Thunderstorms and Convective Potential (Dublin Floods 9/8/08)

sirpsycho

could clearly see the anvil and massive cliuds from here in stamullen co meath passing to the north of me. massive clouds

Snowbie

An occluded wave moving SE across Ireland tomorrow will create instability ahead and at it's passage. A convective potential again for Sunday but with more chance of a storm or two. Mainly in Midlands, North, East and maybe parts of the SE.

Wind shear is low but maybe moderate
Cape/LI is sufficient
A convergence forms roughly around the borders and into N Leinster.(most risk area)
Instability is good.
Some beefy showers Sunday with the threat of a storm or two.

Mr Benevolent

Hmmm, 36% chance around 1600. That NetWeather site is great!

Couple of very loud bangs of thunder here just now.
Hasn't started raining from this storm yet but it's knocking on the door,I can see the sprays.

Snowbie

Ah nuts, just back home after leaving Courtown about 1.5hrs ago.

Ah Drat lol

About 8 loud cracks and at least 2 viewed straight line lightning bolts.
Courtown would have had a direct hit from this one.
Not much rain here just a short micro burst or three.

M.T. Cranium

There could be a heavy rainfall event late Monday night and Tuesday across large sections of Ireland the way the models are evolving. And it could continue with more heavy storms around on Wednesday. Just thought I would mention this and perhaps a new thread would be in order at least following the late model runs.

Snowbie

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

There could be a heavy rainfall event late Monday night and Tuesday across large sections of Ireland the way the models are evolving. And it could continue with more heavy storms around on Wednesday. Just thought I would mention this and perhaps a new thread would be in order at least following the late model runs.

We encourage here to start thread's on how significant an event might/will be so by all means start a new thread yourself no problem or else it will get swallowed up in this thread. On the main page hit the new thread option to create, title and explain the basis/significance of your input of or on an event.

M.T. Cranium

Well I would start one after looking over the 06z GFS output perhaps, but then I'll be sound asleep because while you're enjoying the morning I am packing it in for the night here. Betcha somebody starts a thread on it before I get back to the computer which is likely to be almost Monday evening.

darkman2

Chance of thunderstorms across the midlands, east, north and southwest today. Not much wind shear but low CAPE values and low level convergence across the midlands.

TheGreenGiant

indeed, had a few rumbles there about an hour ago, hopefully something good will kick off when this low lying cloud clears and the low moves in:)

Damomanye

yea, theres a heavy feeling today. current temp on my station in the garden is 18.1.Constant mist.the odd rumble of thunder around and a few instances of IC lightning on snowbies detector near me.

TheGreenGiant

nice, conditions looking good so.fingers crossed:D

Damomanye

Quick question guys, On sat images cloud is moving south to north at the moment but when i look up when i go outside i can see the cloud moving north to south. Is this a low level / high level thing. im confused. what does it mean?

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=zoom&xas=166&yas=173

TheGreenGiant

yes low level can do that, there could be 2 levels of wind direction taking place, higher level clouds as you see on the image are moving north but from what you are saying low level clouds are moving in opposite direction.it could also be that there are 2 different wind directions at different layers of the atmosphere

Sierra Oscar

Severe weather here at the moment! I have heard thunder for the last 20 mins, and it has been raining in a torrential manner here for the last 10.

Sort of flooding outside already! Blimey.

Damomanye

TheGreenGiant wrote: »

yes low level can do that, there could be 2 levels of wind direction taking place, higher level clouds as you see on the image are moving north but from what you are saying low level clouds are moving in opposite direction.it could also be that there are 2 different wind directions at different layers of the atmosphere

Cool, cheers for that GreenGiant.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Severe weather here at the moment! I have heard thunder for the last 20 mins, and it has been raining in a torrential manner here for the last 10.

Sort of flooding outside already! Blimey.

Yea that cell has been giving some strong echos Oscar, it just missed me by a smidge to the east.

TheGreenGiant

yeah you can see the high cloud popping out of the lower cloud on sat24 in the limerick area

Snowbie

Damomanye wrote: »

Quick question guys, On sat images cloud is moving south to north at the moment but when i look up when i go outside i can see the cloud moving north to south. Is this a low level / high level thing. im confused. what does it mean?

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=zoom&xas=166&yas=173

TheGreenGiant wrote: »

yes low level can do that, there could be 2 levels of wind direction taking place, higher level clouds as you see on the image are moving north but from what you are saying low level clouds are moving in opposite direction.it could also be that there are 2 different wind directions at different layers of the atmosphere

That is true. What your seeing is a convergence zone(and more south than GFS plotted). As we cannot see wind/air moving, the clouds are a good indicator for this. Converging winds can force air particles to rise rapidly triggering heavy showers or Ts in little time. Greatest convergence happens when surface winds are blowing directly into each other(from different directions) into the same area.

Convection begins if the atmosphere allows it and the mid to upper level winds blow the storm in that direction.

Sierra Oscar

Another few loud claps of thunder in he last 2 minutes. It seems to be to the West of us at the moment, stopped raining here but the clouds incoming are frightfully dark.

TheGreenGiant

any pics you could take of the storm?

CrowdedHouse

A few rumbles of thunder heard last 10 mins near Banagher Co. Offally

Deep Easterly

Nice shower breaking out over the Bay: (Co of Bow Waves Sailing School)



Some big showers now breaking out over the midlands:



Snowbie, that southern leg of the convective building currently just may have your name on it!

Snowbie

Don't think so Paddy. I am watching nice low level East wind bringing mist in off the sea which is converging with winds coming down from the north over the midlands. IE: both of them is fueling the midlands convection.

Mid to upper winds are still Sw-Ne so north midlands and into the Ne be most of risk from the storm track.

How is your sheild holding up over there?
Mist, glorious mist here.:(

Deep Easterly

Shield well in place here Snowbie. Some spectacularly black clouds just too my south, which is being fed directly from here. Also looking very ominous to my northwest, I would say just north of Claremorris. Very black to the east as well. Once again, I am in the middle!

You have to laugh..

Edit: Cloud running to the east of me is now visably exploding rain wise, can see it heading for the ground.

Sierra Oscar

Snowbie, your StormVue is now tracking 1 thunderstorm!:eek:

Wertz

Hmmm, came in here wondering if we had a storm headed for Dundalk....the clouds boiling and bubbling to my west the whole way down the M1 an hour ago would suggest so, as does the doppler...gotten very dark and grey here in the last 10 minutes, no rain, wind has died down and it's muggy as hell...hopefully we'll get a few rumbles in a while...

Snowbie

@Paddy. One positive out of this is that i can see some explosive convection now over the West Dublin and into Meath moving NE.
Some nice angry skies.

Edit: Have to laugh alright Paddy, again i'm on the side of this. Soooooo close.

DOCARCH

If you were to trust the 1800 radar as accurate there appears to be very heavy precip. moving into west Dublin?

ronnie3585

Extremely heavy rain now in Galway city. Our street is now flooded! Very loud claps of thunder and lightning flashes.