World Cup outright-Paraguay

patmac

Just backed Paraguay @ 90/1 to win the World Cup, they seem at the moment to be on a par with Argentina and Brazil, I was particularly impressed with their spirit and resolve against Argentina away last Saturday night earning a commendable 1-1 draw and the 2 previous results 2-0 at home to Brazil and 3-0 away to Chile were also excellent, I know it's a long way to go to 2010 but bearing in mind that no European side has won the World Cup outside of Europe this represents excellent value especially as the price is bound to drop once the WC has started

damnyanks

Why not just load up on countries who are most likely to qualify but never win. Then when the world cup comes around you can sell it off.

Dodge

You'd need to have a decent bank to allow this bet to stand for a year or so before trading out. They should qualify though

I watched them last night against Venezuela and, although winning comfortably, didn't look too impressive

ArmaniJeanss

Re backing with the intention to lay when they qualify, what would the expectation of their price upon qualifying be?. I'd estimate somewhere between 50&70/1. You'd need them to be 45/1 before you'd double your money (before commission), so not sure this is a profitable winning strategy.

At this stage If I backed a decent priced outsider, I'd be content to let it run and not think of bailing out until they hopefully get to the last 16 or 8.

thedini

it is a winning strategy if u are very confident in your selection, even if the price doesn't dramatically change u can probably achieve a 50% return which beats the bank anyday.:)

ArmaniJeanss

thedini wrote: »

it is a winning strategy if u are very confident in your selection, even if the price doesn't dramatically change u can probably achieve a 50% return which beats the bank anyday.:)

Who can we be reasonably confident will definitely qualify and isn't a likely winner (lets say is currently 50/1 or bigger on the outrights)?

I think we can exclude Europe and SouthAfrica teams as the qualification process is too difficult to be sure of anyone.

I think it comes down to 5 certain qualifiers.
2 from ConCacaf (Mexico 54/1 and USA 139/1)
2 from Asia (Japan 499/1 and SouthKorea (unquoted on Befair ??).
1 from SthAmerica (Paraguay 94/1).

So lets see if their price on the day they qualify would give us a 50 -> 100% profit.

Obviously there is a mathematical chance they won't qualify, so there is a risk of ruin factor in the bet.

thedini

I know what you are saying, but even if u dont get say 50-100% roi is it not a profitable bet if the shift in odds will still make it worthwhile

Dodge

thedini wrote: »

I know what you are saying, but even if u dont get say 50-100% roi is it not a profitable bet if the shift in odds will still make it worthwhile

So what would you consider a worthwhile return for a year long investment?

thedini

Dodge wrote: »

So what would you consider a worthwhile return for a year long investment?

it depends on an individuals mentality and how risk averse they are. But in this example anything over 15% has to be worthwhile for a reasonable sum. no point betting a tenner say

Dodge

thedini wrote: »

it depends on an individuals mentality and how risk averse they are. But in this example anything over 15% has to be worthwhile for a reasonable sum. no point betting a tenner say

15% return on a year long investment isn't good at all IMO

thedini

Dodge wrote: »

15% return on a year long investment isn't good at all IMO

thats your opinion, try getting that in a bank imo

Dodge

thedini wrote: »

try getting that in a bank imo

Ah, that ol' chestnut

thedini

Dodge wrote: »

Ah, that ol' chestnut

what do u consider a good roi?

dsmythy

Thought i might resurrect this thread. Paraguay are not 90/1 anymore. Since the OP started the thread they've recorded three wins and a loss. They stand top of the table four points clear. As already mentioned they have been giving Brazil and Argentina good games when they meet.

Paraguay are still 70 on Betfair and best priced 66/1 in bookies.

Warper

I was looking at this myself and one team that stands out are the Ivory Coast @ 50-1 Skybet. This looks generous, for a team playing in their home continent who are definitely going to qualify - they will be a lot of peoples dark horses for the WC itself and have a number of top-class players playing for the elite clubs in Europe. You will need to get on now as they are shortening by the week (just won 5 zip last Sat).