TDF: Stage 16 Predictions (No spoilers)

Chips Lovell

Massive stage in the Alps today, but no mountain top finish, which could mean that the favourites will be content to mark eachother in advance of tomorrow's battle on the Alpe d'Heuz. Probably a day for the break to stick if it threatens no one. The finish is definitely one to suit one Samuel Sanchez, who's been disappointing to date. I do see though that he hung with the big boys till the end on Sunday and is now 10th overall, so maybe his finding his form at last.

TinyExplosions

I'd love to say Cunego, but that ship's long since sailed -he's been looking more and more like he's over the hill this year.

I think there's a pretty good chance CSC will attack to try and blow Evans out, or Menchov might try to get away (he looked great on Sunday before he crashed). I'm going to stick my neck out and say Andy Schleck will get away and win this one, and Frank will get the win tomorrow on Alpe D'Huez

Raam

CSC have pretty much said that they are going to hammer Evans. It's reckoned that he will get two minutes in the time trial, so they have to go for it.
Who is CSCs lead rider? Are they going to let Frank go for it, or is Sastre still realisticly in with a shout?

Caroline_ie

I put my money on young Andy Schleck for that one. Like I said last week. I said it 1st! ( people stealing my tips now eh! )

EDIT: Andy On Alpes d'Huez ... Today Mmmm ? Menchov: as always - just a random guess although I am really for Andy Schleck tomorrow.

Chips Lovell

TinyExplosions wrote: »

I think there's a pretty good chance CSC will attack to try and blow Evans out..

The question is how will they do that today. Evans is a decent descender, so even if they go hammer and tongs on the Bonnette and drop him, he's still got a chance of getting back on before the finish. Why risk all that effort?

Raam wrote: »

Who is CSCs lead rider? Are they going to let Frank go for it, or is Sastre still realisticly in with a shout?

I'd say Sastre is still their best chance of an overall win. He's a better time trialler than Schleck. And Schleck always has a tendancy to blow on at least one mountain stage.

Raam

I gotta say, I really love the mountain stages. The drama is fantastic. I actually get incredibly excited and start shouting at the TV. Before the tour, I didn't think Frank had a chance, but I was really gunning for him in the last stage.

Chips Lovell

Raam wrote: »

Before the tour, I didn't think Frank had a chance, but I was really gunning for him in the last stage.

I've always thought he was flakey. Mind you, he's going surprisingly better here than in any other stage race I've seen him in.

Funkyzeit

If it's not a breakaway I'll plump for Menchov. Thought he looked strong the other day even after falling.

TinyExplosions

el tonto wrote: »

The question is how will they do that today. Evans is a decent descender, so even if they go hammer and tongs on the Bonnette and drop him, he's still got a chance of getting back on before the finish. Why risk all that effort?

I think Sunday showed that Evans is tiring, although he has had a rest day, he was struggling at the end of the Sunday's stage. I think CSC can get their train motoring and pull out a big lead on him if they work it right, though they may well lie low today and wit for tomorrow.

Caroline -I'm only stealing your tips cos they're so good!

Raam

From the looks of it, neither Rabbobank nor Silence-Lotto have a team capable of containing CSC. If CSC start to go for, will we see the Rabbobank and Silence-Lotto boys up there with them? From what I saw, they fell off bit by bit. It would be great to see them all up there today

DirkVoodoo

So a schleck win and CSC to get him valuable seconds on evans before the TT?

Caroline_ie

Let me look in my magic glass ball .... evans will be in a crash involving a french person cheering on the side of the road, will try to get back on but will puncture 200 metres down the road. Franck S will keep the yellow and add more gap between himself and evans and everyone else. Menchov will win this stage and go home with one of the podium girl ...

Vive le tour

DirkVoodoo

You forgot to mention that evans will probably go berserk at aforementioned french person and let out a weird squeal as he goes to hit him.

Gotta love those podium girls, my favourite part of the highlights

Chips Lovell

DirkVoodoo wrote: »

So a schleck win and CSC to get him valuable seconds on evans before the TT?

Schleck needs minutes, not seconds. Going by the results of the first time trial, he'd need to be about four minutes ahead of Evans to have a decent hope of retaining the jersey.

Caroline_ie wrote: »

Menchov will win this stage and go home with one of the podium girl ...

Given the amount of charisma Menchov has, he'd need to win the Tour about five times before he even has a hope with a podium girl.

Mchucifer

Some decent predictions me thinks.
I would say that today CSC will have a go. I'm hopeful they dont pull out too much on Evans cos despite his squeaky voice he's a likeable tough cookie and I think what ever they make on him he'll pull back somewhat on the descent.

For todays win considering downhill to the finish. I would say Valverde in a sprint. Put the house on it!!

Caroline_ie

el tonto wrote: »

Given the amount of charisma Menchov has, he'd need to win the Tour about five times before he even has a hope with a podium girl.

Well, he wouldn't be my pick if I had to chose a rider, but it probably would be mutual, since I am not a TdF Podium girl.:D

Look at Hincapie ... he's not very attractive and still went home with a TdF podiun girl ... anything is possible!

Chips Lovell

Caroline_ie wrote: »

Look at Hincapie ... he's not very attractive and still went home with a TdF podiun girl ... anything is possible!

In fairness to George, he does have a personality. Menchov makes Vinokourov look like Bob Hope.

Caroline_ie

el tonto wrote: »

In fairness to George, he does have a personality. Menchov makes Vinokourov look like Bob Hope.

haha sorry George :pac:

justfortherecor

Anyone else think Cancellara has been riding a blinder this year? Granted, he didnt win the TT as expected, but his work for CSC in the mountains (along with the equally impressive Jens Voigt) has been commendable. Impressive stuff for such a big guy, doing a good bit of work today again to keep the check on Cunego in the group ahead.

omri

Why Evans is non-starter today ?

justfortherecor

No, he's in there.

Caroline_ie

These CSC guys are amazing. I wonder if they'll send a team to the Tour De Ireland this year as well

.

justfortherecor

What a descent! 25km of treacherous speed from the highest point on the tour. Stunning stuff

Menchov's poor descending cost him a cheap 30secs. Suppose it demonstrates how important descending skill can be, it's not all about climbing! He'll have to nail it tomorrow on L'Alpe!