Phil Ivey Messing

RoundTower

Requiem4adream wrote: »

As if any of us are actually going to play enough 10k events to see our true expectation in them anyway lol.

I'm always amused when people who really should know something about mathematics fall into this particular fallacy. No, you don't have to play an infinite amount of 10k events to work out your expectation in one such event. You don't have to toss 100 coins to figure out that the next one is probably 50-50 to be heads or tails.

And before you whinge that I'm always attacking your posts no, I'm not surprised that it's you in particular who thinks this. Many other people could make the same mistake, etc, etc.

Hectorjelly

cardshark202 wrote: »

what about sunglasses?

Good Question. Im going to wait until I have informed the poker world about indoor hat abuse before launching any more crusades though

eagle eye

Ban all sunglasses and people with eye diseases that claim to have certified sunglasses.

eagle eye

Now back on topic. I think this is another of those threads that is teetering on the brink of a cash vs tourney war. The sad part is that you are all afraid to come out of the closet and declare yourself as a homo6maxcashual or homotourneydonksexual.
You are all giving a reason why you would and would not call when the truth is that you just really want to say, you are a donkament player so you don't have a clue or you only have one buyin so its not a cash game.

Requiem4adream

TommyGunne wrote: »

This does not support any argument. This is beside any argument. Why should this be a reason to play any differently? Obv nobody will ever play enough 10k tourneys to see true expectation. Just because you will never see true expectation is not a reason to try maximise your EV.



Unfortunately, I feel I have to end the post with this but.... I am not picking a fight with you, I am not insulting your ability, I am making a simple point of something in your post that does not hang together. I am not singling you out and this post does not comment on the rest of your post or anyone elses post.

Disclaimer = good Yeah that comment was just an aside really , not relevant to pretty much anything.

Main point whole thread = if this ever happened in practise most people dont snapcall or call full stop without a comfortably obvious edge. Much higher than Q7o. Non poker factors definitely in play in this decision. In game theory im sure most people would say they'd call with any edge here.

hotspur

Hectorjelly wrote: »

Good Question. Im going to wait until I have informed the poker world about indoor hat abuse before launching any more crusades though

I fully support this noble and holy crusade. the only advantage of wearing a hat indoors that I can think of is as self defence in ruffian infested dens of iniquity such as the Sporting Emporium, as demonstrated here in this informative Chumley Warner clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08BqaSuEE_w

Mellor

The idea of a better spot is one that is tossed about alot. How big a spot should you pass in expectance of a better spot, lets say a 55% chance, do the better spotters passes that spot? I certainly don't.

While I can accept that some of the time, even most of the time you will have a better spot. There at least three factors that make waiting lose value,

If you wait and get a better spot, you may well very well not get the same amount of chips in. Above with 55%, you had 10k. And you were certain of gettign 10k in. If you wait and get your better spot, you might either not get the whole stack in (you have KK and other players fold to a 4 bet), or you get it if for less than a full stack against a short at the table.
1. The fact that you don't always have a better spot really affects the EV of waiting. You may pick up a greater edge half the time, the other half where you have to settle for a coinflip or maybe worse, underpair etc, really reduces the EV of waiting.
   
2. Better spots still occur if you take the edge now and win.
   You take the 55%, and win. You now have 20k, and if the better spot comes, you increase your stack to say 25k.
   Going the waiting route, and if the better spot comes, you need increased equity to make up this loss by not having a bigger stack.

A long time ago, I read an article, linked on boards. That brought my thinking around to these idea of how good do you need to be to pass an edge in big events. I'll try to dig it out.

Mellor

It may have dated a little, and i don't agree with it all. But the concept is there.
http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15093