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September 2008 Forecast/Analysis

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  • 27-08-2008 10:45pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭


    Supercell, Will open this if ok, as you seem occupied :p. Feel free to change the questions if you must, but I will try to keep to your style

    Overall mean for September is 12.8c. (double checked this time).

    Questions below which include my own reckonings. :)

    1. Overall September Mean (12.6c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (19.9c)
    2a. At which station? (Oak Park)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month?
    (1.3c)
    3a. At which station? (Claremorris)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (80%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.4c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (17.3mm)

    Good luck everyone. :cool:


«13

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    1. Overall September Mean (13.7c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (22.6c)
    2a. At which station? (Shannon)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.7c)
    3a. At which station? (Birr)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (85%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.3c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (15.1mm)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,701 ✭✭✭jd


    1. Overall September Mean (13.5c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (22.1c)
    2a. At which station? (Oakpark)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.1c)
    3a. At which station? (Birr)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (98%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+0.4c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (11.1mm)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,517 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    1. Overall September Mean (13.3c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (24.5c)
    2a. At which station? (Casement)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (1.5c)
    3a. At which station? (Dublin)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (103%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+0.3c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (2.0 mm)

    So now you know what it won't be like :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭squonk


    1. Overall September Mean (13.4c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.2c)
    2a. At which station? (Oak Park)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (1.3c)
    3a. At which station? (Birr)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (72%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.7c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (25.1mm)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,273 ✭✭✭squonk


    Can I scrub the last post? I forgot to enter my coolest temp... sorry about this mods...

    1. Overall September Mean (13.4c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.2c)
    2a. At which station? (Oak Park)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.5c)
    3a. At which station? (Birr)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (72%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.7c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (25.1mm)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,329 ✭✭✭arctictree


    1. Overall September Mean (14.1c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (23.2c)
    2a. At which station? (Kilkenny)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (3.1c)
    3a. At which station? (Birr)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (122%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+0.7c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (0.0mm)


  • Registered Users Posts: 240 ✭✭Strasser


    1. Overall September Mean (13.0c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.2c)
    2a. At which station? (Dublin AP)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (0.5c)
    3a. At which station? (Mullingar)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (95%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+0.4c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (7.0mm)


  • Registered Users Posts: 343 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Although I seem to be useless at this :o, here goes.

    1. Overall September Mean (13.8c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (20.8c)
    2a. At which station? (Kilkenny)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (3.5c)
    3a. At which station? (Mullingar)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (103%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+1.0c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (5.4mm)


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,998 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    1. Overall September Mean 13.2c
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 23.2c
    2a. At which station? Shannon
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 2.8c
    3a. At which station? Mullingar
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 98%
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.4c
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 3.2mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    1. Overall September Mean (12.4c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.9c)
    2a. At which station? (Shannon)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.2c)
    3a. At which station? (Dublin AP)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (83%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.1c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (0 mm)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    1. Overall September Mean 13.0c
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 22.4c
    2a. At which station? Oak Park, Carlow
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 1.6c
    3a. At which station? Ballyhaise
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 117%
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.3c
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 0.2mm


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    1. Overall September Mean 13.1c
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 21.5c
    2a. At which station? Shannon
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 0.3c
    3a. At which station? Dublin
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 90%
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.5c
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 9mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    1. Overall September Mean 12.7c
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 21.2c
    2a. At which station? Shannon
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 0.8c
    3a. At which station? Birr
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 105%
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.2c
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 12.4mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭Mobhi1


    1. Overall September Mean 13.5c
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 22.8c
    2a. At which station? Oak Park, Carlow
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? 0.8c
    3a. At which station? Dublin Airport
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 110%
    5. Mean temperature difference from normal at Cork Airport? +1.0c
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. 6.0mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    1. Overall September Mean (13.1c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (22.4c)
    2a. At which station? (Shannon)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (1.1c)
    3a. At which station? (Mullingar)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (90%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.3c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park 7mm

    Kindredspirit - Kilkenney's station is closed now, shall i assume your Kilkenny prediction is for Oak Park instead?

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I feel I've set the mean too high. sorry supercell :o

    1. Overall September Mean (13.3c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.8c)
    2a. At which station? (Shannon)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.3c)
    3a. At which station? (Birr)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (95%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.3c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (11.2mm)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,145 ✭✭✭nilhg


    1. Overall September Mean (13.2c)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (21.1c)
    2a. At which station? (Shannon)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (1.8c)
    3a. At which station? (Birr)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (111%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (+1.1c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (1.3mm)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    1. Overall September Mean (14C)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (22.5c)
    2a. At which station? (Birr)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (2.2c)
    3a. At which station? (Mullingar)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (80%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (0.5c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park 12mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭Hal1


    1. Overall September Mean (15C)
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? (23c)
    2a. At which station? (Casement)
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month? (4.1c)
    3a. At which station? (Knock Airport)
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? (92%)
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? (1.5c)
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park 5mm

    Hope I'm not too late with this :o


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Final Overall Mean for August 08 came it at 15.1c, 0.6c above average:

    oimi.jpg

    West coolest in general.

    Despite the warmer than average conditons, Mean maxima was slightly below, due in no small part to the consistancy of cloud. Mean minima, on the other hand, was well above normal. A cruel irony that destroyed this summer month.

    Tables of Max/Min anomalies:

    maxmin.jpg




    Rainfall during August was well distributed across the country, Connaght, North Munster and parts of N.E Leinster proved to be the wetter places.

    Table below shows the Overall Mean Rainfall for August, with a second table showing more station accumulations. This chart suggests that the extreme north, and the southern half a leinster were the driest areas during the month, relatively speaking.

    Overall, mean rainfall was around twice that of normal.

    raintot.jpg

    raintot2.jpg


    Pressure wise, August 08 was marked by its consistantly below normal values. Although pressure did rise in the last few days, it failed to reach the August norm of 1014 mb. Mean values finished off at 1006.5 mb, which equates to around 7.0 mb below normal.

    pressure.jpg

    Wind wise, nothing out of the ordinary. A few windy days were balanced out by a lot of calmness during the month. Mean windspeeds came in around or just above normal: (8.5 Knts against the 61-90 mean of 8.2 Knts)

    Tables below of daily mean windspeed values, and mean daily directional values:

    wind.jpg

    General mean direction, based on 00hrs-00hrs daily means equated to 225 degrees, which is bang on southwesterly:

    winddir.jpg


    Simplistic Climate Analysis of the year of 2008 up to and including August:

    Overall Mean temperature deviation:

    ClimateMean.jpg

    A slight warming phase took place during August.

    Deviational values of both the January-August periods of both 2007 and 2008 when set against the 61-90 mean:

    anom.jpg

    The warm August of 2008 failed to bring the January-August yearly average to the levels achieved by the same period in 2007. Although, at 0.84c, it is still almost 1.0c above the 61-90 mean.

    Rainfall Means and Totals for the January-August period:

    MeanRainfall.jpg

    2008 proving to be much wetter than 2007 so far, which in turn was much wetter than the 61-90 average.

    Totals for the Jan-Aug period of 2008 at each of the 10 main stations:

    TotalRainfall.jpg

    Southwest and West the wettest areas, while the East and Midlands escaped the worst of the rainfall, as would be the norm.

    I wonder is that why more people live in that region? :p

    Met Eireann's more detailed sum up of the month can be read here, as can their summer analysis.

    *All tables based on values from the main 10 Met Eireann stations (O.I.M), except wind and pressure charts, which only incorporate mean values from Malin Head, Belmullet, Casement, Birr and Roaches Point.

    Sources. Met Eireann, Ogimet, NOAA.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,246 ✭✭✭rc28


    1. Overall September Mean 12.9c
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month? 21.5c
    2a. At which station? Casement
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month?[0.9c
    3a. At which station? Birr
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month? 105%
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport? +0.3c
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park. (10mm)

    Sorry i'm so late with this- only noticed the thread now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Fantastic work there Paddy, really appreciate it, you really know how to present the stats beautifully.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 371 ✭✭Weather BOFH


    Apologies, just back from a few days away, hope I'm not too late!

    1. Overall September Mean: 13.8C
    2. Highest recorded temperature of the month?: 22.2C
    2a. At which station?: Casement
    3. Coolest recorded temperature of the month?: 1.9C
    3a. At which station?: Mullingar
    4. % of 61-90 normal sunshine at Belmullet for the month?: 75%
    5. Mean temperature difference of normal at Cork Airport?: 0.7C
    6. Total rainfall for the 3 day period of 16th/17th/18th of September at Oak Park: 16mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,736 ✭✭✭ch750536


    Hang on, his highest temp & station were yesterdays data!!:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    yes, thanks paddy1 for all the time you put into presenting an engaging overview of the weather each month. This month made for particulary interesting reading. I was surprised to see Belmullet recorded the highest rainfall total.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Hmm Nemonoid...I'm not sure what to do with your temp forecasts..i declare shenanigans!!
    In case I'm accused of bias (you being next to me in the league table and all) I'll leave it up to the rest to decide.

    So what to ye all think, allow Nemonoids temperature forecasts or zero value them?

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    I think it would be a bit harsh to drop Numoniods guess! the month is long and anything can happen.

    Stats up to midnight 5th:

    Overall Mean: 12.6c (-0.1c)
    Overall Mean Max: 15.9c (-0.4c)
    Overall Mean Min: 9.4c (+0.2c)

    Overall Mean Rainfall: 40.3 mm (44.3%)
    Overall Mean Windspeed: 9.7 Kts (+0.4 Kts)
    Overall Mean Pressure: 1003.9 mb (-17 mb)


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    I think it would be a bit harsh to drop Numoniods guess! the month is long and anything can happen.

    Stats up to midnight 5th:

    Overall Mean: 12.6c (-0.1c)
    Overall Mean Max: 15.9c (-0.4c)
    Overall Mean Min: 9.4c (+0.2c)

    Overall Mean Rainfall: 40.3 mm (44.3%)
    Overall Mean Windspeed: 9.7 Kts (+0.4 Kts)
    Overall Mean Pressure: 1003.9 mb (-17 mb)

    September is a change month and temperature maxes are usually at the beginning with a sharp fall off to the end.

    For the league i give double points for exact monthly max and min forecasts..I dont think thats fair here.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Supercell wrote: »
    September is a change month and temperature maxes are usually at the beginning with a sharp fall off to the end.

    For the league i give double points for exact monthly max and min forecasts..I dont think thats fair here.

    if it was a genuine mistake then i say let it stand. although, i would prefer he didn't move above me on the table:pac:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 371 ✭✭Weather BOFH


    I'm lost, I know I was late but I don't get what's wrong with my temps?!?!


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