European Union Expansion

Riddle101

Pride Fighter wrote: »

So lets kick out Finland and Hungary for speaking an Asiatic language. Turkey is a great nation and it should join the European community, a precondition should be the reunification of Cyprus and if that can happen I see no problem.

The only way i can see Turkey agreeing to the reunification of Cyprus is if it unites under Turkey's rule.

Anyway what about after Turkey? should the EU continue to expand bringing in possibly Isreal or other far off countries, it's not just about Turkey, it's about the future as well

thehighground

Riddle101 wrote: »

The only way i can see Turkey agreeing to the reunification of Cyprus is if it unites under Turkey's rule.

Anyway what about after Turkey? should the EU continue to expand bringing in possibly Isreal or other far off countries, it's not just about Turkey, it's about the future as well

Go back to Turkey for a minute - apart from cultural differences, would anyone be concerned about the effect 70m new EU citizens would have on the rest of Europe, particularly as regard freedom of movement and work.

Turkey would also be entitled to the same number of MEPs as Germany (99) and more than France (78) or the UK (78).

cabinteelytom

Israel wouldn't accept the restraints on it's sovereignty. It would kick the Treaty of Lisbon as far as Formosa.

Scofflaw

cabinteelytom wrote: »

Israel wouldn't accept the restraints on it's sovereignty. It would kick the Treaty of Lisbon as far as Formosa.

...and the EU wouldn't be able to accept them in as an ethnic/religious state. Still, they seem happy enough with our trade.

cordially,
Scofflaw

djpbarry

diddley wrote: »

And it's not general to say that you think they integrate well because your wife did?

That would be quite a generalisation, yes. Of course, I said no such thing.

diddley wrote: »

Educate yourself about other European countries and I think you'll find its Muslims who are most unlikely to integrate.

Well, first off, let's define what "integrate" means, because it is rather subjective, isn't it?

thehighground wrote: »

Go back to Turkey for a minute - apart from cultural differences...

Take any two existing members of the EU and I'm sure you will find "cultural differences" between them. Put simply, it would be a bizarre reason to preclude international relations with a country.

thehighground wrote: »

would anyone be concerned about the effect 70m new EU citizens would have on the rest of Europe, particularly as regard freedom of movement and work.

Concerned? No, not really. I haven't checked the figures on this, but I'm guessing that the population increase experienced by the EU in 2004 was greater than 70 million? It would have at least been in the same ball park.

thehighground wrote: »

Turkey would also be entitled to the same number of MEPs as Germany (99) and more than France (78) or the UK (78).

Seems fair to me.

sink

djpbarry wrote: »

Concerned? No, not really. I haven't checked the figures on this, but I'm guessing that the population increase experienced by the EU in 2004 was greater than 70 million? It would have at least been in the same ball park.
Seems fair to me.

It was just over 70 million, if you include Bulgaria and Romania in 2007 add another 30 odd million.

thehighground

djpbarry wrote: »

Take any two existing members of the EU and I'm sure you will find "cultural differences" between them. Put simply, it would be a bizarre reason to preclude international relations with a country.

Concerned? No, not really. I haven't checked the figures on this, but I'm guessing that the population increase experienced by the EU in 2004 was greater than 70 million? It would have at least been in the same ball park.
Seems fair to me.

So, it hasn't dawned on you that if Turkey was to become a member of the EU, Turkey should be treated in the exact same way as every other EU country which might have repercussions on EU finances. Where is all the money going to come from to develop Turkey (GDP $9k per capita), bearing in mind that Ireland is still not a net contributor to the EU. Turkey joining the EU (average $34K) would have some effect on average European GDP!

You've also ignored the other question about freedom of movement - do you think freedom of movement for an additional 70m people in Europe would be a good thing for all concerned and would not have any repercussions for the other 27 European States?

ChocolateSauce

thehighground wrote: »

So, it hasn't dawned on you that if Turkey was to become a member of the EU, Turkey should be treated in the exact same way as every other EU country which might have repercussions on EU finances. Where is all the money going to come from to develop Turkey (GDP $9k per capita), bearing in mind that Ireland is still not a net contributor to the EU. Turkey joining the EU (average $34K) would have some effect on average European GDP!

You've also ignored the other question about freedom of movement - do you think freedom of movement for an additional 70m people in Europe would be a good thing for all concerned and would not have any repercussions for the other 27 European States?

First off, average EU GDP is a pretty pointless figure! What does it matter? And Turks earn more than Romanians or Bulgarians, so that argument is out. Another way of looking at the same situation is this: Turkey joining would add almost a trillion dollars of capital to the EU, and give us a land boarder with Iran and Iraq, which sounds like a situation with high trade potential. It would also strengthen the west's influence in the middle east.

As for freedom of movement, keep in mind that 70m people aren't suddenly going to vacate Turkey if they join. Turks are well educated and would be an asset to any country they went to. There have been no serious problems with the huge influx of eastern Europeans into Ireland (except the odd badly taken fast food order), and to say Turks would tip the balance is conjecture.

My only fear is a rise in the influcence of Islam is the west, but that is another issue.

djpbarry

thehighground wrote: »

Where is all the money going to come from to develop Turkey (GDP $9k per capita), bearing in mind that Ireland is still not a net contributor to the EU. Turkey joining the EU (average $34K) would have some effect on average European GDP!

Turkey’s GDP per capita is not far off Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Croatia and is actually well ahead of both Romania and Bulgaria. Turkey’s GDP growth is currently estimated at 5.4% compared to ~2.4% in the EU.

Comparing GDP’s at this point in time is rather pointless as Turkish membership of the EU is some way away yet. If the Turkish economy continues to perform well in the interim, then you have little to worry about.

thehighground wrote: »

You've also ignored the other question about freedom of movement - do you think freedom of movement for an additional 70m people in Europe would be a good thing for all concerned and would not have any repercussions for the other 27 European States?

No, I didn’t ignore it; I quite clearly stated that I was not terribly concerned about it.

Why are you throwing around a figure of 70,000,000 anyway? It’s not like the entire population of Turkey is going to just up and leave if they join the EU, are they? By way of comparison, what percentage of Poland’s population emigrated after they joined the EU? It’s estimated that there about 3 million Poles living in EU countries other than Poland. Now, it’s highly unlikely that all of them have emigrated since 2004, but for arguments sake, let’s say they have. That represents just under 8% of the population of Poland.

It’s also worth noting that the unemployment rate in Turkey has been, on average, falling in recent years, albeit slowly. This is obviously likely to continue if the economy continues to perform well.

EDIT: ^^I see I was beaten to it!

thehighground

ChocolateSauce wrote: »

First off, average EU GDP is a pretty pointless figure! What does it matter? And Turks earn more than Romanians or Bulgarians, so that argument is out. Another way of looking at the same situation is this: Turkey joining would add almost a trillion dollars of capital to the EU, and give us a land boarder with Iran and Iraq, which sounds like a situation with high trade potential. It would also strengthen the west's influence in the middle east.

GDP gives some indication about the standard of living. The Turks won't be buying too much of what we're exporting! Turks may earn more than Romanians & Bulgarians (slightly), but there 2.5 times more Turks (72m) than Bulgarians (7.5m) and Romanians (22m) to accommodate (and that is in addition to the EU just receiving 70m people fairly recently). As for the trillion dollars of capital - so you saying that Turkey would become a net contributor immediately to the EU? And didn't the IMF bail Turkey out when it went bust a few years ago - presumably they will have to pay that back.

As for Iraq/Iran sharing a border - that didn't stop them having a war, now did it a few years ago! Who is to say that Iran/Iraq might not be too happy with Turkey joining the EU.

As for freedom of movement, keep in mind that 70m people aren't suddenly going to vacate Turkey if they join. Turks are well educated and would be an asset to any country they went to. There have been no serious problems with the huge influx of eastern Europeans into Ireland (except the odd badly taken fast food order), and to say Turks would tip the balance is conjecture.

My only fear is a rise in the influence of Islam is the west, but that is another issue.

Well, I think there have been a fair few problems in Germany with Turkish emigrants. As for education, unless they speak the language of the country they are going to they are going to end up in low end jobs. And even if they have university qualifications, they would probably not be recognised in most European countries. As for the influx of eastern Europeans into Ireland (some more popular than others) - of course there were no problems when there were plenty of jobs - lets see what happens in the next couple of months! Over the weekend, a politician (Fine Gael) suggested that we pay them to go home. He obviously thinks we might be facing a few problems.

PS - having reservations about an Islamic influence won't go down very well with a few posters on this board. (Whatever happened to freedom of thought/speech?).

I would be a bit concerned as well about the Islamic influence - a lot of muslim countries were fairly secular and advanced 25+ years ago, but changed very radically very quickly (Iran & Afghanistan being the most obvious).

thehighground

djpbarry wrote: »

Turkey’s GDP per capita is not far off Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Croatia and is actually well ahead of both Romania and Bulgaria. Turkey’s GDP growth is currently estimated at 5.4% compared to ~2.4% in the EU.

Comparing GDP’s at this point in time is rather pointless as Turkish membership of the EU is some way away yet. If the Turkish economy continues to perform well in the interim, then you have little to worry about.
No, I didn’t ignore it; I quite clearly stated that I was not terribly concerned about it.

Why are you throwing around a figure of 70,000,000 anyway? It’s not like the entire population of Turkey is going to just up and leave if they join the EU, are they? By way of comparison, what percentage of Poland’s population emigrated after they joined the EU? It’s estimated that there about 3 million Poles living in EU countries other than Poland. Now, it’s highly unlikely that all of them have emigrated since 2004, but for arguments sake, let’s say they have. That represents just under 8% of the population of Poland.

It’s also worth noting that the unemployment rate in Turkey has been, on average, falling in recent years, albeit slowly. This is obviously likely to continue if the economy continues to perform well.

EDIT: ^^I see I was beaten to it!

Of course the entire population of Turkey isn't going to come over here, but its fair to say that those 3 millions Poles have made their presence felt right throughout Europe and in particular Ireland. So, at a guess we could have double the number of Turks as Poles coming here.

I think I've covered most other things in my last post.

djpbarry

thehighground wrote: »

Turks may earn more than Romanians & Bulgarians (slightly)…

You seem to be confusing GDP with average wage, but anyway…

Turkey’s GDP per capita is about 86% higher than Bulgaria’s; I’d say that’s a pretty substantial difference.

thehighground wrote: »

Well, I think there have been a fair few problems in Germany with Turkish emigrants.

There’s also been a fair few problems in the UK with Irish immigrants; that’s not to say that Irish immigrants haven’t been, on the whole, good for the British economy.

thehighground wrote: »

As for education, unless they speak the language of the country they are going to they are going to end up in low end jobs.

I’m not sure why that should apply specifically to Turks? It is true of every nationality, is it not? What’s stopping Turks from learning, say, English?

thehighground wrote: »

And even if they have university qualifications, they would probably not be recognised in most European countries.

Why not?

thehighground wrote: »

I would be a bit concerned as well about the Islamic influence - a lot of muslim countries were fairly secular and advanced 25+ years ago, but changed very radically very quickly (Iran & Afghanistan being the most obvious).

Both of which (Iran and Afghanistan) had a lot to do with external influence. As I have said numerous times before, an Islamic revolution in Turkey seems about as likely as Sinn Féin winning an outright majority in Ireland’s next general election.

thehighground wrote: »

… its fair to say that those 3 millions Poles have made their presence felt right throughout Europe and in particular Ireland.

And it’s been an overwhelmingly positive influence, has it not?

thehighground wrote: »

So, at a guess we could have double the number of Turks as Poles coming here.

At another guess, we could have zero Turks coming to Ireland should Turkey become a member of the EU; but guessing is rather pointless, isn’t it?

Scofflaw

thehighground wrote: »

GDP gives some indication about the standard of living. The Turks won't be buying too much of what we're exporting!

Actually, Turkey ranks 7th in the EU's top import and 5th in export markets (source).

cordially,
Scofflaw

WooPeeA

Turkey use military against civilian people and don't recognize one of European states. How about that?

thehighground

Ok dj, I just hope that (unlike you) the EU leaders think seriously about inviting Turkey to join the EU because as far as I can see, because of the sheer size of the country (and need for infrastructure and EU investment) and population. It doesn't have the most stable of governments either.

Bulgaria has a population of 7.5 million. Turkey has 72m. Bulgaria would not require the same investment from the EU in infrastructure as Turkey because it is a much smaller country/lower population than Turkey.

There have been no problems with the Irish in the UK (other than we were treated very badly initially - and the IRA bombing campaign in the 80s didn't help either of course). You do realise that culturally, Irish people are very close to our next door neighbours!

As for the language issue - it applies to everyone who seeks work in a country where their own language isn't the first language. I personally found it very difficult language wise having to communicate with foreign doctors/ nurses recently where English wasn't their first language.

As for university degrees - university may not be recognised by relevant professional association and so graduates not accepted for membership. At a minimum the may need to sit exams here in Ireland for their degree to be recognised. I've come across a fair few Poles who have very good degrees and who are working in shops etc.

Fairplay to you for your 'wing and a prayer' confidence that you can control all influences on Turkey As for Afghanistan - I found "The Bookseller of Kabul" to be a good read on how a progressive country, with well educated people can change very quickly (and not for the best).

As regards Turkish people coming to Ireland to work - hopefully our Government dont indulge in your 'wing & a prayer' planning that it will be aright on the night as they say.

thehighground

Scofflaw wrote: »

Actually, Turkey ranks 7th in the EU's top import and 5th in export markets (source).

cordially,
Scofflaw

Bet imports from EU into Turkey are machinery & chemicals from Germany.

Exports to EU - some food - oranges etc. but probably mostly (workshop) clothing.

djpbarry

WooPeeA wrote: »

Turkey use military against civilian people and don't recognize one of European states. How about that?

I’m not sure about your fist claim, but as for Cyprus; well, it’s hardly an insurmountable problem. Besides, I never said that Turkey’s membership should be unconditional.

thehighground wrote: »

Ok dj, I just hope that (unlike you) the EU leaders think seriously about inviting Turkey to join the EU because as far as I can see, because of the sheer size of the country (and need for infrastructure and EU investment) and population…

…what? Are you going to finish that statement?

thehighground wrote: »

There have been no problems with the Irish in the UK…

Really? No crime committed in the UK by Irish nationals? No problems whatsoever?

thehighground wrote: »

You do realise that culturally, Irish people are very close to our next door neighbours!

Could you outline some of these cultural similarities and, in doing so, explain why Turkish culture is so completely outlandish by comparison?

thehighground wrote: »

As for the language issue - it applies to everyone who seeks work in a country where their own language isn't the first language.

Yes, it does. So I have no idea why you brought it up in a discussion about Turkey and the EU.

thehighground wrote: »

As for university degrees - university may not be recognised by relevant professional association and so graduates not accepted for membership.

Again, what has this got to do with Turkey, specifically? There are institutions in Ireland that offer “degrees” that are not worth the paper they are written on; is that a reason to kick Ireland out of the EU?

thehighground wrote: »

As regards Turkish people coming to Ireland to work - hopefully our Government dont indulge in your 'wing & a prayer' planning that it will be aright on the night as they say.

:rolleyes:

I have quite clearly explained, based on current and projected economic conditions, why I do not believe Turks will migrate en masse to Ireland. If you see a flaw in my reasoning, feel free to point it out.

I notice that you have not mentioned the huge potential benefits of EU membership for Turkey; most significantly, free access for Irish businesses to a market containing 70 million people.

WooPeeA

djpbarry wrote: »

I’m not sure about your fist claim, but as for Cyprus; well, it’s hardly an insurmountable problem. Besides, I never said that Turkey’s membership should be unconditional.

They use their army against their own citizens, a nation of Kurds, bombing their villages. I know there's many rebels hiding themselves in those villages, but even if all of them would be terrorists, that's not how European country should behave.

I can't imagine that or any similar kind of act with European flag putted on the tanks.

limklad

Riddle101 wrote: »

Who here is for EU expansion, do you like the idea of countries like Turkey coming into the EU? and what about the future, who's gonna be next on the EU list, maybe Russia, maybe Iraq or Iran or possibly Isreal. Should the EU expand as far as it can go to possibly even Asia? or should it just stay within the boundaries of Europe?

I ask this because a guy in my class in college thinks the EU should expand, why not?

But me, i'm against EU expansion. Don't get me wrong the EU has been good to us and it would ensure peace, but at the same time i feel like the EU is too domineering, always coming out with new treaties for more power or trying to bring out a new legistration, and i think that the more the EU grows the more we as a country lose in influence and even more so that the EU will look more like a United States of Europe then a Union. Oh and no i do not support Liberatas if anyone thinks i'm listening to them or work for them, it's just a simple belief of mine.

Russia will never be part of the EU. They are way too big to incorporate and will not like to be told what to do.
Iraq/Iran not in Europe or have European ideals like Cyprus, so NO.
Turkey - I am in favour of letting them Join, They be good for the EU, they are more European than French President says. They been extensively involved over the last two centuries in European affairs and always been looking to be more involved in Europe. It will stop Turkey from current infighting that taking place at the moment and insuring better equal rights for both minorities and women.

Israel will not be part of Europe beside sports and Eurovision competitions. Turkey is more align with the EU than Israel is. Israel like Russia will not like to be told what to do, especially they are a small state and will have little influence when joining.

The EU Project was setup for a stable Europe, war free Europe, a talking shop and co-operating on common matters. So expansion will fulfil that role. There are many more European yet to Join. Remainder of Balkans states (former Yugoslavia states and Albania) and former Soviet states (We only have three Baltic's states), Switzerland, Norway and Iceland.
Switzerland & Norway referendums fail.

Like wise a No Vote for Lisbon is not stopping expansion of the EU. The French President and German Chancellor is stopping expansion of the EU. The NICE treaty provides for expansion and the rules beyond 25 states. EU cannot kick us out for voting NO but EU states can make it difficult for us if we do it again.

EU may be too domineering at the moment but will be more domineering with Lisbon treaty.
Lisbon only delay NICE rules for another few years with addition rules for QVM and expanding areas of legislation of QVM of existing Areas of power hand over from members states to EU under previous treaties with some exceptions such as TAX.
Lisbon gives greater powers to the European parliament and States parliaments more influence, greater power for EU courts, slight restructure of the EU pillars and EU commission, EU charter of fundamental rights into Law. Right for EU states governments to self amend the existing EU treaties. I think I got the basics here.

Personality After some time since the Referendum and many debates later, I feel that the EU under Lisbon will have too much power and a step too far.

As for Expansion: I in favour of it, Gives more stability to prospective states.
Getting out of the EU: There is lots of Good and Bad with the existing EU, but I am against that idea of getting out of the EU. The EU has benefit with us in it as it used (or Advertised) us as a benefit for Joining the EU to create a more stable war free Europe.

oscarBravo

limklad wrote: »

Lisbon gives greater powers to the European parliament...

A power shift from the non-directly elected EU bodies to the directly-elected. This is bad, why?

...and States parliaments more influence...

This is bad, why?

...greater power for EU courts...

Over matters of EU law. Bad, why?

...slight restructure of the EU pillars and EU commission...

Bad, why?

...EU charter of fundamental rights into Law.

Bad, why?

Right for EU states governments to self amend the existing EU treaties.

Nope. Same amendment procedure (unanimous ratification by all member states), but no need for a whole treaty for every amendment.

Personality After some time since the Referendum and many debates later, I feel that the EU under Lisbon will have too much power and a step too far.

Based on what you've posted, I'm not at all clear on why you feel that.

limklad

oscarBravo wrote: »

A power shift from the non-directly elected EU bodies to the directly-elected. This is bad, why? This is bad, why? Over matters of EU law. Bad, why? Bad, why? Bad, why? Nope. Same amendment procedure (unanimous ratification by all member states), but no need for a whole treaty for every amendment. Based on what you've posted, I'm not at all clear on why you feel that.

I only mentioned the Fact of Lisbon that would only change with has nothing to do with prevention of Expansion the Union.

Since you want to know why the Lisbon treaty is bad for us.
We are eroding more and more of our sovereign with each treaty and giving Europe more say on our matters that effect us. Each state is Different and effects of legislation here can be different on another state. What good for one group of nations is bad or destructive for others.

Larger Nations have more say and Smaller nations have less say under the new QMV rules.

European Commission IS NOT an elected body formed by EU Parliament nor its by its citizens. These are bureaucrats not elected officials. This will not change under Lisbon.

For example the "Aland Islands" autonomous region under Finland were charged by the EU commission by referral to the EU Court of Justice for sale of Snuff.
Here A Report from the BBC.
They (The Aland Island) who had no say in EU legislation were not allowed to response and defend themselves and the EU Commission Knew this. They (The Aland Island) do not have an representative in the EU Parliament. The EU Commission also knew that Finland could not prosecute Aland Islands because of the autonomous agreement, therefore putting pressure on Finland by referring them to EU Court of Justice, who will have Finland Fined for the offence they never commit, and knowingly it would aggravation the union of Finland and Aland Island. The very fact that Aland Island (guilty or not) not been allowed to defend themselves is very wrong. There is no true justice there. This is an Commission who many have doggy backgrounds are in full effect running of the union putting forward legislation on all EU citizens.
EU Commisioner debate
I do not like this guy Nigel Farage (UKIP) because he has his own adgendas, but I cannot find fault in his comments about the EU commissioners.
We were told in the early days of the Maastricht Treaty that this would not happen.

Another case from Sweden Laval, where Swedish school were built by a Latvian construction company were paid less than Swedish minimum wage. EU Court found in Favour of the Latvian Construction Company. Please note the Swedish Union were not against the Latvian Company building the school, but were against workers been paid less than the minimum wage.

There was several articles in the media about the Corporation Tax could be changed under Lisbon by the EU Court of Justice.
Article 1
Article 2
No one response even a small bit sufficiently replied about how this could not happen because they say we would have a Veto on Tax Matters. A Veto is useless in the EU Court of Justice. They quickly changed the subject to babbled off about how the recession would happen, lack of investments, if we do not vote "Yes" and that we would lose Jobs etc, all scaremongering tactics by the Yes campaign. By using Threats shows that Lisbon is not good for us. Today even with a yes vote we still lose jobs and our economy is in a downward spiral with the credit crisis.

With the Reaction of Europe politicians after the "No" vote. I believe the Principles of the EU was born under is now Dead. Comments coming from Europe attacking the Irish Referendum is a big blow to democracy here, where larger nations think that they can bully us to vote yes with threats just like Cowan says, "we are either In Europe or Out". He cannot force us neither can European Politicians out of the EU and was it an empty threat but the manner he said it was an attack on the Voters to vote his way.

It is not Ireland Fault that the other 26 EU Governments Failed to have a referendums in their countries for their Citizens to rubber stamp the Lisbon treaty. We will never truly know if the EU voters prefer Lisbon or not or if they agree with their government. Lisbon was written to bypass the people after the Failed EU Constitution which was rejected by French and Dutch voters. They (French and German governments) are using the Lisbon Treaty to block EU expansion unless they get a yes vote. denying the Balkans states , turkey and ex soviet nations from joining the EU. I am in favour of them joining and bring more stability to Europe.

If Lisbon is truly good for us, then why wasn't the facts explained properly without threats of doom and gloom with EU grinding to a halt with Expansion? Without Lisbon, There is nothing stopping the EU governments in getting an EU representative in future negotiations in trade for example in energy with non EU nations for example Russia, where currently each nation have a separate deal with Russia. The NICE Treaty have Rules for Expansion beyond 25 nations!!

PHB

There was several articles in the media about the Corporation Tax could be changed under Lisbon by the EU Court of Justice.
Article 1
Article 2
No one response even a small bit sufficiently replied about how this could not happen because they say we would have a Veto on Tax Matters. A Veto is useless in the EU Court of Justice.

The argument about the ECJ is somewhat valid. That is of course, assuming we follow what the ECJ does, which people don't necessarily have to do.

What I want to know is ... How does Lisbon effect this? This was the case before Lisbon, and is still the case now. The only possible argument is that it gives the ECJ superiority a treaty basis, but since it already assumed superiority, and has had it since the 70s, there's no real difference.

If Lisbon is truly good for us, then why wasn't the facts explained properly without threats of doom and gloom with EU grinding to a halt with Expansion?

That's a great question. However, in reality, its two questions muddle together.

Is Lisbon good for us?
Do Irish politicians try and convince us in the right way?

There's no doubt in my mind that both sides of the debate were horrid in their tactics, both the government and Libertas used fear to get what they want. One was better at it though.

Is Lisbon good for us should not be measured by what the politicians think is best though, I think we can all agree on that.