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Eddie Hobbs: "Starter homes will be 175,000 euros in 2 years"

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    #122
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    ZYX wrote: »
    Then I will explain it to you. He added together properties and sites for sale. He got this figure
    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5Bcc_id%5D=&search=1&x=10&y=11
    Did you get that from the man himself or just pull it out of your bum like most of the comments you make? Seriously, I would like to hear what he has to say on the matter.
    ZYX wrote: »
    Yeah sure.
    Yeah, really. I don't honestly care if you fly buzzing off into the aether or camp on this thread until the sun burns out, you've consistently attempted to talk up the market in the face of all the facts in every discussion in accom/prop so far, and thus are likely up to your eyeballs in debt that you signed up for, in my opinion, which makes your opinion more or less worthless. You have a bare grasp of statistics which means you have to be bludgeoned down with thrice reinforced facts every time you object to something, or you just_keep_posting, something which gets old fairly quickly.


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    #123
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    Then I will explain it to you. He added together properties and sites for sale. He got this figure
    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s...ch=1&x=10&y=11

    Now 73K. Up 10K since last page of this thread.


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    #124
    ZYX
    Registered Users Posts: 882 ✭✭✭ZYX


    asdasd wrote: »
    Now 73K. Up 10K since last page of this thread.
    Exactly. The point I was making was that this figure includes properties and sites


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    #125
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    Exactly. The point I was making was that this figure includes properties and sites

    I have not read all of the thread. You need to understand however that that number is oversupply, not some of it, all of it.


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    #126
    ZYX
    Registered Users Posts: 882 ✭✭✭ZYX


    SimpleSam06 wrote: »
    Yeah, really. I don't honestly care if you fly buzzing off into the aether or camp on this thread until the sun burns out, you've consistently attempted to talk up the market in the face of all the facts in every discussion in accom/prop so far, and thus are likely up to your eyeballs in debt that you signed up for, in my opinion, which makes your opinion more or less worthless. You have a bare grasp of statistics which means you have to be bludgeoned down with thrice reinforced facts every time you object to something, or you just_keep_posting, something which gets old fairly quickly.
    Sam. I asked a simple question of you. If you had answered it the first time you would have saved yourself a lot of trouble.


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    #127
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    ZYX wrote: »
    Sam. I asked a simple question of you. If you had answered it the first time you would have saved yourself a lot of trouble.
    Far be it from me to disabuse you of yet another illusion, but this is idle banter compared with some of the original prop/accom debates. :D


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    #128
    ZYX
    Registered Users Posts: 882 ✭✭✭ZYX


    asdasd wrote: »

    In fact the 35K is unrealistic. In a recessionary year the country will lose people, and ther recession really hasnt started to bite yet. Next year we may need no new housing, and some developments have yet to complete.
    The 35000 refers to potential new entrants to market. The number of properties sold is actually much higher. Last year just under 80,000 properties were sold in Ireland. Up to September this year the figure is almost 40,000.


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    #129
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    The 35000 refers to potential new entrants to market. The number of properties sold is actually much higher. Last year just under 80,000 properties were sold in Ireland. Up to September this year the figure is almost 40,000.

    Yes I understood that. We were talking about build.


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    #130
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    ZYX wrote: »
    The 35000 refers to potential new entrants to market. The number of properties sold is actually much higher. Last year just under 80,000 properties were sold in Ireland. Up to September this year the figure is almost 40,000.
    The number of properties sold was much higher. Investors have all but fled the market now, meaning you are left with natural demand. People trading whichever way aren't reducing supply, since they are selling their own houses.

    This was already explained to you once in the thread, so I'd expect someone else will have to go over it a third time in order for it to sink in.


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    #131
    Rod & Reel
    Closed Accounts Posts: 132 ✭✭Rod & Reel


    House prices will fall to approx 45% peak hi prices in dublin and 35% in drive belt.
    oil prices are falling daily as demand drys up. nearly all industries use oil. building sector being 1. trucks generators cranes etc.
    when oil steadies itself and starts to climb again house prices will rise as demand increases. why? because the econmy is back and industries are again on the move up. china india america europe all need this to drive there economy.
    OIL IS THE REAL GOLD.

    im sure ill get knockedabout over this post but oil in june july $140/147 a barrell oil in oct nov $60/65 oil in jan feb 2009 $35/37 a barrell.
    house prices have taken on a similar role.
    world wide resecion started to unfold end of aug/sept.

    anyone serioulsy tthinking about buying a hose be well advised to take a look at oil prices over the next 4/6 momnths and watch its trend.

    of course welcome all discussion on the post. oh a please dont come a cropper it only makes for an aurgument instead of a debat.


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    #132
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    anyone serioulsy tthinking about buying a hose be well advised to take a look at oil prices over the next 4/6 momnths and watch its trend.

    Firstly try spell and puntuate properly. Sure you can. Secondly oil is not gold. Gold is recession proof. Thirdly oil prices follow the market, not lead it ( unless there is OPEC manipulation). When the world goes into recession the price drops.


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    #133
    Oafley Jones
    Registered Users Posts: 6,491 ✭✭✭Oafley Jones


    asdasd wrote: »
    Firstly try spell and puntuate properly. Sure you can. Secondly oil is not gold. Gold is recession proof. Thirdly oil prices follow the market, not lead it ( unless there is OPEC manipulation). When the world goes into recession the price drops.

    Isn't irony great?


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    #134
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    Isn't irony great?

    No. A typo is not the same as continuous misspelling and grammar mistakes that make comprehension difficult, or impossible.

    Feel free to post on topic.


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    #135
    Rod & Reel
    Closed Accounts Posts: 132 ✭✭Rod & Reel


    asdasd wrote: »
    Firstly try spell and puntuate properly. Sure you can. Secondly oil is not gold. Gold is recession proof. Thirdly oil prices follow the market, not lead it ( unless there is OPEC manipulation). When the world goes into recession the price drops.

    the best ya can do, comment on grammer.


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    #136
    Rod & Reel
    Closed Accounts Posts: 132 ✭✭Rod & Reel


    to the person who said oil does not lead unless opec manipulate the market.
    meeting with opec a month r so ago to cut oil production to curtail the lowering price is not manipulation the meeting set for next month to further cut the production to stem the fall is not manipulation?

    opec are a cartel.

    oh and any further comments on grammer or what ever else u seem to think ur collage ed gives you please stick em where the sun dont shine couldnt be arsed reading about ya.


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    #137
    blast05
    Closed Accounts Posts: 256 ✭✭blast05


    They won't need to, just take a hit on their very high labour costs. You have also failed to answer my question of what they are going to be doing for money for the next three years, besides disappearing into some sort of mysterious farm somewhere over the horizon. Because that isn't going to happen.

    I'll tell you what is going to happen.

    90% of them will sit on welfare for a few months until their savings dry up and the holiday is over, or their payments on that 06 jeep eat through them. They'll try to nixer their way through it, competing with the Eastern Europeans, before finally they bite the bullet and reduce the "trades" to reasonable costs, when they will finally begin to find a bit of honest work.

    Do you seriously think reduced labour costs of say 40% is going to lead for value for money in housing. Labour costs are only about 1/3 of the cost of contruction. Materials are not decreasing and can not due to margins etc. so reduced labour costs is going to be very minimal.
    Again, you're not listening to me re building next year - there will be none bar one off housing. A statement that 90% of them will sit on welfare for a few months until their savings dry up is complete and utter horse manure. Where i am from, there a brickies and carpenters etc that would do a days work for €100 but there is no work cos no one is building ... you just don't get it. As to what they will do .... well to list off from the top of my head a bunch of lads that used to work in house construction - building up and investing whatever savings he had in a small farm while his wife works as a nurse, agricultural labourer, gone to Australia with wife and young kid, working in London and coming home every 2nd weekend to wife and kids, sitting on his arse all day being fed by his mother, a gang of 5 (including a brother of mine) gone to Australia, some sort of electrical maintainence position with Dublin corporation .... the list goes on . .... all in all, simply not working in house construction

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by blast05
    As said before, CIF have turned off the taps completely

    Heh. The only thing I find funnier than that statement is the image of rats deserting a sinking ship it evokes.

    Again, you simply do not understand the simple principle that if there is no money to be made, then developers will not build houses. At the moment there is no money to be made so no development will take place. QED .... and i am glad you find it funny :confused:



    Remember, i am only interested in peoples perspective on when they expect a stabilisation in the market .... but you seem to have some almost sort of bitter tone of satisfaction that property prices have fallen so much and are loving the fact that there are builders out of work and people in trouble who bought at the top of the market .... hoping i am wrong !


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    #138
    BendiBus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,074 ✭✭✭BendiBus


    I believe Tom Parlon has accused SIPTU of naked greed :eek:

    Hello, Kettle? Pot here. You've got a fine dark colour!


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    #139
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    blast05 wrote: »
    Do you seriously think reduced labour costs of say 40% is going to lead for value for money in housing.
    Nope. It will will be a side effect however.
    blast05 wrote: »
    Again, you're not listening to me re building next year - there will be none bar one off housing.
    Well thats your prediction, we'll see how it pans out. Discussions around these parts drag out for years for a reason.
    blast05 wrote: »
    Where i am from, there a brickies and carpenters etc that would do a days work for €100
    Which country are you from? Because I had a carpenter and sparky come in and do a couple of hours work for me at the start of the year, and between the two of them they charged a grand and a half, and caused half again as much damage as they charged. Good, professional Irish workmanship mind you, from established tradesmen.
    blast05 wrote: »
    well to list off from the top of my head a bunch of lads that used to work in house construction - building up and investing whatever savings he had in a small farm while his wife works as a nurse, agricultural labourer, gone to Australia with wife and young kid, working in London and coming home every 2nd weekend to wife and kids, sitting on his arse all day being fed by his mother, a gang of 5 (including a brother of mine) gone to Australia, some sort of electrical maintainence position with Dublin corporation .... the list goes on . .... all in all, simply not working in house construction
    We'll see. You're coming at it from the perspective of random conjecture here to be honest, and the rapid increase of numbers on social welfare recently would tend to disagree with you.
    blast05 wrote: »
    Again, you simply do not understand the simple principle that if there is no money to be made, then developers will not build houses. At the moment there is no money to be made so no development will take place.
    Whatever about my understanding, you seem to have breezed right past the part where a significant portion of the GDP is owed to banks by developers. They need to find an income stream immediately or the seizures will continue, and then all the land banks in the country won't save them.
    blast05 wrote: »
    QED .... and i am glad you find it funny :confused:
    Its always funny when large numbers of self important people find out they aren't half as important as they thought they were,

    blast05 wrote: »
    Remember, i am only interested in peoples perspective on when they expect a stabilisation in the market
    And we are discussing aspects of that.
    blast05 wrote: »
    .... but you seem to have some almost sort of bitter tone of satisfaction that property prices have fallen so much and are loving the fact that there are builders out of work and people in trouble who bought at the top of the market .... hoping i am wrong !
    You would be wrong to think there is any satisfaction other than the cold satisfaction of a successful diagnosis of a horrible disease. The trick now will be to make sure the cure doesn't kill the patient.

    If you want my honest emotional reaction to recent events, I'm appalled at the damage that has been done by major financial institutions, more so the more it unravels, and the lack of accountability which is semi justified because they were simply acting within the system that was built for them, as well as the staggering incompetence of our elected reprsentatives.

    I'm taking damage myself despite not owing a penny to anyone and having several successful businesses, purely because most of the people I am dealing with are running out of cash fast trying to service their own debts, and there are no guarantees I'll come out the far side intact, unless I can pull some fancy footwork, all in all I'm pretty narked by the whole thing.


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    #140
    blast05
    Closed Accounts Posts: 256 ✭✭blast05


    Which country are you from? Because I had a carpenter and sparky come in and do a couple of hours work for me at the start of the year, and between the two of them they charged a grand and a half, and caused half again as much damage as they charged. Good, professional Irish workmanship mind you, from established tradesmen.

    Well they done you - spectacularly. Lads i am talking about are tradesmen who are tied to home (rural west) and would gladly do a day here, a week there or whatever is going for €100-150 a day - top class work. Probably drawing social welfare as well and invariably small time farmers as well. They would have been working full time during the good times. Of course i appreciate prices in Dublin would be different but the prices you quote are simply mad in my book.
    We'll see. You're coming at it from the perspective of random conjecture here to be honest, and the rapid increase of numbers on social welfare recently would tend to disagree with you.

    Indeed, and without knowing, i'd hazard a guess that at least 2 if not 3 of the gang i listed are on welfare when at most only 1 should be
    you seem to have breezed right past the part where a significant portion of the GDP
    But if building more brings them into a worse position then whats the point? Any big builder that is in trouble has almost certainly enough siphoned off to be financially secure - money the banks won't get their hands on - and to start building now would require them to put this money in as there is no way the banks are going to throw what they would perceive to be good money after bad.


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    #141
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    blast05 wrote: »
    but the prices you quote are simply mad in my book.
    Dunno what book you're reading so, as that was the average quote I got for the work. I didn't go with the cheapest - maybe I should have. There were some materials involved, but still, nowhere near that value. I know plenty of builders that wouldn't get out of bed in the morning for less. I don't know any builders that would settle for average industrial wage, which is what you're talking about - I'd have been laughed off the phone.
    blast05 wrote: »
    But if building more brings them into a worse position then whats the point?
    Its hard to find a worse position than bankrupt.
    blast05 wrote: »
    Any big builder that is in trouble has almost certainly enough siphoned off to be financially secure - money the banks won't get their hands on - and to start building now would require them to put this money in as there is no way the banks are going to throw what they would perceive to be good money after bad.
    Eh no, what you're saying is that most of the valuable land in the country has been "siphoned off" and is now untouchable. Does that not seem a bit implausible to you?


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    #142
    Allah Hu Akbar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 218 ✭✭Allah Hu Akbar


    SimpleSam06 wrote: »
    Which country are you from? Because I had a carpenter and sparky come in and do a couple of hours work for me at the start of the year, and between the two of them they charged a grand and a half, and caused half again as much damage as they charged. Good, professional Irish workmanship mind you, from established tradesmen.


    Well why the hell did you pay them? Did the sparky wire all your house? That price they charged you is insane. They got Euro750 each for a few hours work? I know a guy he is a fully qualified electrician and he get's just over 600 a week that's for a full week.


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    #143
    pdb123
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26 ✭pdb123


    Not sure if this has been said, but i imagine he means average price.. meaning that Dublin prices will still be higher, compared to the price sin ballygomarryyourcousin...

    If you look a the cost of a one \ two bed apartment in Dublin now, its not far off thoese levels now


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    #144
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    Allah Hu Akbar wrote: »
    Well why the hell did you pay them? Did the sparky wire all your house? That price they charged you is insane. They got Euro750 each for a few hours work? I know a guy he is a fully qualified electrician and he get's just over 600 a week that's for a full week.
    That was the average quote out of scores of calls, tbh. Some were a good bit lower, several were a good bit higher. Where is your friend working, and if he'll wire a house for €750 I'll find him all the work he could ever want?


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    #145
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    meaning that Dublin prices will still be higher, compared to the price sin ballygomarryyourcousin...

    The dublin prices will be higher meme! I am not so sure. As far as I know there was little or no premium in Dublin prices until this boom,

    Most immigration was into Dublin, so if most of that reverses Dublin may have higher over supply than elsewhere, or sellable oversupply ( rather than second holiday homes which are not for sale).


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    #146
    pdb123
    Closed Accounts Posts: 26 ✭pdb123


    I'm not so sure, you may have a point, but if you look at where the so called, ghost neighbourhoods are. As far as I'm aware there is very few in Dublin (if any). yet there is hundreds splattered across cork, limerick, galway, laois etc..


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    #147
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    pdb123 wrote: »
    I'm not so sure, you may have a point, but if you look at where the so called, ghost neighbourhoods are. As far as I'm aware there is very few in Dublin (if any). yet there is hundreds splattered across cork, limerick, galway, laois etc..

    There are plenty in Dublin.

    Have a walk down the docklands for example, specifically the southern part.


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    #148
    Allah Hu Akbar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 218 ✭✭Allah Hu Akbar


    SimpleSam06 wrote: »
    That was the average quote out of scores of calls, tbh. Some were a good bit lower, several were a good bit higher. Where is your friend working, and if he'll wire a house for €750 I'll find him all the work he could ever want?


    Well I didn't really mean a whole house. He done a job last week connecting wires to the main box, he had to change the whole box put new cables in, put in a shower and a few other bit's cost 200 and he called about three times to the house.

    What work exactly did the sparky do?

    He works in Athlone.

    If people gave you a quote a good bit less why did you not go with them? It would have been cheaper not to mention they wouldn't done any damage costing more money, which by the way they should pay! Take pictures and receipts of cost to repair and bring them to small claims court.

    You were done my friend big time, i don't know people can charge that kinda money, they must make a million in a year.

    You paid with cash? Their not going to declare that to the tax man, you've got to know how to work them.


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    #149
    blast05
    Closed Accounts Posts: 256 ✭✭blast05


    Eh no, what you're saying is that most of the valuable land in the country has been "siphoned off" and is now untouchable. Does that not seem a bit implausible to you?

    No, what i am saying is that during the good years the builders were siphoning off vast amounts of money into foreign banks ... to leave them right in the event of a rainy day. Of course i have no evidence of this but do you seriously think they weren't ?!
    As a builder/banker (yes, he worked at both !) said to me about 2 years ago when the list of tax dodgers was published in the papers ... to parahprase .... "jays, i'd love to be on that list in a few years time cos that means i've 'siphoned' off many multiples of what they would be fining me"


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    #150
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    Allah Hu Akbar wrote: »
    What work exactly did the sparky do?
    Installed a lighting system. Not a normal one mind you but nothing too complex either.
    Allah Hu Akbar wrote: »
    If people gave you a quote a good bit less why did you not go with them?
    I was labouring under the impression that cheaper didn't imply quality, and quality was what I wanted. So I went with local, established tradesmen. Won't be making that mistake again.
    Allah Hu Akbar wrote: »
    not to mention they wouldn't done any damage costing more money
    How do you know that?
    Allah Hu Akbar wrote: »
    which by the way they should pay! Take pictures and receipts of cost to repair and bring them to small claims court.
    I can't bring them to a small claims court because the work was being done for a business, and the small claims court won't touch commercial complainants, believe me I checked. By the time I got back and found out about it, they were long gone.
    Allah Hu Akbar wrote: »
    You were done my friend big time, i don't know people can charge that kinda money, they must make a million in a year.
    I'm not thrilled with it, but as I said, that was around the average I was quoted. If I had offered them the percentage of wages you seem to think would have worked, nobody at all would have touched it at the time.
    Allah Hu Akbar wrote: »
    You paid with cash? Their not going to declare that to the tax man, you've got to know how to work them.
    The payment was made by cheque, and I got receipts as well, again it was made before I got back to inspect the work.
    blast05 wrote: »
    No, what i am saying is that during the good years the builders were siphoning off vast amounts of money into foreign banks ... to leave them right in the event of a rainy day. Of course i have no evidence of this but do you seriously think they weren't ?! As a builder/banker (yes, he worked at both !) said to me about 2 years ago when the list of tax dodgers was published in the papers ... to parahprase .... "jays, i'd love to be on that list in a few years time cos that means i've 'siphoned' off many multiples of what they would be fining me"
    Eh you're away with the fairies at this stage.


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    #151
    albert-bundy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭albert-bundy


    hope eddie proves to be right


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