September 2008 Forecast/Analysis

Strasser

ch750536 wrote: »

Hang on, his highest temp & station were yesterdays data!!:eek:

My vote would be to let him in despite being late but if the above is true then these 2 questions should have new answers entered.

Weather BOFH

ch750536 wrote: »

Hang on, his highest temp & station were yesterdays data!!:eek:

Ummm...I dunno where that came from but my temps weren't from the 1st, from met.ie:

Casement Max: 17.9C
Dublin AP Max: 18.1C

Neither my max temp or station were correct, I guessed for 22.2C at Casement. I don't understand the problem or am I missing something completely?!?!

Supercell

Nemonoid, my apologies, i took ch750536's post at face value without verifying that he was rabble rousing myself.

/Note to self - intarweb reports are not to be trusted!!

Your forecast 's stand, and ch750536 you are a bad bad man!!

nacho libre

Did shannon reach 18.4 yesterday?

Supercell

Yep.

ch750536

Oops sorry guys, was pulling legs. No offence intended.:D

Weather BOFH

No worries, I didn't even notice your post at first ch, so I'd no idea what was going on!

Deep Easterly

Stats* up to midnight 10th.

Overall Mean: 12.8c (0.0c)
Overall Mean Max: 16.2c (-0.1c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.4c (+0.2c)
Overall Mean Windspeed: 10 knts (+0.8 Knts)

*All data based on figures from the 10 Met Eireann synoptic stations, and set against the 61-90 combined mean of each parameter.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Stats* up to midnight 10th.

Overall Mean: 12.8c (0.0c)
Overall Mean Max: 16.2c (-0.1c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.4c (+0.2c)
Overall Mean Windspeed: 10 knts (+0.8 Knts)

*All data based on figures from the 10 Met Eireann synoptic stations, and set against the 61-90 combined mean of each parameter.

the mean figure is a bit of a surprise considering we've had some fairly mild nights so far this month. if it's this low now i think it will finish well below by the end of the month.

anyway, tonight appear to be a cold one. it will be interesting to see what the temperature is and which station records it..

Deep Easterly

Mid month stats (up to midnight 15th)

Overall Mean (10 Station Mean)
Overall Mean: 13.0c (+0.2c)
Overall Mean Max: 16.2c (-0.1c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.7c (+0.4c)
Overall Mean Windspeed: 9.1 knots (-0.2 Knots)
Overall Mean Rainfall: 85.6 mm (94.1%)

5 station mean:
Mean Pressure: 1005.1 mb (-9.0 mb)
Mean Wind Direction: 220.7 degrees (Southwest).

nacho libre

I wonder what the highest and lowest temperatures have been this month?

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

I wonder what the highest and lowest temperatures have been this month?

19.2c at Dublin Airport on the 9th, and 4.4c at both Birr on the 7th, and Mullingar on the 13th.

Mean today (up to midnight last) stands at 12.8c, bang on average, a slight drop on yesterday's value. The difference clear nights makes to the daily mean, as well as the monthly mean is incredible.

Edit, anybody know where Mothman is lately? I can't do this alone! Come back Mothman!

Snowbie

Mothman be AFK for awhile.

Yes Pat thats true about the mean, i say it will pick up a tad again over the next week and should finish in the low 13C for the month mean. The diurnal ranges in September can be large with mild days and clear nights and sets up an avg for the day balancing out mean values.(if minimal cloud cover both day and night of course)

I had hoped for lenghty southerlies for this month from 2nd week untill the end to raise the mean up, looks like i threw this month away and handed it to nacho.

BTW, do you keep on deleting your stats from Photobucket or overwriting them as i have notice them disappearing from some pages. IE: the first page on this thread?

nacho libre

Strasser is going to do very well this month. So far he has predicted the right stations for the lowest and highest temperatures and it looks like he'll be close to the mean temp' too.

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 20th:

Overall Mean: 13.0c (+0.2c)
Overall Mean Max: 16.3c (0.0c)
Overall Mean Min: 9.7c (+0.4)

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

19.2c at Dublin Airport on the 9th, and 4.4c at both Birr on the 7th, and Mullingar on the 13th.

It seems there was a temperature of 19.6c in Shannon yesterday. I wonder is that now the highest temperature recorded so far this month?

M.T. Cranium

Just thought I would record on this thread a min of 2.0 at Birr on the 23rd seems to be the new monthly low so far.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Just thought I would record on this thread a min of 2.0 at Birr on the 23rd seems to be the new monthly low so far.

are you sure that wasn't the 24th?

M.T. Cranium

I'm sure it was the 24th now that you mention it.

Deep Easterly

Up to midnight 25th.

Overall Mean: (10 Station Mean)
Temp: 12.7c (-0.1c)
Max: 16.3c (0.0c)
Min: 9.0c (-0.2c)
Windspeed: 8.0 Knts (-1.3 Knts)

5 Station Mean:
Sea Level Pressure: 1014.0 mb (+0.7 mb)
Wind Direction: 219 Degrees (Southwest).

arctictree

Are you sure that min of 9.0c is correct?!

nacho libre

isn't that the minimum for the month when all stations are taken into consideration?

anyway, it looks like trogdor will top the scoring chart by some margin this month. His guess for the mean is bang on and he also has the correct stations for the highest and lowest temperatures this month.

Supercell

nacho libre wrote: »

isn't that the minimum for the month when all stations are taken into consideration?

anyway, it looks like trogdor will top the scoring chart by some margin this month. His guess for the mean is bang on and he also has the correct stations for the highest and lowest temperatures this month.

The Wickla fightback gets going!

Danno

Supercell wrote: »

The Wickla fightback gets going!

Well it certainly won't be done on the GAA fields!!!

Strasser

nacho libre wrote: »

isn't that the minimum for the month when all stations are taken into consideration?

anyway, it looks like trogdor will top the scoring chart by some margin this month. His guess for the mean is bang on and he also has the correct stations for the highest and lowest temperatures this month.

But there are 5 days to go, a lot can change yet.

nacho libre

Strasser wrote: »

But there are 5 days to go, a lot can change yet.

well, yes, with cloudy nights the mean temperature may rise over the next few days.

Deep Easterly

Overall mean temp up to midnight 28th stands at .

Will be interesting how the next couple of days affect this, if at all. But it does look like ??????? will come out tops this month.

edit: Looking at the figures coming in for today, It looks like probably the most bang on average month we had for a long time, not just with regards temp, but rainfall and windwise as well.

Are we beginning to see a new trend emerging? I.e, dipping below over the next few months?

Now that would be good..

nacho libre

if the remaining nights of September were to stay overcast it would be a good thing from my perspective;)

Deep Easterly

Final figures:

Overall Mean:



At 12.6c, it is the first (though marginal) below average month we have had in 2008 (-0.2c). South Connacht and North Leinster coolest areas in general.

Mean Rainfall:



Finished off at 110% of normal, but still impressive considering most of this fell in the first half of the month. Interestingly, rainfall distribution seems more or less the same as August just past, in that the central section of the country (West to east) received the heavier falls once again, with the extreme north, and the extreme southwest fairing best (or worst, depending on your viewpoint).

Highest temp 19.7c at Mullingar
Lowest temp 2.0c at Birr
Sunshine average for Belmullet 101%
Rainfall total 3 day period Oak Park (16th/17th/18th) 1.3mm

Will do a more detailed sum up later on the October thread, but Met Eireann's summary for September 2008 can be read here

Danno

And Cork was down by 0.6c - very interesting that! Excellent work yet again Pat, well done.