Autumn - Winter 2008 Thoughts

Danno

With September just around the corner and the washout summer behind us, what do people expect from the coming Autumn and Winter?

Will the jet stream stay to the south bringing us further rainfall?
Will northern blocking take place and deliver us cool NE'lys?

Is there a cold winter around the corner or will we get the usual mild muck?
Will there be much snow?

Your thoughts on a postcard - er, on a post reply please!

Supercell

I'm going for a few cold snowy snaps this winter for no other reason that its far far overdue, also with La Nina gone our chances are improved over the last one.

Danno

The high rainfall also means that soil temperatures are at average or slightly below (Birr) all summer long. If this trend continues then frosts will be more severe into the later part of Autumn.

Deep Easterly

Dublin, 1608. And they were complaining!

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0830/1220023440627.html?via=mr

"Frozen Liffy".

I am pinning my hopes on an stormy autumn, a repeat of last autumn's heartbreakingly benign and continuously cloudy conditions I think would kill me off altogether. I can't remember the last time we had proper stormy conditions here

Winter I hope will be easterly dominated. With low humidities coupled with a bracing wind that will dry out the land. Such a set up would bring snow to the east, but I want dry, cold, sub zero continental air. If its cloudy, I don't mind, cloud from the continent is always coupled with a purple hue that adds magic to the atmosphere. Ground rock hard with dryness and dry frost. Perfect.

Unfortunately, they are my hopes, and no doubt, the autumn/winter of 2008 will turn out to be exactly the opposite.

Danno

Bring back the winter of 93 for Paddy!

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Dublin, 1608. And they were complaining!

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0830/1220023440627.html?via=mr

"Frozen Liffy".

I am pinning my hopes on an stormy autumn, a repeat of last autumn's heartbreakingly benign and continuously cloudy conditions I think would kill me off altogether. I can't remember the last time we had proper stormy conditions here

Winter I hope will be easterly dominated. With low humidities coupled with a bracing wind that will dry out the land. Such a set up would bring snow to the east, but I want dry, cold, sub zero continental air. If its cloudy, I don't mind, cloud from the continent is always coupled with a purple hue that adds magic to the atmosphere. Ground rock hard with dryness and dry frost. Perfect.

Unfortunately, they are my hopes, and no doubt, the autumn/winter of 2008 will turn out to be exactly the opposite.

Yes, i would not say no to an icy blast from the east for a couple of weeks this winter. it has been too long since we had one. a polar low, from greenland, in january would be nice too.

Gonzo

im gonna go on the safe bet that this winter will be no different than the last or the one before it and the one before it etc etc!

Mostly mild wet muck, rain sytems bashing in from the atlantic for the majority of winter, very windy at times with temperatures most days 8C to 12C. I expect a dry week somewhere in between with plenty of sunshine and temps around 4C but severe nighttime frosts. I also expect 2 to 3 very short lived 24 hour plunges from the north delivering a few wintry showers falling as rain over dublin city, Waterford and Cork etc. A light dusting of snow may occur in one or 2 spots over night which will melt by 10am the following morning. Mayo, North Galway & Donegal to be favoured spots for any lying snow.

^^
I really hope im wrong with this, I would love to see a week long easterly delivering snow showers like the ones we had on January 4th last year and speaking of winter where has Weathercheck gone? Havent seen him post in months.

darkman2

Gonzo wrote: »

im gonna go on the safe bet that this winter will be no different than the last or the one before it and the one before it etc etc!

Blasphemy!:D


Your not welcome here....anymore:pac:


The UKMO using their usual codology being as vague as ever. They have it on a knife edge between a cold and mild winter but since they dont have a clue that is where they would be. Nobody knows. I like it that way.:)

Snowbie

Safe bet: this winter be dryer than summer 2008.

First week of Jan, Feb, March and April 2008 all had snowy spells and strangely all around the 3rd. I'd be happy with a repeat performance of that in '09.

Gonzo

Snowbie wrote: »

Safe bet: this winter be dryer than summer 2008.

I wished I cuda seen the rain that fell here in August, I heard it was spectacular.

I would love a repeat of the January 4th snow of last year except that it would last alot longer this time around:) I want to see snow lying on the ground for at least 3 days.

arctictree

Gonzo wrote: »

I wished I cuda seen the rain that fell here in August, I heard it was spectacular.

I would love a repeat of the January 4th snow of last year except that it would last alot longer this time around:) I want to see snow lying on the ground for at least 3 days.

That snow missed us here but we did have a very cold night. Down to -5.8c as far as I can recall.

Personally, I would like a repeat of Feb'05 here. About 3 weeks of cold snowy weather...

gurramok

I'll say it again like last year in this forum

After consulting the dolphins, there will be no sticky snow for more than a few hours in Dublin this winter along with the usual atlantic storms heading our way to give us some fresh air

Danno

My personal gut feeling on the rest of 2008 and early 2009...

I personally think that we will see a continuation of the jet stream close or over our south coast for the coming months. In the Autunm there will be three settled spells...
First settled spell will occur around later September towards or within the last week of the month, second spell will be mid or mid-to-late October which could be quite mild due to a French High Pressure cell (Bartlett High), The third settled spell will occur in November around mid month bringing cold days with fog and quite cool days with frosts.
In between these spells I expect showers, especially heavier ones earlier in the autumn, interspersed with atlantic fronts from the west or south west.

Later on in to December, I expect alot of NW-SE diving lows which will bring quite zonal but cool zonal spells with hill snows becoming more and more common. Night time snow showers in the wake of cold fronts. This will be quite a windy time. Another high pressure mid month will bring quite harsh frosts and cold days. This high over us will push north west in to the Greenland area bringing cloudy dry but bitter cold in from the NE. Atlantic fronts from the west or south west will gradually push in and bring some transient snow towards months end, windy from the NW and NE throughout with rain/sleet/snow but not heavy falls.
January I feel will be a month of 2 halves. Cold and snowy to begin, cool and dry to end. High pressure in the atlantic or greenland area bringing northerlys throughout, though pressure will be high enough in second half of month to keep it dry.
Into February and the Atlantic will bring a week of quite mild weather, though alot of rain. Mid month sees a scandy high develop with cold and dry weather for the most before a northerly delivers heavier rains/snow/sleet for month end.

Just a feeling for the moment. I will revise and post a more detailled gut feeling in mid Nov.

junkyard

I'd say we'll just get more of the same old sh*te we're getting now, just like taxes, the less of it you want the more of it you'll get.:o

Supercell

A repeat of winter 2006 would do me, last year was terrible.

Deep Easterly

Danno wrote: »

French High Pressure cell (Bartlett High),

Good luck with your forecast. Although I really hope you are wrong with regards your October Bartlett High fest. Of all the most boring and most despicable synoptic set ups that set themselves up over Ireland (and there are many of them), the Bartlett is the one I hate the most. Mild cloudy nothingness, which sums up last autumn wonderfully. Surely we cant go through another autumn dominated by the weather black hole that is the Bartlett High?

M.T. Cranium

Some research I am doing is indicating major blocking for this winter over the western Atlantic. This could be the long-awaited cold and snowy winter for western Europe that seems quite overdue. The set-up may be a good one for northeasterly or easterly flow regimes ... we know from March 2006 that it can still happen nowadays, but it hasn't happened very often in the main winter months.

Obviously can't promise anything but the very quiet solar conditions also point in this direction. A good sign would be unusual cold and northerly flow patterns in October emanating from high pressure over northeast Greenland. This would be the expected first stage of the blocking that would develop into a large cyclonic swirl over eastern N America including a strong southerly flow across Newfoundland into Baffin Island. This is favoured by the unusually warm Atlantic temperatures around Labrador as autumn approaches.

I'll certainly post a revision to this idea if I see problems with the idea as we get closer to winter. I'm also expecting a colder than normal winter in western parts of North America, so ridges around 140 W and 50 W, troughs around 100 W and 10 W. This could allow Scandinavian blocking to link up through Iceland to Greenland. One analogue winter to consider would be 1968-69.

nacho libre

While i love cold winters it does have its downside in that you get more univited guests into the house- and no i'm not talking about supercell and his snow rabbit:D

Still, I hope you're predictions for this winter are correct M.T. Cranium. It would be good to have a notable winter event we can hopefully talk about in the years to come!

Supercell

nacho libre wrote: »

While i love cold winters it does have its downside in that you get more univited guests into the house- and no i'm not talking about supercell and his snow rabbit:D

Still, I hope you're predictions for this winter are correct M.T. Cranium. It would be good to have a notable winter event we'll never stop talking about in the years to come like Engerland winning the World Cup in '66!

Fixed that for you.

M.T. Cranium

Well now, game on ... this can't possibly be the coldest part of the winter before All Saints Day, can it?

forkassed

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Some research I am doing is indicating major blocking for this winter over the western Atlantic. This could be the long-awaited cold and snowy winter for western Europe that seems quite overdue. The set-up may be a good one for northeasterly or easterly flow regimes ... we know from March 2006 that it can still happen nowadays, but it hasn't happened very often in the main winter months.

Obviously can't promise anything but the very quiet solar conditions also point in this direction. A good sign would be unusual cold and northerly flow patterns in October emanating from high pressure over northeast Greenland. This would be the expected first stage of the blocking that would develop into a large cyclonic swirl over eastern N America including a strong southerly flow across Newfoundland into Baffin Island. This is favoured by the unusually warm Atlantic temperatures around Labrador as autumn approaches.

I'll certainly post a revision to this idea if I see problems with the idea as we get closer to winter. I'm also expecting a colder than normal winter in western parts of North America, so ridges around 140 W and 50 W, troughs around 100 W and 10 W. This could allow Scandinavian blocking to link up through Iceland to Greenland. One analogue winter to consider would be 1968-69.

Hope the rest of your research works out:cool:

kerry1960

I have seen the future ........:eek:.......this will be the Tralee/Listowel road on New Years Day........:p........yeah right:rolleyes:.

snubbleste

Some interesting predictions were made in this thread.. Others got it wrong, such as the UK Met Office

The Met Office admitted yesterday that it got it wrong over a seasonal forecast it issued last September predicting that the coming winter would be milder than average and drier than the same period last year...A statement on the winter forecast issued on 25 September said:
"The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year." ..
By the end of November, the Met Office was warning of colder weather to come, but still predicted a winter of overall warmer-than-average temperatures.