Polling/Voting/Supporters/Momentum Swings

tylerdurden94

I thought i would start this new thread to do with the surprise of the evictions lasnight.

Im not one for reading too much into polls as they give an indication but dont nesscessarily came across as gospel.

A few posters have posted up peoples odds and Sara was second from bottom if not bottom during the week if i can recall correct and now all of a sudden is one of the favs to win?

Yes she has been an ok housemate but nothing spectacular but now all of a sudden after the last few days actions of Rex and Darnell she has gained this huge momentum shift because now people feel sympathy for her.

I do feel aswell that this had a big influence to do with Rachels sudden surge after the Rex VT video stuff etc etc etc.

I have stated this before that people wouldnt nesscessarily be talking about them in the amount they do if other people didnt bring them into the frame.

Now Mikey has been polling for awhile as number one and has been touted to win but yet doesnt seem to do well in popularity. Example lastnight when Davina was calling out the numbers for the housemates he got some serious boos from the crowd, yet the likes of Rex Sara and Rachel got some good cheers.

Discuss

i hope this makes a little sense im a little hungover

ArmaniJeanss

Wow tyler, what an absolute mess of a post, I think you are more drunk than hungover :pac::pac::pac:

(By the way I don't think last nights eviction could be classed as much a surprise to be honest, it was always close in polls/odds though Sara was marginally favoured.)

Regarding polls in general I'd agree that they should only be taken as a guide only, some of them are open to multiple voting and all are open to group manipulation.

I've touched on the Mikey v Rachel issue before, where quite clearly either the polls are massively wrong or the bookies odds are massively wrong (the truth is somewhere in the middle).

What makes it more complicated this week is vote transference - will the 4%who vote for Mo vote again for his buddies Rex and Darnell when he (Mo) gets the vote on Tuesday. Ditto Kats vote to Rachel.

If Rex gets to the final 2/3 will the Rex haters transfer to whoever is against him?.

Is there really a Welsh vote, a Scottish vote etc.

The other issue you raise is momentum, and I think that this year it will be crucial - if any of the leading 5 have a good week and put on their charming caring funny hat for 6 days then they can win it.

Hope that helps (its as muddled as your initial post really, thank fcuk this is over this week).

jiminywimilybob

Im not a bit surprised Lisa went..I said she would go

Mr.Nice Guy

Sara has actually slipped with Paddy Power since last night which I'm guessing is largely due to the Darnell pool issue.

Odds:

Mikey 11 - 10
Rachel 5 - 2
Sara 4 - 1
Rex 8 - 1
Darnell 16 - 1
Kathreya 33 - 1
Mohamed 80 - 1

zuroph

i dont get how kat is gone to 33-1. i know she's seemed a little manipulative, but she hasnt done anything THAT bad, and is SURELY more popular than darnell.

tylerdurden94

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Wow tyler, what an absolute mess of a post, I think you are more drunk than hungover :pac::pac::pac:

(By the way I don't think last nights eviction could be classed as much a surprise to be honest, it was always close in polls/odds though Sara was marginally favoured.)

Regarding polls in general I'd agree that they should only be taken as a guide only, some of them are open to multiple voting and all are open to group manipulation.

I've touched on the Mikey v Rachel issue before, where quite clearly either the polls are massively wrong or the bookies odds are massively wrong (the truth is somewhere in the middle).

What makes it more complicated this week is vote transference - will the 4%who vote for Mo vote again for his buddies Rex and Darnell when he (Mo) gets the vote on Tuesday. Ditto Kats vote to Rachel.

If Rex gets to the final 2/3 will the Rex haters transfer to whoever is against him?.

Is there really a Welsh vote, a Scottish vote etc.

The other issue you raise is momentum, and I think that this year it will be crucial - if any of the leading 5 have a good week and put on their charming caring funny hat for 6 days then they can win it.

Hope that helps (its as muddled as your initial post really, thank fcuk this is over this week).

Why thank you for your kind words Yes its a bit of a mad post im sorry guys brain isnt function properly yet

Momentum for example went Sara's way this week while Darnells slipped back in the wrong direction.

Yeah i remember you said something to the fact about the odds but i think it was Call Me Jimmy who was making the comparison between Sara/Rachel about voter sympathy in one of the other threads i was reading.

tylerdurden94

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Sara has actually slipped with Paddy Power since last night which I'm guessing is largely due to the Darnell pool issue.

Odds:

Mikey 11 - 10
Rachel 5 - 2
Sara 4 - 1
Rex 8 - 1
Darnell 16 - 1
Kathreya 33 - 1
Mohamed 80 - 1

If thou she has slipped she rocketed up the chart from nowhere.

Posy

tylerdurden94 wrote: »

im sorry guys brian isnt function properly yet

tylerdurden94

^^^^^



Told you's it was an off day

jiminywimilybob

I am so gooing lumping on Kat..I still think she will win easily

ArmaniJeanss

Interesting Poll on DigSpy.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=887029

Rachel 32%, Rex 23%, Sara 21%, Michael 10%, Darnell 9%.

I think if he has any sort of decent week then Rex goes head to head with Rachel, and may get enough votes from Sara and Darnell fans on Friday to sneak it.

tylerdurden94

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Interesting Poll on DigSpy.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=887029

Rachel 32%, Rex 23%, Sara 21%, Michael 10%, Darnell 9%.

I think if he has any sort of decent week then Rex goes head to head with Rachel, and may get enough votes from Sara and Darnell fans on Friday to sneak it.

Jesus Kat is polling terrible in that :eek:

Mr.Nice Guy

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Interesting Poll on DigSpy.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=887029

Rachel 32%, Rex 23%, Sara 21%, Michael 10%, Darnell 9%.

I think if he has any sort of decent week then Rex goes head to head with Rachel, and may get enough votes from Sara and Darnell fans on Friday to sneak it.

Rachel would get the anti-Rex vote in such a scenario though. Rex consistently polls highest as the most unpopular housemate.

Someone made a good comparison to the year when Jason finished second to Nadia. Jason had a strong cult following as a Jungle Cat which helped him finish well but ultimately he was beaten comfortably when it got to the final stage. I think something similar could happen with Rex which is why I see him finishing around third but not being in the final duo.

PS I should apologise for mentioning Rex in the same breath as Jason. JCs 4 life. :cool:

tylerdurden94

This comes from the Sun Newspaper site:



Sara is fav at the moment! :eek:

zuroph

go to paddypower, go to forecast odds, very interesting, htey've all their eggs on mikey.

tylerdurden94

Interesting indeed.

Mr.Nice Guy

I thought Sara would have fallen off more due to her going back to Darnell again. Obviously a lot of people are putting a good few bets on her.

Keano

Well I hope Kat doesn't win it. Last night watching her in the diary room during the task I couldn't help but shout fake. She goes from all quiet to happy when she needs to. She is very cunning.

billy the squid

Amounts traded on each house mate in betfair

Mikey €1,296,666
Darnell €1,211,058
Rachel €826,820
Rex €732,891
Sara 262,486

Betting

Mikey 2.02
Rachel 4.1
Sara 6
Rex 11
Darnell 36

heymayo

Hey guys im wondering how does betfair work as in , i know one can lay and back. But i thought it would mean for e.g. Outright Winner , If i layed darnell €10 @ 10/1 i would get €110 profit if Darnell and he didnt win BB. But on Betfair site it says darnell is 34/1 to lay?? How is this?

link: http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20080896&ex=1

billy the squid

I think it works something like this

If you lay 10 on Darnell and he wins you would have to pay 110 if he won

If you laid darnell now and he won the bill would be 310

If Darnell doesn't win you get your ten back (and I think) the opposing betters tenner

With betfair you are not betting with a bookie, but with other users.

ArmaniJeanss

heymayo wrote: »

But i thought it would mean for e.g. Outright Winner , If i layed darnell €10 @ 10/1 i would get €110 profit if Darnell and he didnt win BB.

You have it totally backwards. If you lay Darnell €10 @ 10/1 you would get €10 profit if he didn't win but would lose €110 if he did win.

At his current price of 33/1 you would have to risk €330 to win that €10.

heymayo

so basicially by laying darnell im being the bookie and offering 33/1 odds, if some backs him for €10 and he loses i just get their €10?

ArmaniJeanss

heymayo wrote: »

so basicially by laying darnell im being the bookie and offering 33/1 odds, if some backs him for €10 and he loses i just get their €10?

Exactly.