Hurricane Ike (9)

billy the squid

Only a few days after Hurricane Hanna buggers off, TD9 will be visiting them as a hurricane, or so it is forcast.

irishgeo

that looks like a huge one.

sirpsycho

TS Ike now...

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR TWO.

maquiladora

Long way off but GFDL takes this to Cat 4 approaching Cuba.

sirpsycho

Cat4 already!

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THIS
WILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT HOW AN INTENSE HURRICANE LIKE IKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN
24-72 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AT THAT TIME.

Mullaghteelin

Its a pity its still too far away to get the Hurricane Hunters aircraft into it. Theres no way of knowing exactly how strong it really is. The eye looks quite small, and the strenght of these beasts is often underestimated until a plane flies in to investigate. It seems that almost no storms on record as far north and east as Ike have made landfall in the US, so if Ike makes it across it will be very unusual occurance in itself.

rc28

The thread title should be changed. Ike was a strong cat4 for a while yesterday and is still cat3- expected to strengthen in next couple of days as wind shear dies down. Some models take Ike into the gulf of mexico or hitting south Florida.
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=49276&st=85&start=85
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&date=2008-09-04_12:55

Snowbie

rc28 wrote: »

The thread title should be changed.

Done

The tax man

A friend of mine is heading to Florida tomorrow for 2 weeks. Could be an interesting holiday.:D

conceited

Going to be fairly bad for them poor people in cuba and haiti.
New Orleans again?

forkassed

IKE is freaking huge





40 or 50 foot waves hitting cuba in this vid

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg

sirpsycho

WunderBlog forecasting this to be a massive damage storm... ($10bn - $30bn).

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Big storm...

dfx-

Some comments abound that it's 700 miles wide :eek:

sirpsycho

Sorry for the big pic but here's the current one. Ike is HUGE now

Supercell

You can watch live streaming from local tv stations on http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

It seems likely now that Ike is going to make landfall near Galveston Texas as a cat 3 storm.
Ike is massive, going to be a lot of damage because of it.

conceited

According to CNN - NHS has stated "certain death" will occur if evacuation orders are not followed. I didn't know that NHS guaranteed results.
Homeland Security head Chertoff suggests staying in Texas if you are "fatigued with life". Is he suggesting suicide by Ike ?
Strange statements from Public agencies.

Hilarious.

maquiladora

The storm surge is going to be massive from this. That is what is going to kill people here, not the winds.

lizbeth

Supercell wrote: »

You can watch live streaming from local tv stations on http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html

It seems likely now that Ike is going to make landfall near Galveston Texas as a cat 3 storm.
Ike is massive, going to be a lot of damage because of it.

I am in Webster, TX, (in between Houston and Galveston) in one of the mandatory zones. The news guys are already talking about how they've not seen surf this high, this early, with previous storms. Galveston is already starting to flood. It is getting a bit scary, although its a gorgeous morning here so far. I'm actually evacuating to my parent's in an hour or so, heading about 10 miles further inland. I will take as many photos as I can and if you guys are interested, I'll post the link for it after I have power again. I should be on Twitter from the phone (at least as long as 3G lasts), lizzibetts, if anyone is interested.

Supercell

Just watching the steaming now, Galveston is ALREADY flooded, this is even before this thing hits proper. Its really looking bad.

sirpsycho

For uptodate visible sat pics I found a nice directory:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS/focus_regions/Full/Overview/vis_ir_background/goes_lowcloud/

Scroll to the bottom and you can browse the latest pics. Some great pics showing the border between dark and light and the storm.

maquiladora

Supercell wrote: »

Just watching the steaming now, Galveston is ALREADY flooded, this is even before this thing hits proper. Its really looking bad.

Yes, it started flooding at low tide and about 12 hours from landfall....

maquiladora

Dr Jeff Masters :

...poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time

...storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1082&tstamp=200809

ninebeanrows

This is looking catastrophic, i hope to hell everyone has left Galveston cause they will be ever so lucky to survive if they didn't.

It looks like it is going to be totally submerged and obliterated.

This could be similar to Katrina perhaps... worse.

conceited

This hurricane is a monster, jesus !
lizbeth I'm sure everyone would like to see some pics when you get time to post them, stay out of harms way.

sirpsycho

lizbeth wrote: »

I am in Webster, TX, (in between Houston and Galveston) in one of the mandatory zones. The news guys are already talking about how they've not seen surf this high, this early, with previous storms. Galveston is already starting to flood. It is getting a bit scary, although its a gorgeous morning here so far. I'm actually evacuating to my parent's in an hour or so, heading about 10 miles further inland. I will take as many photos as I can and if you guys are interested, I'll post the link for it after I have power again. I should be on Twitter from the phone (at least as long as 3G lasts), lizzibetts, if anyone is interested.

Link: Click here

Keep safe lizbeth

Snowbie

I agree, Ikea is a monster with tropical storm winds spreading out almost 200miles from the core.

I have added a new page to my personal website that is interactive. You can use radar and satellite overlays and add wind and forecast tracks to it too. A nice addition i think.

http://www.irlweather.com/wxtropical.php

Enjoy:)

Thrill

That is one big mother of a hurricane.

conceited

Looks likely this will be a cat 3 before it hits texas.God that thing is huge!

lizbeth

It's almost 9 here, we're getting really good wind, starting to see limbs down, but no rain to speak of. It's coming though. Galveston is going to be devastated. I've taken a few pics so far, but its just trees blowing. Probably have some to post in the next couple of days.
Local news is saying that there could be tens of thousands of rescues in the coming days from people on the coast who didn't evacuate. I heard earlier that 40% stayed in Galveston County, not sure how true it is.
Thanks for the thoughts, too, guys!

Liz

Snowbie

Inner eyewall now at 60miles off Galveston. Power also out there with just news crews and there generators still providing vids/pics.

Tornado watches now in affect also.
Buoy gust of 83m/ph just off Glaveston just there reported.
Best of luck Liz, wish i was there to experiece it, kinda in a meteorological weird way.:)

Edit:300,000 without power now

Hal1

It made landfall a few hours ago as a strong CAT2. I was glued to CNN. Poor feckers, ye think we had it bad here a few weeks ago...sheesh.