Eddie Hobbs: "Starter homes will be 175,000 euros in 2 years"

Saskia

On page 29 on Eddie's magazine "You & Your Money" Eddie says the following;

"Given the forces now unleased and when the dust settles in a year or two, prices for starter homes should be no more than 5 times the average wage or about 175,000 euros"

As someone who wants to buy their first home but has yet to I find this just adds to the "watch and wait" theory but will they really drop to that much?

I hope so!

staker

It's a bold prediction. If they do, we'll never afford em as the cost of financing them will be huge:cool:

SimpleSam06

staker wrote: »

It's a bold prediction. If they do, we'll never afford em as the cost of financing them will be huge:cool:

No what you'll have then is people saving up for longer so they will own a greater initial percentage of their home at the start. Repayments will be less and shorter, but the mad dash to get on the ladder will be gone, replaced by a more studied, careful approach.

And about time too, people were rolling into the largest investment of their lives with seriously half cocked ideas over the last few years. The ones who were sneering at the "begrudgers" will be end up somewhat bitter themselves when other people are paying a quarter of their mortgages and are free and clear long before they are out of their overpriced starter home.

mikemac

Good news

egan007

no more than 5 times the average wage?

Based on what - More Hobbs Guessing.

jetski

egan007 - Think your the one whos guessing hobbs is guessing

SkepticOne

staker wrote: »

It's a bold prediction. If they do, we'll never afford em as the cost of financing them will be huge:cool:

Which means they'll drop further.

the_syco

Bullsh|t. Unless you used substandard crap, have thin walls, and slash the wages of the trades people (someone mention union?), I can't see such a drop.

ixoy

the_syco wrote: »

Bullsh|t. Unless you used substandard crap, have thin walls, and slash the wages of the trades people (someone mention union?), I can't see such a drop.

Well we don't know that until we know the build cost of units. This unit cost should decrease in years to come as the price of the land that they're built on drops. Similarly some of the wages should drop as some tradesmen, who were asking ridiculous prices, are forced to meet falling demand - in much the same way as IT wages soared and dropped in the dot come bubble/burst.

gurramok

the_syco wrote: »

Bullsh|t. Unless you used substandard crap, have thin walls, and slash the wages of the trades people (someone mention union?), I can't see such a drop.

Hate to break your bubble but some 'starter homes' are already at 190k in Balbriggan for example.
They are apts but the downward slide is only beginning and 175k is very realistic for the near future

jetski

SkepticOne wrote: »

Which means they'll drop further.

+1

jetski

gurramok wrote: »

Hate to break your bubble but some 'starter homes' are already at 190k in Balbriggan for example.
They are apts but the downward slide is only beginning and 175k is very realistic for the near future

+1

BendiBus

ixoy wrote: »

This unit cost should decrease in years to come as the price of the land that they're built on drops.

Exactly! Developers will still be able to make an honest profit and tradesmen earn a fair living. Their input costs will drop too.

The only losers in this game are purchasers of overpriced land. Sadly this includes a lot of young FTBs who got sold a pup.

astrofool

jetski wrote: »

+1

You can use the "thanks" icon if you agree with a post.

jetski

Does that not suggest im thanking...

+1 to me means more like agreeing with the post

who007

like this?

jetski

i think he is talking about the thumbs up button in the bottom right hand side of your posts window

subway

does he mean the average house will cost 175k or that a pre-2008 shoebox will cost 175k?

i dont buy into the notion of "starter homes", you buy a home to live in, not to practise living in. so if he is sugesting the average price will be around 175k i think he is spot on.
if he thinks 35sqm 1 bed apts will be 175k i think he is in for a shock.
you can already get 1 bed apts for under 200k in plenty of areas in dublin
http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=9690

subway

in fact there are 42 results for houses for sale in dublin at under 200k on daft right now
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5Bcc_id%5D=ct1&s%5Bmnb%5D=&s%5Bmxb%5D=&s%5Bmnp%5D=&s%5Bmxp%5D=200000&s%5Bpt_id%5D=&s%5Bhouse_type%5D=&s%5Bsqmn%5D=&s%5Bsqmx%5D=&s%5Bmna%5D=&s%5Bmxa%5D=&search=Search+%BB&more=&tab=1&s%5Bsearch_type%5D=sale&s%5Btransport%5D=&s%5Badvanced%5D=&s%5Bprice_per_room%5D=

jetski

Starter homes doesnt mean appartments, id imagine 2 bed semi type yolks

Firetrap

Ah yes, those little houses that you live in at the start before you do stuff like propagate the species. At that stage, you sell your little house to someone who hasn't yet reproduced and you buy a bigger house.

jetski

something like that :pac:

Ice_Box

Now that Eddie Hobbs has started predicting house prices will fall they are certain to rise. My taxi driver also said stay away from property. Time to buy?

Sqaull20

When all the foreign workers are gone home in the next 2 years, they will be knocking people down to fill the empty houses/apartments imo.

The whole concept of a "starter home" is wrong in the first place!
It was simply an excuse to build places that dont suit long term living in a market where people were buying anything because prices were going UP!

jetski

Ice_Box wrote: »

My taxi driver also said stay away from property. Time to buy?

When your taxi driver is telling you to buy property that might be an issue.


When your taxi driver is telling you to "stay away from property" thats sound advise, simply because when property is on the way up the turning point is a problem as when it happens its allready too late, you cant sell your investment or house or your house/investment . but when the prices have reached bottom..... what have you got to loose?

jetski

Sqaull20 wrote: »

When all the foreign workers are gone home in the next 2 years, they will be knocking people down to fill the empty houses/apartments imo.

its going to get messy....

Saskia

subway wrote: »

in fact there are 42 results for houses for sale in dublin at under 200k on daft right now
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5Bcc_id%5D=ct1&s%5Bmnb%5D=&s%5Bmxb%5D=&s%5Bmnp%5D=&s%5Bmxp%5D=200000&s%5Bpt_id%5D=&s%5Bhouse_type%5D=&s%5Bsqmn%5D=&s%5Bsqmx%5D=&s%5Bmna%5D=&s%5Bmxa%5D=&search=Search+%BB&more=&tab=1&s%5Bsearch_type%5D=sale&s%5Btransport%5D=&s%5Badvanced%5D=&s%5Bprice_per_room%5D=

Yes but would you actually live in them? Or would it take another 50k to make them decent? Or could you handle scumbags living all around you in an area where robbed cars are a daily occurance?

There is a catch to any sub 200k house in Dublin. For now

MG

Was watching a Location, location, location type programme in Germany about a year ago, searching in either Dusseldorf or Duisburg, can't remember now. Anyhow, they gave the price and the sq m and all houses shown were in the region of 1600 Eur per sq M. (a variety of buyers were shown)

Average starter home/3 bed semi approx 100 sq M at 175k = 1750 Eur per sq m so it's a very reasonable estimate.

ZYX

MG wrote: »

Was watching a Location, location, location type programme in Germany about a year ago, searching in either Dusseldorf or Duisburg, can't remember now. Anyhow, they gave the price and the sq m and all houses shown were in the region of 1600 Eur per sq M. (a variety of buyers were shown)

Average starter home/3 bed semi approx 100 sq M at 175k = 1750 Eur per sq m so it's a very reasonable estimate.

Obviously where in Germany you buy.

"Take the example of a typical detached, one family house of average size; one with about 125 square meters (ca. 1,345 sq. ft) of living space, including garage. Such a place in the former West Germany cost about €255,000. But prices varied considerably by region. Such a house in the north cost only about €185,000. In the west the price was about €235,000, and in the south it was significantly more, coming in at just under €310,000. In cities of more than 500,000 population the price was about €300,000.
The city-state of Bremen was the least expensive of the larger cities. The house described would cost a mere €185,000. At the other end of the scale the Bavarian capital of Munich was far and away the most expensive. The house described could cost €635,000! The price per square meter for privately owned property was only €975 in Bremen and around €2,050 in Munich."

Munich has a population similar to Dublin.

SimpleSam06

ZYX wrote: »

Munich has a population similar to Dublin.

Eh that comparison is meaningless to be honest until we can see the specific house and area they are talking about. The higher end one might be beachfront property or something. And speaking of spurious comparisons, I could list off a dozen cities, and more, the same size as Dublin with nowhere near the property prices, so I'm not sure where thats going.