Thunderstorms and Convective Potential

Snowbie

That one has Wicklow written all over it. MM and your totals should rise again before midnight if it reaches you in time.

No sferics from it though, doesn't look like there is CB's in it according to the IR sat pic.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote: »

That one has Wicklow written all over it. MM and your totals should rise again before midnight if it reaches you in time.

No sferics from it though, doesn't look like there is CB's in it according to the IR sat pic.

I think it will track further North and could effect Dublin and Wicklow. However it will probrably die out anyway as it moves East.

Deep Easterly

Tomorrow has some potential to bring a couple of bangs of thunder in places:





All depends how much the wrap-around occlusion allows this to happen.

Perhaps Snowbie could validate or discount later?

DOCARCH

Form the radar and satellite it looks like there could be some cells developing in Meath, around the Navan/Trim area, moving westwards?

TheGreenGiant

na nothing is developing round Trim yet, except heavy bursts of rain now and again, but we can hope!:)

darkman2

Snowbie - your thoughts please. This has kinda slipped in under the radar


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3011.png


With winds off shore this could be interesting

Hal1

What's the difference between that chart and this I'd agree that tomorrow in the southern half (SW in particualar and midlands from midday onwards) could be interesting but that's just from my observation.

Supercell

Hal1 wrote: »

What's the difference between that chart and this I'd agree that tomorrow in the southern half (SW in particualar and midlands from midday onwards) could be interesting but that's just from my observation.

Darkmans one is for for 6 hours after yours, which is why your shows more potential.

Snowbie is the thunderstorm master but to my eyes neither of those hold much potential for much widespread lightening activity, maybe some heavy showers and isolated storms in the south midlands but not much more.
I think Snowbie may still be having broadband issues.

darkman2

Today suddenly got very interesting


http://www.estofex.org/

Winds will be SWerly. Beware of potential flash flooding from possibly quite severe storms.
Are the met about to be caught out again?

A mix of cloudy weather and sunny spells today, with the cloud predominating in most places. Scattered outbreaks of rain also - mainly in the south and northwest at first, but becoming more widespread as the day goes on and giving some heavy bursts locally. Highest temperatures 15 to 19 C.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn184.png

JanuarySnowstor

See my post last night on flood thread.
Saw it coming myself.

Snowbie

My broadband came back only this morning so detector/website back online after me being left in limbo since Sunday.

Playing catch up atm but looked at HI res GFS model and does indicate an interesting day today.
With very little low level shear there is in fact strong deep layer directional shear which could be enough with surface warming to spark quite intense showers/storms.

Low level convergence seems likely over NI but the rest of the country is under Cape values as high as 1000 j/kg in parts with LI of -4.

Highest values in the south midlands and SE from 00z output.
Sat pics show Cu build up over western and southern areas with some decent showers around there atm.

I have only glanced at the models this morning and have not taken alot of other parameters into account. So nowcasting from now on to see if it pulls off.

darkman2

Nice spot JS.;)


Lets see what the next GFS run comes out with but the 00z run really upped the precip big time particularly across the South Midlands. Storms that develope here could reach flood prone areas in the South and East. Dublin looks to be on the margins if there is to be a storm event - but then it was on 'that Saturday' aswell.....JS Cork might not be that good a spot as storms look like being inland convection type so with the wind more on shore down there it may be you miss out - but its equally possible you wont.

Hal1

Kilkenny, Carlow or Laois seem to be in the firing line if anything develops, looking at the GFS (06z).

Big rumble of thunder here in a large shower bearing down on us now.
Quite a lot of cb's on the edge of it visible but it's closing in dark right now.

This has been some year for thunder!

TheGreenGiant

http://www.ukasf.weather2day.com/news/read-16

looking promising for the weekend

Snowbie

For UK yea, not here atm.

TheGreenGiant

oops i ment to say the uk, sorry

Snowbie

A slight risk of heavy showers up through the midlands late afternoon and into the evening as the air starts to destabilise from the west aswell as dewpoints and surface heating to be favourable.

Snowbie

I found this clip to very interesting and very eerie. Hair stand on the back of the neck kinda thing.

How quick the weather changes. Listen to the scanner and the sirens in the back ground.

http://fr.youtube.com/watch?v=p3hCt7Ps6XE

Danno

Rapid development taking place down over Biscay Bay... http://www.sat24.com

Hal1

Some sferics being detected, not sure how accurate they are, as there not showing on any detectors. I would love to be in the south of france now :>

DOCARCH

Looks like a reasonable chance of storms this afternoon. Would be nice to start September with a good bang!

DOCARCH

Some form of CB/anvil currently developing to my south west.

darkman2

Looks like a sharp downpour on radar to SW of Dublin - no indication of thunder yet.

Snowbie

TS just south of Dublin

nilhg

darkman2 wrote: »

Looks like a sharp downpour on radar to SW of Dublin - no indication of thunder yet.

Snowbie wrote: »

TS just south of Dublin

My better half's work place in Kildare town lost phones and power due to a large TS around about 12.00, the rain came to within a mile of us here, then stopped.

shamwari

Some serious looking CB towers have formed west of Swords (probably over Ashbourne / Dunshaughlin Area). Looks interesting...

sirpsycho

took some snaps of it eating me lunch out in citywest. impressive looking from out here

Snowbie

Just like in April when the upper air temps are a bit cooler than during the summer months, the CB's build quite quick with cold air aloft(due to polar maritime air over us also) and as with the DP being lower the air is quite clear so we can see the individual CB's with good visiblity (unless your under a downpour then it's different).

shamwari

Just saw a huge flash of lightning but no thunder :mad: