre

1) July mean temperature 14.8 c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 27.9
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.1
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1015
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 15.2 mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 5.5c

Snowbie

Questions 5 and 6 edited at OP request.

Hal1

Why ye saying Casement will have lowest temp, don't say that please!

rc28

1) July mean temperature 08--- 15.4c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 28.0c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.1c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1014mb
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 14mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 7.0c

Gonzo

1) July mean temperature 08--- 14.9c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 24.7c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.9c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012mb
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 9mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 6.5c

kindredspirit

1) July mean temperature 08 15.7
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 28.7
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Johnstown Castle.
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.4
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Claremorris.
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 10mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 6.0

Deep Easterly

With regards mean pressure values for the month of July, very little info available on the web. This link will serve as a quick overview of pressure means for each station for each month. There is little or no variation between the yearly averages shown on this and the 58-88 mean values I have available here on paper. http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~brugge/ukclimate.html#1Ireland

The following map is a crude rendition of the Met Eireann national mean gradient and pressure values for the month of July (51-80)



Forgive my bad artistory, was done in a rush , but is a good representation of July's mean gradient and pressure flow for 30years.

Oveall, the 58-88 nationwide mean, when rounded down, is 1016 mb. South has higher values, while north has slightly lower. For competition purposes, we will use daily averages as per Ogimet (00hrs).

While the methods we will use to monitor and assess pressure values for Ireland from here on in are by no means professional or foolproof, it will serve reasonably well for the purpose of the competition and for general analysis,. It should give us an overall picture of how mean pressure values for each month vary from the norm.

With regards the competition, scores will be reflective of values that are rounded down or up enough to disregard any decimals. I.E, a final figure of say 1017.6 mb will be rounded up to 1018 mb, while a figure of 1017.4 mb will fall back to 1017 mb. Just keeps it in context for a general overview.

Good luck in any forecast regarding this. Remember, the lower the pressure you pick, the more likely you are considering an unsettled month ahead, and vice versa. So consider carefully!!!!!

Deep Easterly

1) July mean temperature 08 15.1c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 27.5c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.9c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Ballyhaise
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1017mb
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 7mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 7.9c

ch750536

1) July mean temperature 08 : 14.4
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 29.1
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)4.4
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur?Casement
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1016
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 0mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 6.2

Deep Easterly

Mothman wrote: »

I don't think I'll get time to do the usual stats

A helping hand, in your own style.:)

2000: Highest: 27.6c (Shannon). Lowest: 5.4c (Birr)

2001: Highest: 26.9c (Dublin Apt), Lowest: 3.9c (Mullingar)

2002: Highest: 24.0c (Clones), Lowest: 5.3c (Clones)

2003: Highest: 25.7c (Clones), Lowest: 7.2c (Kilkenny)

2004: Highest: 23.9c (Kilkenny), Lowest: 4.1c (Mullingar)

2005: Highest: 29.2c:eek:(Kilkenny), Lowest: 6.3 (Clones)

2006: Highest: 31.0c, phew:D (Casement), Lowest: 4.5c (Mullingar)

2007: Highest: 21.5c, brrrr:rolleyes:(Kilkenny), Lowest: 5.4c (Mullingar)

Danno

1) July mean temperature 08 : 16.1
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 28.7
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Carlow
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.7
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Cavan
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1020
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 7.3mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 11.2

DOCARCH

1) July mean temperature 08 : 15.3c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.7c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.1c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1014
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 10.8mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8.6c

M.T. Cranium

1) July mean temperature 08 : 15.7 C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 28.8 C
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Belmullet
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 6.7 C
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1013
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 20.0 mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 11.5 C

Trogdor

1) July mean temperature 08 : 14.1 C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 24.3 C
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Clones
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.9 C
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 14.0 mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 9.7 C

Strasser

1) July mean temperature 08: 14.1
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 22.3
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.5
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Clones
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 7mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8.7

kindredspirit

Do you mind if I change my forecast of the month's mean SLP to 1015?

gurramok

1) July mean temperature 08: 14.5
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 22.8
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.2
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1013
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 9.3mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 5.1

Weather BOFH

1) July mean temperature 08 : 15.2C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.4C
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Casement
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.3C
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1012
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 8.0mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8.8C

nilhg

1) July mean temperature 08 15.0
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 29.9
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.9
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1016.3
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 1.1mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8

jd

1) July mean temperature 08 14.8
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 27.1
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Oakpark
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 5.4
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1014.8
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 5.4mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 8.2

Deep Easterly

Anyone else? lines close at midnight tonight.:pac:

Mobhi1

1) July mean temperature 14.3
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 23.1
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Oak Park
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 7.1
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1010
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 15mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 7.7

Supercell

1) July mean temperature 08 - 14.3
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) - 23.7
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Carlow
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.7
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Casement
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1013
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July - 5mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July - 8.1

Snowbie

1) July mean temperature 08 14.2C
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.1C
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 7.7C
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Knock
4)What will be mean sea level air pressure during month. (Long term mean for July is 1016mb) 1013mb
5) Total rainfall total at Casement for the 3 days 11th,12th & 13th July 20mm
6) What's the lowest temperature at Casement,during 11-13th July. 9C

nacho libre

according to the forecast it's going to be fairly chilly tonight...

perhaps the temperature may drop close to 3C in Mullingar:D

Deep Easterly

A summary of June just past, Boards.ie style:

Final overall mean breakdown for June 08:



Close to average. Warmest in the southwest, coolest in the northeast.

Rainfall totals for the month:



Again, southwestern half of the country wettest, while northeastern half relatively drier.

Mean daily pressure trend for June 08:



Mean pressure stayed above normal for most of the month, but fell slightly below normal towards the end of the month, which reflects the wetter 2nd half of June nicely. Final value: 1015.0 mb, 0.9mb below the June average of 1015.9 mb.


Some humble climate statistics for the year of 2008 up to and including 30th June:

Firstly, deviational trend for each month of the period:



June showed a big drop from the deviational warmth of May 08 by returning to more normal setup. Intrestingly, June 08 is the 3rd month of 2008 that has come in close to the 61-90 norm, (within 0.5c), something that did not occur even once at this stage of the year in 2007.

Bar graph of the difference between 07/08 for the first 6 months of each year:



The record breaking warmth of 2007 still has not been surpassed by 2008 so far. While the first 6 months of 2008 is still 0.95c above normal, 2007 had a warmer 1.39c for the same period, as reflected in the graph. However, if the next couple of months come in warmer than average, then the glory of 2007 could well be under threat. Could be interesting to watch over the coming months.

Rainfall for 2008 for the period in question:



While there where a lot of dry spells in during the last couple of months, mean rainfall totals for 2008 up to 30th June are still above the Jan-June 61-90 mean of 432.9 mm by almost 97mm. Also 2008 is proving to be wetter than up to the same point in 2007.

Daily pressure values for the Jan-June period of the present year:



The running 2008 pressure mean up to 30th June stands at 1011.6 mb, which is 1.4 mb below the 58-88 mean of 1013 mb for the Jan-June period. The current yearly trend is steady, indicative of little overall change in the current pattern for the next couple of weeks??

We will see this time next month..



:cool:

Supercell

Mullingar 3.6°C overnight.
I see a good few people have that as their forecast low station.
Going to be a high scoring month this time I think.

Mothman

Remarkable how consistant the max temperature has been for past 3 weeks
30 day mean is 13.2C

Deep Easterly

July 08 stats up to midnight 4th:

OIM: 13.7c (1.0c below average).
OMR: 24.6mm (39.3% of June normal / 600%+ of June 1st-June 4th normal).
OMP: 1009.4 mb (5.5 mb below normal)