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Thunderstorms and Convective Potential (Welsh imports 28/7/08)

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    #32
    force eleven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    Danno wrote: »
    Beat me to it!!! :D:D:D

    Can confirm, the heavens have opened, and its nice thunder and lightning we have now. My trusty AM radio is having a field day at the moment.


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    #33
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Looking at the Sat24 image there appears the be three cells in quick succession of each other down wind of you in Moate. When they merge further on say out near Athlone it could get huge indeed!


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    #34
    force eleven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    Danno wrote: »
    Looking at the Sat24 image there appears the be three cells in quick succession of each other down wind of you in Moate. When they merge further on say out near Athlone it could get huge indeed!

    That initial cell has cleared to my north, but it still looks potentially stormy to the southeast.AM radio still buzzing away, occasional distant rumbles still being heard. Actually, the most interesting thing is the ragged clouds at the base of the cloud level, they swirl and twist upwards very fast, wish my digital camera wasn't banjaxed :(


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    #35
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Adjusted ranging for Westmeath. Thats why map is cleared of strikes. Should be back right in two or three minutes.

    I see plenty of popcorn clouds rising to my east and northeast. The front overhead seems to be pushing back towards the west again.


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    #36
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    force eleven wrote: »
    Actually, the most interesting thing is the ragged clouds at the base of the cloud level, they swirl and twist upwards very fast, wish my digital camera wasn't banjaxed
    Me too:(

    Ah well good moderate storm there. Danno only move in by a few increments. Play the replay function. On MSN now btw.


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    #37
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Interesting stuff moving out to sea from Cornwall now - again hopefully this will slip up our way along the front! Imports please!!!


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    #38
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Interesting stuff moving out to sea from Cornwall now - again hopefully this will slip up our way along the front! Imports please!!!
    Yes that has grown in the last while. Moving towards the SE atm. The ML cape( GFS 12Z) has increased slightly now over the Irish sea. A bit of an upgrade. See what the new net weather model brings us released just after 1800.


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    #39
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    it's still costa del sol here in meath, not even a cloud, beautiful warm beer garden evening.


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    #40
    force eleven
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    Different world here on the westmeath/offaly border, lashing rain, rumbles of thunder, roads flooded, typical summer thunderstorms.


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    #41
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Have a look what developed over the south of France! :eek:

    http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=homepage


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    #42
    StratoQ
    Registered Users Posts: 41 ✭StratoQ


    Snowbie wrote: »
    Yes that has grown in the last while. Moving towards the SE atm. The ML cape( GFS 12Z) has increased slightly now over the Irish sea. A bit of an upgrade. See what the new net weather model brings us released just after 1800.

    Cornwall ?

    I have my eye on the crop of TS's heading over South Wales atm. They have already given considerable activity over Bristol area.

    I wonder what effect the Celtic Sea will have on that lot?

    Could be arriving at Wexford by 9/10pm.


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    #43
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    images.php?country=fr&sat=&1217270051406

    A few scattered showers over France at the mo. :D


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    #44
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    The Ts over Wales will export into the Irish sea and most will die out. These are land generated storms from surface heating. We need the elevated high based storms that can move over water without the water having an effect in killing off the convection.

    However there will be energy left in the atmosphere that will spread across the Irish sea later. The stuff to our south is not electrified and is just heavy rain. We will have to see later on when it pushes north to see what it's goin to do. At this moment nothing special.

    Toal nowcast with radar and satellite watching.


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    #45
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Be very supprised if any of the activity in Wales makes it half way across the Irish sea. Any developments for the East are not likely to begin until after dark. With instability increasing and a warm humid night on the way thunderstorms seem a real possibility. Whilst they develope quickly they die out just as quickly.


    Note the English channel and the sea based storms. Thats the area of instability on the way here. The whole feature is dieing however I still reckon it will still pack a punch tonight.


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    #46
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    DM anything is possible now, in fact GFS keeps lapse rates lower here but not too significant with high base stuff. The energy left from Wales in the mid to upper levels and with moisture from the south moving north is worth keeping an eye on. GFS also progged the heavier rain for 05Z


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    #47
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Gettin noise now on the detector as the storms now into Cardigan bay still remain


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    #48
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I think I can just about make out the top of an anvil from the Welsh storms through the mist.....damn you......you.......sea!


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    #49
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Must say I'm surprised the Welsh storms have made it into the sea, thought the mountains would suck them dry, should be interesting later.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #50
    Hal1
    Registered Users Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭Hal1


    Reading some of the comments over on netweather and it sounds like they are getting their fair share, I just wish they would share with us:(.


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    #51
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Your right DM you can. A trip to Howth head in a little while for me to see the light show over the sea if this remains constant.


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    #52
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Supercell wrote: »
    Must say I'm surprised the Welsh storms have made it into the sea, thought the mountains would suck them dry, should be interesting later.
    You still got snow on the brain Supercell that does that, the mtns aid in lift and intensify the storm with the prevailing wind from the east.:D


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    #53
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Even if they miraculously make it in some form there too far south of Dublin:( However the whole system seems to be turning to thunderstorms:)


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    #54
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Some Cumulus building just off the coast here now. See them DM to the SE.


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    #55
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Snowbie wrote: »
    Some Cumulus building just off the coast here now. See them DM to the SE.

    Dont see that from here. What I do see is some high level fluff - in a way it looks like a storm that was trying to develope but didnt over Wales. Have to say the clouds are moving supprisingly fast. The Irish coast might generate enough lift if the storms get close enough to the coast. Fingers crossed but i still think the usual will happen and they will just die.


    EDIT - oh wait I think I see it now. There is a tree blocking my view! Im tempted to say that is promising.


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    #56
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Its interesting, the air is much much more moist than the same time last night, dew points are not falling much at all and the air temp is holding high, there is potential in the air for sure.

    Air:-

    OutsideTempHistory.gif

    Dew :-

    DewPointHistory.gif
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #57
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I definately see an anvil now. Very distant though. Snowbie you should be able to see it.

    Satellite also suggests the storms are holding up so far


    http://www.sat24.com/images.php?country=fr&sat=&1217270051406


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    #58
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Most definite. Sun illuminating it nicely too


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    #59
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Seeing any flashes off in the distance yet?


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    #60
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    No - if it was night time though it would be a different story.


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    #61
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭highdef


    I can see some cumlus to my south which is decaying. Radar still looks good. i might head up to Howth Summit with the video camera and tripod in a while. Are you heading up Snowbie?


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